Fringe Bowl Team Take

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I think MV is dead on with his take. Actually losing this game may be the best thing to happen to the young defense. However, it may also be the worst thing to happen to the program over all.
 

I love and worship MV, but he is, of course, a total homer. A black swan is an unexpected event, something absolutely nobody sees coming. Every preseason publication in the country was predicting 2-10. That means if we beat 2 of the 3 weakest teams on our schedule (MTSU, USD, NIU) we have to lose to one of them.

After what little offense we saw from MTSU tore us a new arsehole (17 points in 14:26), we should not be surprised by the result of our more pass-happy offense which allowed the USD O more time on the field. An objective observer had to accept a loss here as a remote possibility.
 


The site is a good one and the guy does put a lot of work into but he chooses to ignore the truth.

This is not some black swan or an outlier. The head coach is in over his head and the defense is just plain bad. Many pointed out that the defense would struggle which no one wanted to believe.

The defense gave up 8 yards per play to MTSU and 9 yards per play to South Dakota. There is no quick fix for this at the college level. No amount of taking a breath, bleeding maroon and gold or how many times you hit the reset button is going to change the fact that the defense is not going to get better this season to the point where this is just an outlier that can't be explained. This is going to be norm for the season more times than not and not just some unexplained occurencce.
 


SickAndTiredOfLosingToWI said:
I love and worship MV, but he is, of course, a total homer. A black swan is an unexpected event, something absolutely nobody sees coming. Every preseason publication in the country was predicting 2-10. That means if we beat 2 of the 3 weakest teams on our schedule (MTSU, USD, NIU) we have to lose to one of them.

After what little offense we saw from MTSU tore us a new arsehole (17 points in 14:26), we should not be surprised by the result of our more pass-happy offense which allowed the USD O more time on the field. An objective observer had to accept a loss here as a remote possibility.
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I did not see a single preseason publication, beat writer or fan that predicted a loss to USD. In fact, most of the talk was in the opposite direction; some thought that USD was the weakest opponent in 20 years. I'd classify that as an event that no one saw coming, including the team.
 

scools12 said:
The site is a good one and the guy does put a lot of work into but he chooses to ignore the truth.

This is not some black swan or an outlier. The head coach is in over his head and the defense is just plain bad. Many pointed out that the defense would struggle which no one wanted to believe.

The defense gave up 8 yards per play to MTSU and 9 yards per play to South Dakota. There is no quick fix for this at the college level. No amount of taking a breath, bleeding maroon and gold or how many times you hit the reset button is going to change the fact that the defense is not going to get better this season to the point where this is just an outlier that can't be explained. This is going to be norm for the season more times than not and not just some unexplained occurencce.
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The sample size of the MTSU game was roughly half of the national average for offensive snaps per game.

I'll be the first to admit that stats fluctuate so rapidly during the OOC schedule that statistical analysis can only start to have real predictive value after 4-5 games against FBS opponents.
 

MV. said:
The sample size of the MTSU game was roughly half of the national average for offensive snaps per game.

I'll be the first to admit that stats fluctuate so rapidly during the OOC schedule that statistical analysis can only start to have real predictive value after 4-5 games against FBS opponents.
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Stats..stats..stats..! What do stats have to do with having a dimwit for a coach who can't even run a practice??? Do you factor a dimwit coefficient into your stats eash week?
 

I still think this team might not be as bad as people think they are. I would not be suprised if we still go 6-6. The defense is bad but our offense has the potential to be really good this year. If we upset USC and beat Northern Illinios we are half way there (6 wins).

I don't think Brewster is the answer but I don't think this team will be as bad as people think they will be.
 



gold04 said:
I still think this team might not be as bad as people think they are. I would not be suprised if we still go 6-6. The defense is bad but our offense has the potential to be really good this year. If we upset USC and beat Northern Illinios we are half way there (6 wins).

I don't think Brewster is the answer but I don't think this team will be as bad as people think they will be.
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Maybe you should wait until we play a team that is actually capable of generating a pass rush and has LBs who can fill/adjust to a gap?
 



Hindsight is 20/20 said:
Stats..stats..stats..! What do stats have to do with having a dimwit for a coach who can't even run a practice??? Do you factor a dimwit coefficient into your stats eash week?
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No, but I do factor in a dimwit coefficient when reading your posts.
 



I'm not really sure what a dimwit coefficient is
 

KoolAid said:
I'm not really sure what a dimwit coefficient is
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It's similar to a Sortino ratio, where you take the Sharpe ratio and use only negative standard deviation. The dimwit ratio removes the positive coaching decisions during a game.
 

scools12 said:
No amount of taking a breath, bleeding maroon and gold or how many times you hit the reset button is going to change the fact that the defense is not going to get better this season to the point where this is just an outlier that can't be explained. This is going to be norm for the season more times than not and not just some unexplained occurencce.
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Couldn't disagree more here. You don't think a young defense can improve substantially over the course of a full season, in a quantifiable sense that makes this USD loss inexplicable? Sounds like either every defensive player's talent and potential is already maxed out, or the coaches are so incompetant that they can't coach anybody up. Take your pick, but either option is ridiculous and unfair.

And before its suggested that Brewster and the revolving door of coordinators haven't coached up any talent on defense, I'd present Nate Triplett, Lee Campbell, and Simoni Lawrence as players who all improved every year under Brewster's tutelage.
 

Hindsight is 20/20 said:
Stats..stats..stats..! What do stats have to do with having a dimwit for a coach who can't even run a practice??? Do you factor a dimwit coefficient into your stats eash week?
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What's your dimwit coefficient? curious you seem so passionate here berating our program again and again in every one of your posts since saturday, where have you been before this?

MV your stuff is gold, your take makes sense, I think there are just enough troublemakers and day 1 Brewster haters around to make boards like this almost unreadable until something swings positive again and they go back into the woodwork.
 

Gopher Bandanna Guy said:
Couldn't disagree more here. You don't think a young defense can improve substantially over the course of a full season, in a quantifiable sense that makes this USD loss inexplicable? Sounds like either every defensive player's talent and potential is already maxed out, or the coaches are so incompetant that they can't coach anybody up. Take your pick, but either option is ridiculous and unfair.
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I do believe a young defense can imporve substantially over the course of a season just don't believe this particualr defense has the personnel to do that. Too many IMO have over estimated that actual talent level of the defense.

Just because you disagree with it doesn't make it ridiculous and unfair.
 

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