Gopher Warrior
Banned
- Joined
- Dec 15, 2009
- Messages
- 3,915
- Reaction score
- 0
- Points
- 36
With people now trying to figure out who is going to do what for this year's Gophers, I took a quick look back to see what I was thinking before last season began. Who surprised you in 2010-11, good or bad, relative to what you thought they would do before the year began?
I thought Mbakwe could be good, even great, but wasn't expecting the incredible numbers he put up (must be my obvious bias coming through again [sarcasm added]). Outside of that, not much in the way of surprises despite the roster challenges the team faced. Below are excerpts from my Pre-Season Thoughts post last year and actual results (actual results and current commentary in bold - the rest was written prior to the 2010-11 season beginning). I'm not sure what possessed me to try to come up with a scoring distribution - it's challenging to try and come within a point or so of someone's average.
--------
Player, projected points per game, actual points per game
Joseph......13 ppg 11.2
Hoffarber...12 ppg 13.6
Sampson...11 ppg 10.2
Mbakwe.....9 ppg 13.9
Williams.....8 ppg 6.8
Nolen........7 ppg 8.4
Iverson......6 ppg 5.4
Hollins........4 ppg 4.5
I didn't include Armelin, Walker and Ahanmisi in that exercise a year ago. Those three wound up having the lowest three scoring averages on the team.
------
Al Nolen
A 2010-11 line of 7 ppg, 5 apg, 3 to 4 rpg and 3 spg is reasonable to expect. An improvement of his lifetime field goal percentage of 34.1% would be nice to see, but there is no reason to believe that he’ll shoot much better this year.
Actual: 8.4 ppg, 3.7 apg, 3.6 rpg, 2.4 spg. Shot 33.3%.
Blake Hoffarber
Blake’s offensive rating was the best in the nation and is the team’s highest returning scorer, but he has been somewhat limited in being able to create his own shot. In 2010-11, Hoffarber may need to be a little more aggressive in his shot selection. While the offensive rating may decrease a bit in his senior season, the two-time Espy winner has shown he can make a clutch shot and adding just a touch of “greed” to his game could benefit this team. 12 points per game.
Actual: 13.6 ppg, picking up some of Devoe's points. Hoffarber's Offensive Rating fell from 131.7 to 113.8 (still a very good figure). His %Shots went from 17.9% up to 22.6%.
Ralph Sampson III
At times last year he seemed fired up for a moment… but that would only last 20 seconds. I’d like to see a more aggressive and passionate RSIII with some consistency, but it’s not in his character. However, his skills are good enough that he could find himself as an All-Conference player in one of his final two years at the U. I expect Ralph to exceed the expectations of many this season. 11 points per game.
Actual: 10.2 ppg, 2.0 ppg higher than his sophomore year. I don't know that he exceed the expectations of many, but it was a solid year.
Colton Iverson
Being a big guy that isn’t afraid to mix it up on the blocks a bit, he can find himself in foul trouble. If Iverson can cut down on the turnovers and convert free throws attempts at a non Shaq-like rate (51.7% career FT percentage), he should have a solid year and play an important role on this team. Whether or not he starts, I’d like to see his minutes get into the low 20s per game if he is doing the right things on the court...During his career, 41.1% of Colt’s blocked shots have come in only 9.0% of his games played.
Actual: 5.4 ppg. Foul issues continued (5.1% fouls committed; 18 games with 3 or more fouls, including a streak of 8 consecutive Big Ten games with at least 3 fouls), as did turnovers (24.0% TO rate). FT% was slightly better at 57.3%. Minutes were only 18.3/game. Misleading shot blocking numbers due to a couple of big games continued to show - shot block percent each season from freshman year to junior year: 9.0%, 6.3%, 4.3%. Fine numbers, but 9 blocks in second collegiate game ever boosted his freshman year.
Devoe Joseph
If healthy, Joseph should average 12 points or better, along with 3 rebs and 3 assists.
Actual: 11.2 ppg, 3.5 apg, 2.2 rpg. Only played in 8 games.
Rodney Williams
With some space he will make your jaw drop. In a half court set, however, he has a ways to go. I believe he is still another year off before potentially becoming a star in the Big Ten, but he should be an important contributor to this year’s team and will certainly lead the team in highlights. Along with Sampson, Rodney is another guy who I would love to get a little more aggressive and mean at times… but here also it doesn’t seem to be in his make-up. 8 ppg.
Actual: 6.8 ppg. NBA nonsense quickly died down.
Trevor Mbakwe
Mbakwe is a man. Physically impressive at 6’8”, 240, he has no problem going to war inside, which he will have to do in the Big Ten. Many of the Gopher faithful seem to have somewhat inflated expectations of Mbakwe, but certainly he will be very good, if not great, this year. 8 points and 5 boards should be attainable and with the bigs on the roster would probably be enough to help the team. However, the potential is there to produce something more in the 12 point, 8 board range this season.
Don’t expect to see Trevor popping shots from 15+ feet out with any regularity, but he will take the ball to the rim and have some nice outings in the scoring column and he will have some big rebounding nights. In addition, prepare to see some vicious shot blocks from this young man. 9 ppg.
Actual: 13.9 ppg, 10.5 rpg. He was great, not good and his numbers flat out exceeded my expectations.
Maurice Walker
I’d be happy with 10 minutes per game where he lays his body on the opposition, tosses in a bucket or two, grabs a couple of boards… all while improving his conditioning and physique over the course of the year.
Actual: For 12 games, things were going as planned. 9.6 mpg, a bucket or two a game (3.2 ppg), 2.8 rpg.
Austin Hollins
In year one, Hollins needs to play consistent basketball and be an all around player – he is capable of doing a number of things well on the court. His Inspector Gadget arms will help on defense and if he can consistently play tough d when subbed into games, he will get his minutes. 4 ppg.
Actual: 4.5 ppg, 17.0 mpg, impressive 4.4% steal%.
Maverick Ahanmisi
Listed generously at 6’2”, he may see limited action at point guard during portions of the non-conference schedule.
Actual: Wound up playing just over 300 minutes due to roster changes.
Chip Armelin
He likes to shoot the ball when on offense. Has good spring to his step and will have his moments against lesser competition in limited minutes this early winter. However, his offensive tendencies may not work well in this offense and unless his defensive play is consistently impressive, I could see him getting a quick hook when he does make appearances in games. True, the Gophers do need go to scorers, but I don’t think Chip is the answer this year... At a minimum, a fun player to watch that will occasionally impress during limited appearances… at best, a contributor who adds a scoring punch and aggressiveness on offense.
Actual: In line with expectations.
I thought Mbakwe could be good, even great, but wasn't expecting the incredible numbers he put up (must be my obvious bias coming through again [sarcasm added]). Outside of that, not much in the way of surprises despite the roster challenges the team faced. Below are excerpts from my Pre-Season Thoughts post last year and actual results (actual results and current commentary in bold - the rest was written prior to the 2010-11 season beginning). I'm not sure what possessed me to try to come up with a scoring distribution - it's challenging to try and come within a point or so of someone's average.
--------
Player, projected points per game, actual points per game
Joseph......13 ppg 11.2
Hoffarber...12 ppg 13.6
Sampson...11 ppg 10.2
Mbakwe.....9 ppg 13.9
Williams.....8 ppg 6.8
Nolen........7 ppg 8.4
Iverson......6 ppg 5.4
Hollins........4 ppg 4.5
I didn't include Armelin, Walker and Ahanmisi in that exercise a year ago. Those three wound up having the lowest three scoring averages on the team.
------
Al Nolen
A 2010-11 line of 7 ppg, 5 apg, 3 to 4 rpg and 3 spg is reasonable to expect. An improvement of his lifetime field goal percentage of 34.1% would be nice to see, but there is no reason to believe that he’ll shoot much better this year.
Actual: 8.4 ppg, 3.7 apg, 3.6 rpg, 2.4 spg. Shot 33.3%.
Blake Hoffarber
Blake’s offensive rating was the best in the nation and is the team’s highest returning scorer, but he has been somewhat limited in being able to create his own shot. In 2010-11, Hoffarber may need to be a little more aggressive in his shot selection. While the offensive rating may decrease a bit in his senior season, the two-time Espy winner has shown he can make a clutch shot and adding just a touch of “greed” to his game could benefit this team. 12 points per game.
Actual: 13.6 ppg, picking up some of Devoe's points. Hoffarber's Offensive Rating fell from 131.7 to 113.8 (still a very good figure). His %Shots went from 17.9% up to 22.6%.
Ralph Sampson III
At times last year he seemed fired up for a moment… but that would only last 20 seconds. I’d like to see a more aggressive and passionate RSIII with some consistency, but it’s not in his character. However, his skills are good enough that he could find himself as an All-Conference player in one of his final two years at the U. I expect Ralph to exceed the expectations of many this season. 11 points per game.
Actual: 10.2 ppg, 2.0 ppg higher than his sophomore year. I don't know that he exceed the expectations of many, but it was a solid year.
Colton Iverson
Being a big guy that isn’t afraid to mix it up on the blocks a bit, he can find himself in foul trouble. If Iverson can cut down on the turnovers and convert free throws attempts at a non Shaq-like rate (51.7% career FT percentage), he should have a solid year and play an important role on this team. Whether or not he starts, I’d like to see his minutes get into the low 20s per game if he is doing the right things on the court...During his career, 41.1% of Colt’s blocked shots have come in only 9.0% of his games played.
Actual: 5.4 ppg. Foul issues continued (5.1% fouls committed; 18 games with 3 or more fouls, including a streak of 8 consecutive Big Ten games with at least 3 fouls), as did turnovers (24.0% TO rate). FT% was slightly better at 57.3%. Minutes were only 18.3/game. Misleading shot blocking numbers due to a couple of big games continued to show - shot block percent each season from freshman year to junior year: 9.0%, 6.3%, 4.3%. Fine numbers, but 9 blocks in second collegiate game ever boosted his freshman year.
Devoe Joseph
If healthy, Joseph should average 12 points or better, along with 3 rebs and 3 assists.
Actual: 11.2 ppg, 3.5 apg, 2.2 rpg. Only played in 8 games.
Rodney Williams
With some space he will make your jaw drop. In a half court set, however, he has a ways to go. I believe he is still another year off before potentially becoming a star in the Big Ten, but he should be an important contributor to this year’s team and will certainly lead the team in highlights. Along with Sampson, Rodney is another guy who I would love to get a little more aggressive and mean at times… but here also it doesn’t seem to be in his make-up. 8 ppg.
Actual: 6.8 ppg. NBA nonsense quickly died down.
Trevor Mbakwe
Mbakwe is a man. Physically impressive at 6’8”, 240, he has no problem going to war inside, which he will have to do in the Big Ten. Many of the Gopher faithful seem to have somewhat inflated expectations of Mbakwe, but certainly he will be very good, if not great, this year. 8 points and 5 boards should be attainable and with the bigs on the roster would probably be enough to help the team. However, the potential is there to produce something more in the 12 point, 8 board range this season.
Don’t expect to see Trevor popping shots from 15+ feet out with any regularity, but he will take the ball to the rim and have some nice outings in the scoring column and he will have some big rebounding nights. In addition, prepare to see some vicious shot blocks from this young man. 9 ppg.
Actual: 13.9 ppg, 10.5 rpg. He was great, not good and his numbers flat out exceeded my expectations.
Maurice Walker
I’d be happy with 10 minutes per game where he lays his body on the opposition, tosses in a bucket or two, grabs a couple of boards… all while improving his conditioning and physique over the course of the year.
Actual: For 12 games, things were going as planned. 9.6 mpg, a bucket or two a game (3.2 ppg), 2.8 rpg.
Austin Hollins
In year one, Hollins needs to play consistent basketball and be an all around player – he is capable of doing a number of things well on the court. His Inspector Gadget arms will help on defense and if he can consistently play tough d when subbed into games, he will get his minutes. 4 ppg.
Actual: 4.5 ppg, 17.0 mpg, impressive 4.4% steal%.
Maverick Ahanmisi
Listed generously at 6’2”, he may see limited action at point guard during portions of the non-conference schedule.
Actual: Wound up playing just over 300 minutes due to roster changes.
Chip Armelin
He likes to shoot the ball when on offense. Has good spring to his step and will have his moments against lesser competition in limited minutes this early winter. However, his offensive tendencies may not work well in this offense and unless his defensive play is consistently impressive, I could see him getting a quick hook when he does make appearances in games. True, the Gophers do need go to scorers, but I don’t think Chip is the answer this year... At a minimum, a fun player to watch that will occasionally impress during limited appearances… at best, a contributor who adds a scoring punch and aggressiveness on offense.
Actual: In line with expectations.
