Bayfieldgopher
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Gopher Nations take on 2011-12 Roster
- Thread starter Bayfieldgopher
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DontHassleTheHoff
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Although I haven't seen Oto play all that much, I would love to see a perimeter threat to stretch the defense in the line-up.
cncmin
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This was well-written and a good synopsis. Here is my additional take.
COULD 3-POINT SHOOTING GET ANY WORSE?
Gopher Nation said that the 3-point shooting couldn't get any worse...actually, it easily could. The loss of Minnesota's best-ever 3-point shooter (Hoffarber) and one of its best passers could result in even less open looks, and certainly a loss from the 2-guard in 3-point shooting percentage. Now, one can argue that if we get a point guard back, we could see some drivin' and dishin', as Nolen was able to provide the first half of last season. We need that, sorely. But the two Hollins, Osenicks, and hopefully some others could provide a boost.
RODNEY
Rodney, IMO, is the major factor for this team. Often his presence on the floor simply resulted in the Gophers playing 4-on-5 offense plus a stationary, pausing perimeter passer. He needs to get stronger and more confident. The few times last season that he took the ball to the rim aggressively he looked good, even if he didn't always finish near the hoop. But 9 times out of 10 (or probably worse) that he touched the ball, he did absolutely nothing with it - not a drive, not an interior pass, not a shot. While Tubby didn't have a lot of player options, his biggest coaching fault this year was in continuing to put Rodney on the floor for large minutes.
Either a big improvement in Rodney, or a severe drop in playing time for him, are required for the Gophers to make the tournament next year.
IVERSON, JOSEPH, ARMELIN, AND THE RESULT OF PLAYING FAVORITES
What in the world happened to Iverson? He was tough, mean, had a snarl, had moves, set nasty picks, and played awfully well at the end of the 09-'10 season. And for some reason, he took a gigantic step backward this year, hardly able to defend, catch a ball, shoot, or anything.
I have a feeling he had a mental issue being that he basically outplayed Sampson badly when he was in there the year before, yet Tubby opened this season by playing Iverson relatively little. That has to hurt the psyche of about anyone (Devoe Joseph, another one).
To me, part of the problem on this team was very similar to what happened under Tim Brewster on the football team: the coach plays favorites, instead of rewarding someone for performance. Iverson was clearly better than Sampson to end 2010, yet Sampson ended up getting much greater playing time than Iverson to open this one. Joseph was clearly a huge contributor to end 2010, yet even when he got off of his first suspension this year, he was part of the "second five" and played with the other starters relatively little compared to his skill set. Chip Armelin put in a lot of effort and showed very good results in the middle of this past season, only to barely see his minutes improve to show for it. Meanwhile, Rodney and Ralph, while inconsistent and non-aggressive, were rewarded with major minutes each and every game. Players have pride, and their discontent rises quickly when they out-play or out-hustle others, for no reward. Joseph and Iverson were, in my opinion, huge casualties of this, and Armelin may potentially be the next one.
This was quite akin to what quickly ended Tim Brewster's head coaching career: his complete reliance on a bad QB who couldn't lead the team to score, instead of making even the least attempt to open up competition to guys who simply showed much better results (i.e., Gray) in being able to move the football down the field. It was little wonder, to me anyway, that when Horton finally started playing Gray more the final two games last year, the offense, and thus also the defense, got excited, woke up, the offense finally moved the football, and won two big games that no one gave them a chance in. If the football team can do it, the basketball team may find their way too.
DEFENSE
Finally, DEFENSE. Tubby's teams are supposedly praised for their defense, but frankly, in the four years that Tubby has been the coach, the defense has not been anything better than mediocre or average. So I don't understand what all the hype is about. Sure, the defense doesn't give up many interior points, but that will happen when 2, 3, or 4 players crash down as soon as the offense gets the ball anywhere near the lane. This resulted in, time after time, wide open looks from 3-point land, and opposing teams simply have drilled the Gophers from 3-point land all 4 years now.
Perhaps, just perhaps, this has been a result of a slow-footed defending guard (Hoffarber), who was one of those guys ALWAYS doubling down, for each of the 4 years Tubby has been here. I recall many a huge 3 being put in by the guard he was defending (a wide open Talor Battle, to lose the lead late at PSU would be a perfect example). If Hoff was indeed the reason why Tubby's teams have been so atrocious at defending the outside jumper, then we'll find out next year. If not, we'll know it's Tubby's system. And at least from that standpoint, we'll know exactly where the blame should lie.
Today's offensive basketball at the D-1 level relies on 2 to 3 good 3-point shooters on every team, and to get them lots of open looks each game through passing, screens, and off-ball movement. Today's defensive basketball relies on not letting those good 3-point shooters to get open. The Minnesota Gophers have been horrible at obtaining open 3s, and horrible at giving up open 3s, for 4 years now. That has directly cost them dearly in terms of wins and losses.
DEFENSIVE SHOT BLOCKING
One last thing on defense. The Gophers consistenly are near the top of the Big Ten in blocked shots. That's great, right? Well only if that directly helps reduce the other team's chances of scoring. And from my standpoint, it does not. First of all, if we have great shot blockers in the interior, then it's pretty obvious that we should NOT be doubling down on interior passes. The interior defenders have been quite adequate, and, except for Jared Sullinger and Jajuan Johnson, there have not been too many interior players who have put up good numbers against Tubby's teams. But, guards, whether nominally good or bad, have consistenly ripped up Tubby's teams (e.g., just recently, Juice Thompson's career high 35, Talor Battle's 7 3-pointers). It doesn't matter if the opposing team doesn't even have an interior threat (North Dakota State, South Dakota State, Penn State, Northwestern), the perimeter was not guarded while the inside was. So in that respect, our shot blocking really doesn't affect our game. The other team simply shoots around us.
But when they do take the ball inside, unless we actually block the shot, going for the block has really reduced the ability to garner defensive rebounds. How many times have we seen 1, 2, or 3 Gophers leap for that block while the offensive player takes his position and gets the offensive board for the easy putback? We've even lost several games because of offensive putbacks in the last minute, including a couple this year. If you're going to go for the block, one of two things need to happen: 1. your teammates need to box out your backside - even with all the doubling down, I don't see the Gophers boxing out away from the ball; and 2. you need to be ready, if the shot is missed, to outposition or box out the shooter for a potential rebound - instead, I just see the shot blocker end up way out of position if the shot isn't blocked. As much as I despise Bo Ryan, that guy knows how to play defensive basketball. And it's not exactly like Bo Ryan is getting the best talent or the most athletic defenders to come into his system. He gets players to position themselves, not overextend themselves on blocks, and guards the perimeter. It's that simple and effective.
QUALITATIVE OUTLOOK
I really think that the new season will bring about a new attitude. Often last year it just seemed like the Gophers needed a two- or three-week break to break the cycle, so to speak. It seemed everything that could go wrong did, pretty much for two years running now. But that said, the coach and the players simply did not do what it took to play basketball at the Division-1 level. The blame needs to be placed on almost every person wearing a Gopher uniform or sitting on their sidelines last year. This year, the talent to begin the season will, in my opinion, be worse than they had to begin last year. But we see what that talent did: a major defection, a major injury, and several huge disappointing seasons led to one of the worst Gopher teams in recent memory (referring to the end-of-season, not the full season), certainly the worst in Tubby's four years here. Next year the team could have a solid season barring NBA defections (Trevor) or other major defections, assuming that several or more players make big improvements, and assuming Tubby finally decides that defending the 3-point line in Division 1 basketball is important. If these things happen, the Gophers could push the top-35 teams, make the tournament, and maybe even do some damage there. Hope springs eternal.
I enjoyed the article. Three main things that struck me (assuming we use the lineup discussed on there, which is a big assumption):
1) I don't mind the concept of starting two combo-guards instead of a more traditional PG-SG mix. Many teams employ this successfully. I do not believe that this will leave us "without a point guard, like last year". Basically, we were left with a SG-SF-PF-PF-C (assuming Hoff, Rodney, Trevor, Ralph, Colt). Hoff wasn't a combo guard at all. The difference to me was that Hoff, despite being an excellent shooter and passer, was simply not quick enough to get by anyone or guard a point guard. I would think it'd be different with two combo guards in there.
2) I think that we could have another rough year, scoring-wise, if we are relying on two newcomers for scoring. I think they will both be good players, possibly very good, but it's extremely risky to have to rely on a freshman as your main scorer. I'd be more comfortable with him having a year to develop first, but hey, we don't have that luxury (probably).
3) I really hope that Rodney gets less time to prove himself. He has so much athleticism and promise, but I don't know that he adds anything other than a serviceable defender and an occasional highlight reel dunk. Hopefully next year is the year he makes the leap, but if not, I would like to see his minutes reduced at least a little bit. Even if he could add some rebounding ability or something.
1) I don't mind the concept of starting two combo-guards instead of a more traditional PG-SG mix. Many teams employ this successfully. I do not believe that this will leave us "without a point guard, like last year". Basically, we were left with a SG-SF-PF-PF-C (assuming Hoff, Rodney, Trevor, Ralph, Colt). Hoff wasn't a combo guard at all. The difference to me was that Hoff, despite being an excellent shooter and passer, was simply not quick enough to get by anyone or guard a point guard. I would think it'd be different with two combo guards in there.
2) I think that we could have another rough year, scoring-wise, if we are relying on two newcomers for scoring. I think they will both be good players, possibly very good, but it's extremely risky to have to rely on a freshman as your main scorer. I'd be more comfortable with him having a year to develop first, but hey, we don't have that luxury (probably).
3) I really hope that Rodney gets less time to prove himself. He has so much athleticism and promise, but I don't know that he adds anything other than a serviceable defender and an occasional highlight reel dunk. Hopefully next year is the year he makes the leap, but if not, I would like to see his minutes reduced at least a little bit. Even if he could add some rebounding ability or something.
Hoff was a spot up shooter. He was more of wing or 3 type player than even a 2 guard. He still rarely got into the paint. Not saying he wasn't a good player. He has been one of the better ones we have had here.
I agree with you about relying on freshman to lead the team. Unless this Hollins kid really is a big-time player, then it is pretty hard to rely on young kids to be the bread and butter of a competitive big ten team.
Rodney to me needs to play at the 4 to be effective. He really is not a wing player. He can't dribble, shoot, or drive to his right. He needs to play from the free throw line to the block. There he can likely be a good garbage bucket guy, and pickup a bunch of offensive boards. I like him in the open court or used in a fullcourt pressing defense. Offensively, on the wing, he really doesn't do us much good.