Gopher Defense led by Hetherman Getting it DONE - Currently 5th in the NATION

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99Gopher

99Gopher

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Three games in our New DC - Corey Hetherman is getting the job done. Will we be saying Rossi who by the end of the year? I know the comeback by some is always well these are the Non-Conf cupcakes, but everybody is playing their cupcakes right now. So, the numbers speak for themselves, the Gophs are currently 5th in the NATION in Total Defense. We have only given up one TD in three games and I can't prove it, but has Minn ever went through 3 games (I'm saying within the last 40 yrs) where we did this? Our B1G schedule isn't easy, but with the fortunes of Iowa, Wisc, and the current Mich squad, do we have some rising expectations?

1726433497088.png

Side NOTE: Iowa is currently 29th.

Link: NCAA Defense Stats
 

Per Sagarin:

Strength of schedule:
Minnesota 147
Iowa 89

Current Ranking:
Minnesota 50th
Iowa 22

Like PJ's early recruiting class rankings, after week three these stats don't mean much.

Not trying to take anything away from this defense, but when we finished the season at 13 in the nation in yards allowed in 2019 and 11th in the nation in 2022, that was an accomplishment. While Kill had one or two in the two in the top 25-30, Rossi's defenses were something not seen in Minnesota for decades.

We haven't faced an offense yet and won't this coming weekend either. We have a defense that looks good right now against the 147th ranked schedule.

Let's see where we are when we play an offense with a pulse and at the end of the season before we judge the current defense.
 


Fleck, as head coach, had to address two large issues regarding the defense after last season.

He had to pick a replacement for the well-respected Joe Rossi, and he had to make certain that the new hire could immediately upgrade the performance of the defense over last year's disappointing showing.

So far, it looks like a job well done.
 



RememberMurray said:
Fleck, as head coach, had to address two large issues regarding the defense after last season.

He had to pick a replacement for the well-respected Joe Rossi, and he had to make certain that the new hire could immediately upgrade the performance of the defense over last year's disappointing showing.

So far, it looks like a job well done.
Click to expand...
I agree to a point.

Were the missed tackles and slow LBs and confused dbacks a mirage against NC? Or do we just look better against bad competition.

Right now I can guess and hope, but I'm waiting for the team to prove it against Iowa, Michigan, and USC.

We'll have enough info in the next three weeks to know where we are on both sides of the ball.

My biggest concern on D is the shaky O-Line. If we can't win the TOP battle, I don't think the D can hold up all season. That was part of the problem last season compounded by injuries.
 

caliGopher said:
Per Sagarin:

Strength of schedule:
Minnesota 147
Iowa 89

Current Ranking:
Minnesota 50th
Iowa 22

Like PJ's early recruiting class rankings, after week three these stats don't mean much.

Not trying to take anything away from this defense, but when we finished the season at 13 in the nation in yards allowed in 2019 and 11th in the nation in 2022, that was an accomplishment. While Kill had one or two in the two in the top 25-30, Rossi's defenses were something not seen in Minnesota for decades.

We haven't faced an offense yet and won't this coming weekend either. We have a defense that looks good right now against the 147th ranked schedule.

Let's see where we are when we play an offense with a pulse and at the end of the season before we judge the current defense.
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ISU, Troy, and Illinois State is that much stronger than UNC, Nevada (who beat Troy) and Rhode Island?
 

btowngopher said:
ISU, Troy, and Illinois State is that much stronger than UNC, Nevada (who beat Troy) and Rhode Island?
Click to expand...
Like anything else at this point it is incomplete.

I don't make the models, it's just one that's been around for a while that provides some insight.

The new SP+ numbers are out and have Iowa at 23 and we're at 32, but there is no strength of schedule in that report.

None of it matters Saturday but people who spend a lot more time than I do in the data think there is a difference.
 

I know some people still like to look at Sagarin when it comes evaluating things like SOS, but I personally don't think that the model is aging well compared to newer data models like ESPN's FPI Index. I think the FPI model is more dynamic, has more data points, and adjusts the team ranking more effectively on a week-to-week basis based on the individual team performance of those on your schedule as well as the performance of the conference. I'm not sure how the Sagarin data was pulled based on the numbers you provided, but I don't believe those numbers are close to where they are now as those SOS rankings are or should be fluid. (For example, USC has completely outperformed the original predictions, which has allowed our SOS to increase, same with Illini performance). Here is the current FPI data. (FYI... I added two SOS & REM SOS columns to the end of the data as it's not on the primary FPI data tab).

1726453682156.png

I also trimmed 4 columns out for the Projection columns, otherwise you can't read the data. Looking at Iowa in the first row, they are #32 with an SOS of 103 for the teams they already played and a Remaining SOS of 35 for the remaining teams on the schedule. Whereas, MN at the bottom line and is currently #43 and you can see SOS & REM SOS. It's important to also note the "TREND" column as Iowa is +5 while Minn is +13. So, we both moved up, but we picked up 8 spots on Iowa. If we beat UNC we are likely even or ahead of Iowa in the rankings. We narrowed the gap substantially in the last few weeks at least with Iowa. However, based on this week (+13) you can see how much you can jump. Granted, data alone isn't a perfect way to evaluate.

All I can say about Sargarin is, do you think Iowa is currently #22 and that Iowa has a 54 points more difficult SOS than Minn, just put the schedules side by side and give it the eye test.

Sorry, way too long-winded on this one.
 
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99Gopher said:
Three games in our New DC - Corey Hetherman is getting the job done. Will we be saying Rossi who by the end of the year? I know the comeback by some is always well these are the Non-Conf cupcakes, but everybody is playing their cupcakes right now. So, the numbers speak for themselves, the Gophs are currently 5th in the NATION in Total Defense. We have only given up one TD in three games and I can't prove it, but has Minn ever went through 3 games (I'm saying within the last 40 yrs) where we did this? Our B1G schedule isn't easy, but with the fortunes of Iowa, Wisc, and the current Mich squad, do we have some rising expectations?

View attachment 33554

Side NOTE: Iowa is currently 29th.

Link: NCAA Defense Stats
Click to expand...
UNC is not a non conf cupcake team they are in the ACC and are
3-0 this year
8-5 in 23
9-5 in 22

UNC also has the fourth leading rusher in the nation
 

Flecknation said:
UNC is not a non conf cupcake team they are in the ACC and are
3-0 this year
8-5 in 23
9-5 in 22

UNC also has the fourth leading rusher in the nation
Click to expand...
Agree, I was saying in general people think we start the season with cupcakes, UNC not one of them. In fact, I think UNC has more talent than a team like Iowa State.
 

caliGopher said:
I agree to a point.

Were the missed tackles and slow LBs and confused dbacks a mirage against NC? Or do we just look better against bad competition.

Right now I can guess and hope, but I'm waiting for the team to prove it against Iowa, Michigan, and USC.

We'll have enough info in the next three weeks to know where we are on both sides of the ball.

My biggest concern on D is the shaky O-Line. If we can't win the TOP battle, I don't think the D can hold up all season. That was part of the problem last season compounded by injuries.
Click to expand...

I'm not sure I agree with your take on the Minnesota defense in the North Carolina game. The Gophers were playing against a good team (which is now 3-0) with an excellent rushing attack. Surrendering just 19 points to a team of that quality seems like a pretty solid improvement, in comparison with the Gopher defense from last season. And that's the comp that matters, to me at least: I want to see improvement over last season. So far, we have seen it.

On the other hand, I agree whole-heartedly with your comments regarding how, in FleckBall, the Gopher offense plays a very important role in supporting Minnesota's defense. That's why I'm thrilled seeing how the play of Brosmer has upgraded the efficiency of the offense over last season, specifically his much higher completion percentage.

Regarding the bolded part of the quoted post, what are you hoping to see vs. Iowa, Michigan and USC?
 
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99Gopher said:
I know some people still like to look at Sagarin when it comes evaluating things like SOS, but I personally don't think that the model is aging well compared to newer data models like ESPN's FPI Index. I think the FPI model is more dynamic, has more data points, and adjusts the team ranking more effectively on a week-to-week basis based on the individual team performance of those on your schedule as well as the performance of the conference. I'm not sure how the Sagarin data was pulled based on the numbers you provided, but I don't believe those numbers are close to where they are now as those SOS rankings are or should be fluid. (For example, USC has completely outperformed the original predictions, which has allowed our SOS to increase, same with Illini performance). Here is the current FPI data. (FYI... I added two SOS & REM SOS columns to the end of the data as it's not on the primary FPI data tab).

View attachment 33562

I also trimmed 4 columns out for the Projection columns, otherwise you can't read the data. Looking at Iowa in the first row, they are #32 with an SOS of 103 for the teams they already played and a Remaining SOS of 35 for the remaining teams on the schedule. Whereas, MN at the bottom line and is currently #43 and you can see SOS & REM SOS. It's important to also note the "TREND" column as Iowa is +5 while Minn is +13. So, we both moved up, but we picked up 8 spots on Iowa. If we beat UNC we are likely even or ahead of Iowa in the rankings. We narrowed the gap substantially in the last few weeks at least with Iowa. However, based on this week (+13) you can see how much you can jump. Granted, data alone isn't a perfect way to evaluate.

All I can say about Sargarin is, do you think Iowa is currently #22 and that Iowa has a 54 points more difficult SOS than Minn, just put the schedules side by side and give it the eye test.

Sorry, way too long-winded on this one.
Click to expand...
Sagarin is complete garbage early in the season and still not great by the end of the season. It works better for basketball where there are more data points and more non-conference games.
 



Flecknation said:
UNC is not a non conf cupcake team they are in the ACC and are
3-0 this year
8-5 in 23
9-5 in 22

UNC also has the fourth leading rusher in the nation
Click to expand...

Spot on.

I see North Carolina as a team that could finish the season in the Top 25.
 

RememberMurray said:
Spot on.

I see North Carolina as a team that could finish the season in the Top 25.
Click to expand...
Little did anyone know when they were watching this in week 1, I was actually a clash of the titans:

Napoleon-Dynamite-GIF-Slap-fight.gif


Not to say I disagree, we start slow and UNC seemed to have similar issues.
 

A_Slab_of_Bacon said:
Little did anyone know when they were watching this in week 1, I was actually a clash of the titans:

Not to say I disagree, we start slow and UNC seemed to have similar issues.
Click to expand...

I don't know about clashing titans, but I could see North Carolina in the Top 25 as a real possibility.
 

99Gopher said:
I know some people still like to look at Sagarin when it comes evaluating things like SOS, but I personally don't think that the model is aging well compared to newer data models like ESPN's FPI Index. I think the FPI model is more dynamic, has more data points, and adjusts the team ranking more effectively on a week-to-week basis based on the individual team performance of those on your schedule as well as the performance of the conference. I'm not sure how the Sagarin data was pulled based on the numbers you provided, but I don't believe those numbers are close to where they are now as those SOS rankings are or should be fluid. (For example, USC has completely outperformed the original predictions, which has allowed our SOS to increase, same with Illini performance). Here is the current FPI data. (FYI... I added two SOS & REM SOS columns to the end of the data as it's not on the primary FPI data tab).

View attachment 33562

I also trimmed 4 columns out for the Projection columns, otherwise you can't read the data. Looking at Iowa in the first row, they are #32 with an SOS of 103 for the teams they already played and a Remaining SOS of 35 for the remaining teams on the schedule. Whereas, MN at the bottom line and is currently #43 and you can see SOS & REM SOS. It's important to also note the "TREND" column as Iowa is +5 while Minn is +13. So, we both moved up, but we picked up 8 spots on Iowa. If we beat UNC we are likely even or ahead of Iowa in the rankings. We narrowed the gap substantially in the last few weeks at least with Iowa. However, based on this week (+13) you can see how much you can jump. Granted, data alone isn't a perfect way to evaluate.

All I can say about Sargarin is, do you think Iowa is currently #22 and that Iowa has a 54 points more difficult SOS than Minn, just put the schedules side by side and give it the eye test.

Sorry, way too long-winded on this one.
Click to expand...

Not long-winded at all. Well-argued.
 


caliGopher said:
I agree to a point.

Were the missed tackles and slow LBs and confused dbacks a mirage against NC? Or do we just look better against bad competition.

Right now I can guess and hope, but I'm waiting for the team to prove it against Iowa, Michigan, and USC.

We'll have enough info in the next three weeks to know where we are on both sides of the ball.

My biggest concern on D is the shaky O-Line. If we can't win the TOP battle, I don't think the D can hold up all season. That was part of the problem last season compounded by injuries.
Click to expand...

Those missed tackles against NC may be because we played the top overall running back in the NFL draft in 2025 - Omarion Hampton. Half his yards this year are after contact and he has run for a similar number of yards as Iowa's Kaleb Johnson. Less than 25% of Kaleb's are after contact which means he's getting a lot more yards before someone even gets near him.

I agree that NC was probably better than Iowa State. I'm not sure they are now with their #1 QB out for the season. We played against that #1 QB for most of the game however. Their amazing running back is probably enough of a difference maker by himself to make NC better than Iowa State. In college football, a great running back is still a MAJOR needle mover!

I know this is an oversimplification, but we crushed Nevada very easily (27-0) while Iowa struggled with Troy (24-21 going into the 4th quarter) and Nevada beat Troy. It was obvious that PJ Fleck let up in the 4th quarter against Nevada. We could have easily won by more. Iowa had the peddle to the metal that whole game with Troy.

How can these complex metrics miss the fact that the last two opponents each team played just played each other two weeks ago and were almost equal with Nevada winning 28-26 vs. Troy? That would seem to be a significant data point? Things don't always line up so perfectly for a comparison. We can certainly lose to Iowa, but we should be favored especially at home.
 


RememberMurray said:
I'm not sure I agree with your take on the Minnesota defense in the North Carolina game. The Gophers were playing against a good team (which is now 3-0) with an excellent rushing attack. Surrendering just 19 points to a team of that quality seems like a pretty solid improvement, in comparison with the Gopher defense from last season. And that's the comp that matters, to me at least: I want to see improvement over last season. So far, we have seen it.

On the other hand, I agree whole-heartedly with your comments regarding how, in FleckBall, the Gopher offense plays a very important role in supporting Minnesota's defense. That's why I'm thrilled seeing how the play of Brosmer has upgraded the efficiency of the offense over last season, specifically his much higher completion percentage.

Regarding the bolded part of the quoted post, what are you hoping to see vs. Iowa, Michigan and USC?
Click to expand...
Offensively, can we move the ball against defenses that have strength in the line, LBs and DBs.

Defensively, can we stop an offense with a pulse.

That's what I'm looking for.
 

caliGopher said:
Offensively, can we move the ball against defenses that have strength in the line, LBs and DBs.

Defensively, can we stop an offense with a pulse.

That's what I'm looking for.
Click to expand...

Okay. Well, here's hoping you see it someday in a form that satisfies you.
 

99Gopher said:
I know some people still like to look at Sagarin when it comes evaluating things like SOS, but I personally don't think that the model is aging well compared to newer data models like ESPN's FPI Index. I think the FPI model is more dynamic, has more data points, and adjusts the team ranking more effectively on a week-to-week basis based on the individual team performance of those on your schedule as well as the performance of the conference. I'm not sure how the Sagarin data was pulled based on the numbers you provided, but I don't believe those numbers are close to where they are now as those SOS rankings are or should be fluid. (For example, USC has completely outperformed the original predictions, which has allowed our SOS to increase, same with Illini performance). Here is the current FPI data. (FYI... I added two SOS & REM SOS columns to the end of the data as it's not on the primary FPI data tab).

View attachment 33562

I also trimmed 4 columns out for the Projection columns, otherwise you can't read the data. Looking at Iowa in the first row, they are #32 with an SOS of 103 for the teams they already played and a Remaining SOS of 35 for the remaining teams on the schedule. Whereas, MN at the bottom line and is currently #43 and you can see SOS & REM SOS. It's important to also note the "TREND" column as Iowa is +5 while Minn is +13. So, we both moved up, but we picked up 8 spots on Iowa. If we beat UNC we are likely even or ahead of Iowa in the rankings. We narrowed the gap substantially in the last few weeks at least with Iowa. However, based on this week (+13) you can see how much you can jump. Granted, data alone isn't a perfect way to evaluate.

All I can say about Sargarin is, do you think Iowa is currently #22 and that Iowa has a 54 points more difficult SOS than Minn, just put the schedules side by side and give it the eye test.

Sorry, way too long-winded on this one.
Click to expand...
I don't disagree with your take at all and appreciated it. I've not thought much of the FPI, for a variety of reasons, but don't disagree with your takeaway it feels more right than the bog difference I used.

That said, my previous feelings about FPI were somewhat vindicated by the FSU squad ranked just ahead of us.

The main point was that none of these numbers matter. What matters is what we look like when we've played a full season. We'll see where we net out, but ranking 5th after three games doesn't matter at all.

The other thing I'll say is that maybe NCs ranking of 58 in FPI+ can temper what I refer to the Fresno State effect among the Flecktites (overhyping a team we've played to make our successes or failures "feel" better).

NC is a decent team. We should have beaten them. No shame that we didn't, no validation in being close, either.

Let's not lose site of their 107 SOS ranking and the 58 FPI ranking (behind us) so yeah, they're 3-0 but they haven't exactly played a strong schedule. The may be a top 25 team, but there are at least 3 teams on their schedule that will have a big impact on that coming true.

Harrell is going to have to average more than 120 yards passing per game to get them into the top 25 and the quality of their opponents in the ACC will be much better than their 3 other NC opponents after playing us.
 


caliGopher said:
Well at least this passive aggressive response is a step up from questioning if I am a fan.
Click to expand...

When you proclaim that you're waiting to see this and waiting to see that, I'm not sure how else to respond.

You seem to be saying you're dissatisfied with Gopher football. That's certainly your prerogative, but I'm not in charge of arguing you out of your feelings. I can't convince you to think or feel like I do.
 

these last two weeks have been encouraging. Do want to see it against a higher level of competition before so say that losing Rossi isn’t a big deal. But they took care of business against some sub-par teams and that’s what you are suppose to do.
 

Speaking of calculations, I wonder what happens if the Gophers beat someone really good like USC or Michigan.

Unlikely, but look at what the Gophers do have. They could. Could.

Imagine a Gophers passing game like never before during PJ. We don't know, it's looking like probably.

Darius Taylor. Right there. Need to see more from the offensive line.

If the defense holds up.

Which is the topic of the post.

Pieces are there. We don't know yet.

Go Brosmer!
 
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caliGopher said:
I don't disagree with your take at all and appreciated it. I've not thought much of the FPI, for a variety of reasons, but don't disagree with your takeaway it feels more right than the bog difference I used.

That said, my previous feelings about FPI were somewhat vindicated by the FSU squad ranked just ahead of us.

The main point was that none of these numbers matter. What matters is what we look like when we've played a full season. We'll see where we net out, but ranking 5th after three games doesn't matter at all.

The other thing I'll say is that maybe NCs ranking of 58 in FPI+ can temper what I refer to the Fresno State effect among the Flecktites (overhyping a team we've played to make our successes or failures "feel" better).

NC is a decent team. We should have beaten them. No shame that we didn't, no validation in being close, either.

Let's not lose site of their 107 SOS ranking and the 58 FPI ranking (behind us) so yeah, they're 3-0 but they haven't exactly played a strong schedule. The may be a top 25 team, but there are at least 3 teams on their schedule that will have a big impact on that coming true.

Harrell is going to have to average more than 120 yards passing per game to get them into the top 25 and the quality of their opponents in the ACC will be much better than their 3 other NC opponents after playing us.
Click to expand...
I think FPI data will also start to adjust itself more effectively now that we have entered the conference schedules. The issue is that not all the data is completely available these first 3-4 week in the FPI. What I mean by that is that the FPI data is focused on the FBS teams and the FCS data and how it is utilized isn't visible in the model at all at least for us to see. The team that owns the model has to have setup another model that incorporates the FSC data into the mix, but of course we can't see that data and how the FSC rankings are incorporated.

So, now that we have largely gotten through the FSC level games I think the FPI model will start to adjust much more effectively as it becomes largely FBS data that's being updated in the model. I think the FPI data with look a lot better/accurate by weeks six or seven. There's a reason the CFP rankings don't start until the 1st week of November, they have solid data points at that point.
 

99Gopher said:
I think FPI data will also start to adjust itself more effectively now that we have entered the conference schedules. The issue is that not all the data is completely available these first 3-4 week in the FPI. What I mean by that is that the FPI data is focused on the FBS teams and the FCS data and how it is utilized isn't visible in the model at all at least for us to see. The team that owns the model has to have setup another model that incorporates the FSC data into the mix, but of course we can't see that data and how the FSC rankings are incorporated.

So, now that we have largely gotten through the FSC level games I think the FPI model will start to adjust much more effectively as it becomes largely FBS data that's being updated in the model. I think the FPI data with look a lot better/accurate by weeks six or seven. There's a reason the CFP rankings don't start until the 1st week of November, they have solid data points at that point.
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RememberMurray said:
When you proclaim that you're waiting to see this and waiting to see that, I'm not sure how else to respond.

You seem to be saying you're dissatisfied with Gopher football. That's certainly your prerogative, but I'm not in charge of arguing you out of your feelings. I can't convince you to think or feel like I do.
Click to expand...
I'm saying what we've seen is good, but I'm not buying my tickets to the NC game because we handled one team we should not be playing (Rhode Island) and a Nevada team I wouldn't want to play in two years if their coach hangs around, but that is coming off a 2-10 season and doesn't have a ton of talent.

I'm glad that it's evident that we've focused on our shortcomings against significantly inferior opponents for the first time in the Fleck era and that if this defense can hold up to actual competition that maybe we'll win more than 5 games.

The next three games will tell us a-lot, and that is what I'm hoping to see - substance to say this year will be different than last year.
 

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