Before that game TCU held their opponents to an average 89 yards a game on the ground. Wisconsin ran for 226. That’s 2.5 times more than their average. Their undersized front absolutely did not do “just fine.” Obviously TCU is a much better D than Texas Tech was two years ago but that doesn’t change the fact that they are undersized and designed to stop air raid spread teams similar to the Red Raiders and we match up well with them. Plus are O-line and TEs much bigger and stronger and are RBs and are better than they were against Texas Tech so the comparison balances out.
If you look back at the TCU defense from the Rose Bowl (2010) to present against power running teams from outside the Mountain West or Big12, we have played 2010 Wisconsin, 2012 Michigan State, and 2013 LSU. The 2010 team's MWC average versus the game against Wisconsin is only showing that Wisconsin had a more potent running game than Mountain West teams we faced. If you weigh what TCU did statistically on the run defense against those power running teams season averages, it paints an entirely different picture of how effective that 'small, fast defense' handles power runs.
Over all 13 games in 2010, Wisconsin totaled 3,194 yards of rushing offense. That averages out to 245.69 yards per game. As you noted, they ran for 226 yards on us in the Rose Bowl. That is 20 yards less than their average. That year, the Gophers' defense gave up 250 yards to Wisconsin's running attack, or 4 more yards than their average. I would say holding them to less than their average was 'just fine'.
In 2012, Michigan State ran for a total of 1,942 yards over their 13 games. That is an average of 149.38 yards per game. In the Buffalo Wild Wings Bowl, they only managed to run for 123 yards against TCU. Or, 26 yards less than their season average. In comparison, that year the Gophers' gave up 278 yards to Michigan State on the ground, for 129 more yards than the MSU average per game.
In last season's game against LSU, we saw our defense give up 197 yards on the ground to a team that averaged 202.30 yards per game (2,630 total yards over 13 games). To put that into perspective, the same Auburn team that would play in the National Championship game gave up 228 yards in their loss to LSU. And from the Big10 side of things, Iowa gave up 220 yards in the Outback Bowl.
The Patterson 4-2-5's run defense did not give up a loss in any of those games. It helped win the Rose Bowl, and kept the Frogs in the Buffalo Wild Wings Bowl and the Cowboy's Classic against LSU. A certain punt return fumble at the goal line cost us the game against Michigan State, and a combination of pathetic offensive play calling and horrible offensive line production gave up the game to LSU.
I think it is very possible that Minnesota wins this year, but that win more than likely will not come off the run defense being unable to defend a power running game. It will be the second game under a new offensive scheme, with new offensive play calling. After the abortion of an offense last year, I have come to expect the same level of pathetic offensive line play, miscues and stupidity until proven otherwise. If we make the same mistakes that plagued us last year, and Minnesota capitalizes on them, I very well can see a 21-13 type game going in favor of the Gophers. However, if we can avoid goal line fumbling or throwing picks, I think the Frogs win.
Either way, I am looking forward to a great game and hope y'all enjoy your visit to Texas.
