I think this game matches up well for the Gophers on a number of levels, many that were covered by Matt already. Some things I've been looking at as I ponder placing a sizable wager on the Rodents:
>> Gophers are 9-3 ATS (Against The Spread) this year, compared to 7-4-1 for Syracuse; along with that, the Gophers were 4-1 AWAY from home (if I'm not mistaken), while Syracuse was 2-3 ATS away from home if I recall correctly.
>> Gophers are 6-0 ATS in their last 6; The only game the Gophers have not covered when Nelson played the majority of the snaps was Iowa, when he was still banged up and probably shouldn't have played
>> Other miscellaneous; Gophers familiarity of playing in this game last year in Houston; the Gophers advantage of being in Kill's 3rd year while it's the first year of the Schafer regime in Syracuse; the high disparity at which the two teams commit penalties and beat themselves; Syracuse losing arguably one of their best defensive players, leading tackler and INT leader Eskridge, will be a big loss, especially for a secondary that already was below par.
I think the first half features a lot of jet sweeps and play action for the Gophers offense with Syracuse geared up to stop the run game between the tackles. This opens things up for 150+ yards on the ground grinding it out in the second half with a lead. I DO think the Cuse will attempt at least one or two trickeration plays, and how successful those plays are I think will largely decide how close this game is. If they can manage to "steal" a TD or so on offense that way, they just might cover and make this a close game.
EDIT: One last thing; with the extra 15 practices to prepare for this game last year, the Gophers beat the spread by a solid 10+ points; another reason I give a HUGE edge to the Gophers in the Coaching department.
