FSN: Gophers say soft schedule won't hurt them

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Just taking a quick browse, at least 2 factual errors in this piece.

1. Iowa has played a top-25 team, Creighton, though in fairness I don't think Creighton was ranked at the time. Semantics, I guess.

2. The Gophers beat DePaul 86-85, not Dayton.

I'm less concerned about WHO the Gophers have or haven't played -- there have been enough games where they were tested & had to play from behind -- and more concerned about WHAT they haven't played, a TRUE ROAD GAME. I think that's the bigger issue they'll face when they head to Champaign & Ann Arbor to start the B1G season. How's this largely new group of Gopher players (sans Trevor) going to handle a significant run by the home team, backed by the home crowd? Will the Gophers hang in there, or will they wilt?
 

We definitely don't have that signature win working to our advantage this year like the Louisville, Butler, West Virginia, or UNC wins. I do think we have played some quality competition, just not high end competition.
 

SelectionSunday said:
Just taking a quick browse, at least 2 factual errors in this piece.

1. Iowa has played a top-25 team, Creighton, though in fairness I don't think Creighton was ranked at the time. Semantics, I guess.

2. The Gophers beat DePaul 86-85, not Dayton.

I'm less concerned about WHO the Gophers have or haven't played -- there have been enough games where they were tested & had to play from behind -- and more concerned about WHAT they haven't played, a TRUE ROAD GAME. I think that's the bigger issue they'll face when they head to Champaign & Ann Arbor to start the B1G season. How's this largely new group of Gopher players (sans Trevor) going to handle a significant run by the home team, backed by the home crowd? Will the Gophers hang in there, or will they wilt?
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Tune in shortly after January 1, 2011, for the continuance of questions for As the Team Turns, that as of now remain unanswered.
 

Despite a 12-1 record heading into B10 play, I think they will need 22-23 W's minimum to get in the big dance. This NC schedule is ridiculous and will have zero quality wins for the ol' tourney resume. Plus, not a single true road game? Really Tubby?
 


this is the Strength of schedule from a post on 12-1-11
16. Minnesota
24. Michigan State
38. Ohio State
61. Northwestern
98. Michigan
119. Wisconsin
134. Penn State
149. Purdue
189. Nebraska
194. Indiana
200. Illinois
222. Iowa

Dayton has not helped us by getting crushed the last couple of games but how can we go from the toughest schedule in the conference to worrying about it being too soft in one week?
 

Dr.Don said:
Tune in shortly after January 1, 2011, for the continuance of questions for As the Team Turns, that as of now remain unanswered.
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Dr., The Gophers open Big Ten season Dec 27th. One of those new-fangled things. Keep up.:cool02:
 

Minnesconsin fan said:
this is the Strength of schedule from a post on 12-1-11
16. Minnesota
24. Michigan State
38. Ohio State
61. Northwestern
98. Michigan
119. Wisconsin
134. Penn State
149. Purdue
189. Nebraska
194. Indiana
200. Illinois
222. Iowa

Dayton has not helped us by getting crushed the last couple of games but how can we go from the toughest schedule in the conference to worrying about it being too soft in one week?
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SS can correct me, but our RPI SOS rank to date is not that bad. It is currently at 72. Good for 4th in the Big Ten. The problem is the lack of top 50 RPI wins outside of the conference. I don't think Indiana State will stay at 29 all year.
 

Art Vandelay said:
Despite a 12-1 record heading into B10 play, I think they will need 22-23 W's minimum to get in the big dance. This NC schedule is ridiculous and will have zero quality wins for the ol' tourney resume. Plus, not a single true road game? Really Tubby?
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I think with a 12-1 OOC record that a 9-9 league record locks MN into the NCAA tourney at 21-10 overall (not counting whatever they do in Indy). Say what you want about the OOC schedule, but the SOS will be okay based on the type of no-names we played (only 2 or 3 RPI killers, most OOC opp in Top 150). Plus, the Big Ten will have some quality teams/opponents to help the SOS. 9-9 Big Ten record will get you in this year.

Clearly, the bigger issue is whether the Gophers can get to 9-9 in the Big Ten. That will be tough, IMO.
 



Always nice to get a signature win before conference play starts, but as long as we can win enough games and/or get some quality wins in Big Ten play (preferrably against Wisconsin) we'll be alright.
 

Art Vandelay said:
Despite a 12-1 record heading into B10 play, I think they will need 22-23 W's minimum to get in the big dance. This NC schedule is ridiculous and will have zero quality wins for the ol' tourney resume. Plus, not a single true road game? Really Tubby?
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What planet do you live on?

You think that going 12-1 and likely being in the top 35 RPI going into conference play will require 10-11 conference wins in what will likely be the highest RPI conference in the nation?
 

tjgopher said:
. ... Say what you want about the OOC schedule, but the SOS will be okay based on the type of no-names we played (only 2 or 3 RPI killers, most OOC opp in Top 150). Plus, the Big Ten will have some quality teams/opponents to help the SOS.

Clearly, the bigger issue is whether the Gophers can get to 9-9 in the Big Ten. That will be tough, IMO.
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I second that. Am not worried about how the Gophers' overall or nonconference SOS will look at the end of the year. The nonconference SOS will be fine, but missing (as Gold Vision pointed out) a signature win or two. TJ has hit on the primary sticking point. ... doing enough work during the B1G season.

Maybe the Gophers will do the opposite of last season. ... do most of their heavy lifting in the B1G, not the NC?
 

Gold Vision said:
SS can correct me, but our RPI SOS rank to date is not that bad. It is currently at 72. Good for 4th in the Big Ten. The problem is the lack of top 50 RPI wins outside of the conference. I don't think Indiana State will stay at 29 all year.
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Here are the updated B1G SOS rankings according to CollegeRPI.com. The Gophers have dropped quite a bit in the past week, but still not bad amongst their B1G brethren. In parentheses are top-100 wins to this point.

33. Michigan State (#26 Florida State)
38. Michigan (#66 Iowa State, #78 Memphis, #95 Western Illinois)
46. Wisconsin
72. GOPHERS (#31 Indiana State, #57 Virginia Tech, #88 Fairfield)
89. Northwestern (#17 Seton Hall, #85 LSU)
96. Ohio State (#2 Duke, #33 Valpo, #54 Florida)
102. Purdue (#51 Iona, #70 Temple, #87 Miami-Florida)
111. Penn State
132. Illinois (#30 Richmond, #53 Gonzaga, #73 Maryland)
162. Nebraska
187. Iowa
257. Indiana (#61 NC State)

The Gophers have played two RPI killers to date in the NC, Appalachian State (#310) and Mount St. Mary's (#311), with 1 more on the horizon (St. Peter's #297). I suspect at the end of the season Mount St. Mary's (definitely) and St. Peter's (probably) will be the only true NC RPI killers (generally, #250+ RPI), as I expect Appalachian State to be competitive in a decent conference (Southern). We'll see. I'm just conjecturing.

Assuming the Gophers do enough to get in contention for a NCAA bid (I'd label it a longshot at this point), it's most important that teams like Bucknell, Fairfield, Indiana State and Virginia Tech (especially the latter 3) all end up having solid to above-average seasons. And to a lesser extent Dayton, even though we lost to 'em.
 



Rosemountian said:
What planet do you live on?

You think that going 12-1 and likely being in the top 35 RPI going into conference play will require 10-11 conference wins in what will likely be the highest RPI conference in the nation?
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Yes, very likely IMHO. 12-1 without playing a single road game or a team that has a chance at an at-large bid to the dance. The "signature" win at this point is Indiana St. who is a middle of the pack MVC team. The Selection Committee (we're told) is big on NC schedules/wins when comparing bubble teams and this 12-1 is a big time snooze fest.
 

Art Vandelay said:
Yes, very likely IMHO. 12-1 without playing a single road game or a team that has a chance at an at-large bid to the dance. The "signature" win at this point is Indiana St. who is a middle of the pack MVC team. The Selection Committee (we're told) is big on NC schedules/wins when comparing bubble teams and this 12-1 is a big time snooze fest.
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If the gophers go 9-4 in the non-conference schedule 11 big ten teams would likely still get them into the dance. And you think they might need to get to 11 if they go 12-1 nonconference?



DON'T. SMOKE. CRACK.
 

It's certainly possible Indiana State could finish in the middle of the MVC (5th-6th ish), true, but it's probably more likely they'll be in the top 3 or 4, which this particular season is a good thing. The MVC is performing very well in nonconference play. Creighton, Wichita State, Northern Iowa and Indiana State all appear to be legit MVC contenders at this point. Maybe Missouri State, too. It's early, but the MVC looks like a multiple-bid league like it was (on a regular basis) a few years ago. For the Gophers' sake (if by chance they do enough to merit NCAA consideration), let's hope the Sycamores are at or near the very top.
 

Key word is "might".

I stand by 22-23 W's to get in (God I sound like FOT)
 

Art Vandelay said:
Key word is "might".

I stand by 22-23 W's to get in (God I sound like FOT)
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As always, it kinda depends on who those wins are against. 9-9 w/ a win over Ohio State could be enough. Lets not forget w/ 68 teams there are a few more at large spots these days.
 

I agree that who we beat in the B1G might matter. In theory we can get to 9 wins by only beating PSU, Indiana, Iowa, NW and Nebraska. If so, that probably won't be good enough.
 

They just need to take care of business at home. I remember in 2005 the Gophs were a 9 seed. They had a god awful preseason lossing around 4 games. However during the B10 season, they took care of business at home, and won the road games against inferior competition. I mean seriously, on the first bracketology 10 Big Ten teams are either in, or are one of the 1st 4 out. Every win (minus Penn St. and Iowa) will be a good one!
 

Dayton is up 13 on number 16 Alabama at half.
 

There are plenty of winnable games in the B1G. Penn State just lost to Lafayette, Purdue is struggling with Western Carolina, and Nebraska was down at half to Florida Gulf Coast. We need to hold home court to get a couple nice wins.
 

9-9 in the Big Ten should not be "tough"

Close to must wins (7): Iowa, at Penn State, Northwestern, at Iowa, at Nebraska, Indiana, Nebraska

Winnable games (4): Purdue, at Indiana, Illinois, at Northwestern

Is 9-2 or 8-3 in those 11 games really difficult? If the Gophers can't do that, I contend that they are simply a bad team.

Whether 9-9 in the conference with the best win of our entire season being at home against Illinois or Purdue should qualify for the NCAA tournament is a different question. I can see Art's side that the Gophers could be left out in that scenario, but I'd say they are most likely in given the trend towards a very weak bubble the past few years. I would hope this squad would do no worse than 10-8 and be able to beat a team like Wisconsin or Michigan State at home. From what we've seen so far it looks unlikely, but that certainly should be a minimum expectation for Tubby at this point.
 

EG#9 said:
Is 9-2 or 8-3 in those 11 games really difficult? If the Gophers can't do that, I contend that they are simply a bad team.
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I would contend that only great teams win every game they are supposed to and good teams win most, while also stealing a couple they shouldn't. Thus in a good league, 9-9 is a record of a good team, not great. In a bad league, sure a good team should probably do better.
 

This is where we are at as a program? How about we just finish 10-8 in the Big Ten and not worry about who Dayton plays? When will Tubby win 10 games in conference? This year? Not bloody likely.
 

Rouser said:
I would contend that only great teams win every game they are supposed to and good teams win most, while also stealing a couple they shouldn't. Thus in a good league, 9-9 is a record of a good team, not great. In a bad league, sure a good team should probably do better.
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I think a 9-9 record in a good league is pretty average which usually results in being a bubble team. I agree with your statement on good teams only winning most of the games they are supposed to and stealing a couple they shouldn't.
 

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