Friday At-Large Update (still at 14)/The Big Ten Mosh Pit

[SelectionSunday]

No major changes after Thursday's results. We're still at 27 teams battling for the final 14 at-large bids. One semi-major development was Arizona failing to inch closer to a bid by losing at home to Cal. That's four straight losses for the Wildcats, but they're still solidly in the bubble mix if they finish 9-9 in the Pac 10 with a win vs. Stanford at home on Saturday.

Let's talk briefly about our favorite conference (but obviously ESPN's favorite whipping boy), the Big Ten. Penn State's win really helped clear things up a little bit. I still don't have the Nitts as a lock, but it would seem impossible to leave them out (despite a horrific nonconference schedule, and I mean HORRIFIC) if they finish 11-7 with a win over Iowa. So here's how I see the Big Ten heading into the weekend:

(1) Illinois, Michigan State and Purdue are locks. That's 3 bids.

(2) The Gophers (5-6 vs. RPI top 50, 8-8 vs. RPI top 100), Ohio State (5-8, 8-9) and/or Penn State (6-9, 7-9) will join those three with a win this weekend. That would be 6 bids if all 3 win. Losses by any of those three and I think they remain on the bubble with work to do in Indy, especially Penn State (because of their poor NC sked & lack of a single quality NC win).

(3) I think Wisconsin (4-9, 9-10) is on fairly solid ground even if all three teams listed above in (2) win this weekend. If either Ohio State or Penn State lose and the Badgers take care of IU like they should, I'd like the Badgers' chances even more, probably lock them in. Obviously, a loss to the Hoosiers would severely cripple Bucky's at-large hopes, but that ain't gonna' happen.

(4) Michigan (5-9, 9-11) and Northwestern (6-8, 6-9) are in must-win mode this weekend to get to 9-9. If either or both win, they're deservedly right there for an at-large bid heading to the Big Ten Tournament.

In summary, IMO the odds are the Big Ten is going to get 6 (at minimum) or 7 (most likely) bids. 8 is possible, but not likely. Let's just say if Iowa, Michigan and Northwestern win this weekend, that's going to make the BTT even more crazy (and crucial) next week, if that's possible.

Conference Leaders/Conference Tournament Top Seed (31)
3. North Carolina (25-3)
5. UConn (27-2)
6. Michigan State (24-5)
7. Memphis (27-3)
8. Kansas (24-6)
10. Xavier (24-5)
15. Washington (22-7)
19. BYU (22-6)
20. Butler (24-4)
28. Siena (23-7)
29. Utah State (25-4)
35. LSU (25-5)
37. Gonzaga (23-5)
49. Western Kentucky (20-8)
64. VCU (21-9)
67. Davidson (24-6)
70. Northern Iowa (19-10)
75. Miami of Ohio (17-11)
80. American (22-7)
90. Weber State (19-8)
93. Binghamton (19-8)
94. Stephen F. Austin (16-7)
96. North Dakota State (21-6)
114. Robert Morris (22-10)
118. Cornell (17-9)
132. Tennessee-Martin (20-8)
135. Morgan State (19-11)
143. Radford (17-11)
144. Cal State Northridge (14-12)
157. Jacksonville (17-12)
208. Alabama State (16-9)

Locks (20)
1. Pitt (26-3)
2. Duke (25-5)
4. Oklahoma (26-4)
9. Louisville (24-5)
11. Mizzou (24-5)
12. Utah (20-8)
13. Villanova (25-6)
14. Wake Forest (23-5)
16. Tennessee (19-10)
17. Florida State (22-8)
18. Clemson (23-6)
21. Illinois (23-8)
22. West Virginia (21-9)
23. Marquette (23-7)
25. UCLA (23-7)
26. Syracuse (21-8)
30. Cal (22-8)
34. Purdue (22-8)
36. Texas (20-9)
40. Arizona State (21-8)

On the Verge (6) -- a lock with 1 more regular-season win
24. Dayton (24-6): Duquesne (Saturday)
27. Oklahoma State (20-10): at Oklahoma (Saturday)
32. GOPHERS (20-8): Michigan (Saturday)
33. Texas A&M (21-8): Mizzou (Saturday)
39. Ohio State (19-9): Northwestern (Sunday)
58. Penn State (21-9): at Iowa (Saturday)

On the Bubble (16)
31. Wisconsin (17-11): Indiana (Sunday)
38. Creighton (25-6): vs. Wichita State at MVC Tournament (tonight)
44. San Diego State (18-8): UNLV (Saturday)
45. Michigan (17-12): at Gophers (Saturday)
46. South Carolina (20-8): at Georgia (Saturday)
47. Rhode Island (22-8): UMass (Saturday)
48. St. Mary's (22-5): vs. Portland/Pepperdine/San Francisco at WCC Tournament (Sunday)
50. UNLV (21-8): at San Diego State (Saturday)
53. Florida (21-9): Kentucky (Saturday)
54. Boston College (20-10): Georgia Tech (Saturday)
55. Arizona (18-12): Stanford (Saturday)
56. Maryland (18-11): at Virginia (Saturday)
62. Cincinnati (17-12): Seton Hall (Saturday)
65. New Mexico (20-10): at Wyoming (Saturday)
69. Providence (18-12): vs. TBD at Big East Tournament (Wednesday)
71. Northwestern (17-11): at Ohio State (Sunday)

On Life Support (5) -- hanging on a thread
41. Temple (18-11): at George Washington (Saturday)
52. Miami-Florida (16-11): NC State (Saturday)
63. Virginia Tech (17-12): at Florida State (Sunday)
72. Auburn (19-10): LSU (Saturday)
79. Kentucky (19-11): at Florida (Saturday)

Next At-Large Update: Monday, March 9th. ... A happy Championship Week(end) viewing to all.

 

[year of the gopher]

still perplexed

SS, I appreciate reading your updates and rarely respond, but I'd like some clarification from you.

I'm still perplexed about why everyone seems to have Wisconsin as a near-lock for the tournament. Maybe I'm not being objective enough and I admit I would just bask in them not making the tournament...but they only have 18 wins to date and while they did play a very tough non-conference schedule, they didn't win ANY of their games against top teams, including losing a key game played at home (Texas) and another in their home state (Marquette).

I just think it's bs for a team to get credit for scheduling tough teams when they don't win any of those games.

At the end of the day I'm not saying Wisconsin absolutely shouldn't make it, but in my opinion the Gophers have a stronger case (better overall record, a big non-conference win on a neutral floor, and season sweep of the Badgers).

 

[SelectionSunday]

You're asking very fair questions. To answer this one. ...

"I just think it's bs for a team to get credit for scheduling tough teams when they don't win any of those games."

If they end up on the bubble, the Badgers will be a tricky case for the Selection Committee, no doubt. However, I feel like I'm not giving too much credit to the Badgers' strong NC schedule. Heck, I've currently got them 7th in the Big Ten pecking order. That said, it should count for something that they played some high-quality competition (UConn, Marquette, Texas) in November and December, but you're right, if you play a difficult NC sked you have to win a couple of your signature games. To be fair to the Badgers, they do have a quality nonconference win, and it came on the road. Winning at Virginia Tech (currently #63 in the RPI and on the bubble) is a good win. Not a win the caliber of UConn, Marquette or Louisville, but nevertheless a quality win.

"In my opinion the Gophers have a stronger case (better overall record, a big non-conference win on a neutral floor, and season sweep of the Badgers)."

I'd argue the overall records don't mean much because of the high number of cupcakes the Gophers played in November and December, but I agree with you. At this date the Gophers have a much stronger case than the Badgers. That's why I have the Gophers "on the verge" and the Badgers "on the bubble."

 

[sec105]

To be fair to the Badgers

Why would we want to be fair to Bucky?

 

[dayjoh]

I agree with you year,

It doesnt make any sense that the Badgers should have a good shot at making it just for scheduling good teams. THEY DIDN'T WIN! So effectively it is more important to lose to Texas than to beat Cornell. Why doesn't every team just schedule the preseason top 25 for their non-conference, even if they lose, it still counts more than a win. This is crazy! Admittedly I know very little about calculating an RPI, but the Badgers having a better RPI than us boggles my mind as we have better WINS and a season sweep of them. Also we have no bad losses. Is it too much to ask that the Badgers miss the tournament, really?

 

[bga1]

I have now decided there is only one option: Beat Michigan. I can't sit through the next week sweating out how many more wins we need. Just win.

Beat Michigan.

 

[SelectionSunday]

That's easily the best path, BGA. Let's do it.

 

[Schnoodler]

Just to play the devils advocate. If they hadn't played those tough NC games and played an easier schedule, wouldn't their record be better. so the argument goes both ways, while i agree with the point that they shouldn't get credit for losing no matter how good the opponent they shouldn't be penalized for not playing as many games against easier opponents either.

but they're wisconsin so fuck em.

 

[Jike Spingleton]

but they're wisconsin so fuck em.

Words to live by, and logic that can be applied just about anywhere in life.

 

[SelectionSunday]

oops

nm

 

[Friend Of Tubby]

Kansas St

Not likely but still a possibility for NCAA bid. Must W last game and a couple more W in B12T.

 

[ShowinGoldyLove]

KSU still has a shot?

 

[Friend Of Tubby]

KSU still has a shot?

Longshot but yes. They must have at least 23 W by March 15.