Gary Parrish's Big Ten Preview

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He projects the Gophers to finish 9th place for what a small portion of this board will believe to be the second straight year. :)

"The Gophers are interesting because they're pretty good in the backcourt with Andre Hollins and Austin Hollins, both of whom averaged double-digits in points last season while leading Minnesota to the NCAA tournament. But what is Minnesota going to do in the frontcourt? Trevor Mbakwe and Rodney Williams are both gone, and there are no obviously suitable replacements (especially considering Rakeem Buckles was, for whatever reason, denied a transfer to play immediately). So Richard Pitino's first year in the Big Ten probably won't go smoothly. But he's a smart guy with a sharp staff, and, I think, he'll be fine in time."

http://www.cbssports.com/collegebas...ollege-basketball-conference-previews-big-ten
 

Although I would take guards over big men any day of the week, I do think MN is going to get destroyed up front by good teams. I would guess that the Hollins boys will have to score close to 40 a night to beat a lot of the better teams...
 


GopherDude said:
Uconn in 2011 = Minnesota this year. No bigs, but a great back court - let's hope Dre can be as clutch as Kemba.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2010–11_Connecticut_Huskies_men's_basketball_team
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Seriously? You know, Alex Oriahki was a McD's AA, and Roscoe Smith was pretty close. And they had the 19th-highest percentage in the country in terms of blocking shots. They had bigs, they didn't get a lot of notoriety but they were tough to score against. Ask Brad Stevens, who "coached" his team to a sub-20% shooting night against them.
 

OSUfan said:
Seriously? You know, Alex Oriahki was a McD's AA, and Roscoe Smith was pretty close. And they had the 19th-highest percentage in the country in terms of blocking shots. They had bigs, they didn't get a lot of notoriety but they were tough to score against. Ask Brad Stevens, who "coached" his team to a sub-20% shooting night against them.
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Hahaha... I went to 6 or 7 of their games that year... I know AO was a McDs AA and Scoe was good out of high school. I also know that both of them were complete idiots on the court and AO was a sophomore and Scoe was a Freshman... Who are you going to throw at me next? Olander? Wolf? Okwandu (who probably had close to a fourth of those blocks but could barely tie his shoes)? Oriahki was good (and I'm hoping EE can come close to matching his numbers)... Other than that, they had poor bigs. Additionally, my comparison also had a lot to do with projections of where the teams would finish, having very good guards, and under-estimated bigs (Oriahki vs. EE). The argument that would have made more sense to me is if you had of brought up the coaches and their experience levels...
 


You think the Gophers are going to finish 19th in the country in block percentage on defense this year? Hold ANYONE to 18% shooting from the field? I don't believe that will be the case. Of course, a big part of why that UConn team played so well was Kemba Walker blossomed into a superstar - you could argue he deserved NPOY over Fredette especially after the tournament - and I doubt that you will see any of the Gophers play at that superstar level this year. But still UConn held Butler to 18%, Kentucky with everyone in their top-6 being an NBA draft pick in 2011 or 2012 to 33%, an Arizona team that lit up #1 seed Duke to the tune of 93 points and 54% from the field to 33%. You don't see many teams as strong on defense as that UConn team and a defense of that caliber is not going to happen for Minnesota this year.
 

OSUfan said:
You think the Gophers are going to finish 19th in the country in block percentage on defense this year? Hold ANYONE to 18% shooting from the field? I don't believe that will be the case. Of course, a big part of why that UConn team played so well was Kemba Walker blossomed into a superstar - you could argue he deserved NPOY over Fredette especially after the tournament - and I doubt that you will see any of the Gophers play at that superstar level this year. But still UConn held Butler to 18%, Kentucky with everyone in their top-6 being an NBA draft pick in 2011 or 2012 to 33%, an Arizona team that lit up #1 seed Duke to the tune of 93 points and 54% from the field to 33%. You don't see many teams as strong on defense as that UConn team and a defense of that caliber is not going to happen for Minnesota this year.
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Half of you're argument is based on the fact that they held Butler to 18% shooting from the field... But what you're forgetting is that that game was probably the ugliest game in the history of the tournament, for both teams, but especially Butler, who didn't come to play & didn't make any shots whether they were contested or not. The other half of you're argument is that they blocked a high number of shots... But I just named all the big men on their team - all of which were average or well below average besides AO. Could guys like Okwandu block a lot of shots? Yes. Does that mean that they were great basketball players? No. The Gophers Bigs could surprise people in other areas that would contribute to the teams success just as much as the blocks did for UCONN in 10-11.

What I'm saying is that if EE and Mo can step up and play to the level of AO and Scoe (which isn't absurd) and the Gophers get hot at the right time (like UCONN did), the Gophers have a very comparable team to the 2010-11 UCONN team (a team that was .500 in conference play). Obviously, it would also require Dre to be as clutch as Kemba. and that is why I said that in my original post...

And Oh.... you "doubt that you will see any of the Gophers play at that superstar level this year" speaking about Dre & Kemba... Well lets see...

Andre Hollins:

High school - Senior year averaged 23.5 points per game and named Tennessee Mr. Basketball - also a 4 year starter on a team that made it to the state championship 3 times - Ranked 77 Overall by ESPN out of hs
Freshman Year of College - 8.7 ppg in the B1G
Sophomore Year of College - 14.6 ppg All B1G 3rd Team by media

Kemba Walker:

High school - Senior year averaged 18.2 points per game for elite Rice HS in NYC, McDonalds AA
Freshman Year of College - 8.9 ppg in Big East
Sophomore Year of College - 14.6 ppg All Big East 3rd Team

Seems like a pretty similar comparison to me haha...

NOTE: AGAIN, NOT SAYING GOPHERS WILL EVEN MAKE THE TOURNAMENT - SIMPLY POINTING OUT HOW SIMILAR THE TEAMS ARE IN PRE-SEASON EXPECTATIONS (AMONG OTHER THINGS)
 

OSUfan said:
You think the Gophers are going to finish 19th in the country in block percentage on defense this year? Hold ANYONE to 18% shooting from the field? I don't believe that will be the case. Of course, a big part of why that UConn team played so well was Kemba Walker blossomed into a superstar - you could argue he deserved NPOY over Fredette especially after the tournament - and I doubt that you will see any of the Gophers play at that superstar level this year. But still UConn held Butler to 18%, Kentucky with everyone in their top-6 being an NBA draft pick in 2011 or 2012 to 33%, an Arizona team that lit up #1 seed Duke to the tune of 93 points and 54% from the field to 33%. You don't see many teams as strong on defense as that UConn team and a defense of that caliber is not going to happen for Minnesota this year.
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You're missing the point. The point isn't to nitpick every little statistic. The point GD was making is that UConn was projected to be a middle of the pack Big East team, and did in fact finish something like 8th IIRC, but then rode superb guard play and defense to a national championship. Minnesota is projected to finish 9th in the Big Ten. I don't think anyone's predicting a national championship, but to say that teams have significantly outperformed everyone's expectations before (especially with good, experienced guards) is a valid observation and reason for hope.
 

GopherDude,

Have you ever known of anyone who knows more about D-1 BB than you? Pretty cocky!
 



MN1nAZ said:
GopherDude,

Have you ever known of anyone who knows more about D-1 BB than you? Pretty cocky!
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I apologize for coming off as cocky! Just trying to state my observations and points.
 

2010-11 UCONN & 2013-14 Minnesota look nothing alike.

As sophomores, Dre Hollins was offensively far better than Kemba.

Walker boosted his usage tremendously as a junior and rarely turned it over. But... he underperformed in his first two years.

Dre Hollins is a different type of player - (Walker is) just not a good comparison. Very different games.

That UCONN team couldn't shoot, but they didn't turn it over and were great on the offensive boards (i.e., Oriakhi was).

If Minnesota has success, it will be in large part to them shooting well. Unlike UCONN, turnovers and offensive boards are two big concerns on offense.

Defensively, UCONN shut down the opponents 2FG's. For Minnesota, that will prove to be something that hurts them badly this season.

UCONN played guys who were young and tall. Minnesota will play guys who are old and short.

If Jeremy Lamb II comes walking into the Barn, who knows what would happen this season. But, the comparison of Minnesota and UCONN just doesn't work if you get into the details.

Pretty amazing to think back - IIRC 11 of 16 BEast teams made it to the tourney that season. Great conference.
 

As sophomores, Dre Hollins was offensively far better than Kemba.
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Agree...

Walker boosted his usage tremendously as a junior and rarely turned it over. But... he underperformed in his first two years.

Dre Hollins is a different type of player - (Walker is) just not a good comparison. Very different games.
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Again, agree, but I think Dre could produce very similar numbers and be just as effective (call me crazy) and that was my point. I do however understand that they are different players.

That UCONN team couldn't shoot, but they didn't turn it over and were great on the offensive boards (i.e., Oriakhi was).

If Minnesota has success, it will be in large part to them shooting well. Unlike UCONN, turnovers and offensive boards are two big concerns on offense.

Defensively, UCONN shut down the opponents 2FG's. For Minnesota, that will prove to be something that hurts them badly this season.

UCONN played guys who were young and tall. Minnesota will play guys who are old and short.
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Agree that they won't play the exact same styles of basketball, don't have the same experience level, and have different strengths and weaknesses, but overall they have a lot of similarities & as WG pointed out - "teams have significantly outperformed everyone's expectations before (especially with good, experienced guards) is a valid observation and reason for hope." and that is my main point.

If Jeremy Lamb II comes walking into the Barn, who knows what would happen this season. But, the comparison of Minnesota and UCONN just doesn't work if you get into the details.
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You don't think Austin Hollins can produce Jeremy Lamb like numbers and be just as good as lamb was during the regular season (regular season because you said "comes into the Barn")? I find that surprising.
 

GopherDude said:
You don't think Austin Hollins can produce Jeremy Lamb like numbers and be just as good as lamb was during the regular season (regular season because you said "comes into the Barn")? I find that surprising.
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Austin Hollins is terribly underrated by most and he can absolutely produce as well (and better) than Lamb in 2010-11. I didn't refer to him or make any such comparison.

My point was Minnesota doesn't appear to have a freshman that is going to come on at the end of the season and do the things that Jeremy Lamb did for that 2010-11 UCONN team. His ascension and maturity during the season was impressive and he played a big role in what the Huskies were able to do (to clarify, "walking into the Barn" = appears on campus, comes to play for the team, etc.. not literally steps on the court for a home game at Williams Arena during the regular season).

Again, UCONN was very young compared to Minnesota. We know a lot more about what we have with this year's Gophers than we knew what we would have with UCONN in 2010-11.

Can teams outperform expectations? Certainly. But UCONN vs. Minnesota from a team style, personnel, coaching, etc. standpoint, the comparison isn't good. UCONN is an example of a team enjoying success it wasn't expected to have... but does Minnesota's team look much like UCONN's? No.
 



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