Friday At-Large Update (Gophers are in)

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SelectionSunday

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As of bright & early Friday morning, the Gophers finally have solidifed their bid. Their RPI improved from #41 to #36 with the win over Northwestern. Now let's beat Sparty and perhaps move from the #8-10 line to the #7 line so the Gophers can avoid a #1 seed if they get past the first round.

It's down to the nitty gritty for the final at-larges, with 19 teams jostling for a meager 6 remaining at-large bids. I've added a few teams back into the mix just to be safe. ... Tulsa, UAB & USC. Tulsa/UAB square off today in the Conference USA semifinals; the loser will be out of the conversation.

Notes:
(1) I have six Big 10 teams locked in at this point, all except Penn State and Wisconsin. I think both are in if they win. If they lose. ...

(2) Kudos to Northwestern for a fantastic season. If the NIT is doing its job it will reward the Wildcats with a well-deserved bid.

(3) Just to be safe, pull for top seed Bowling Green to win the MAC Tournament; it plays #5 seed Akron in the semifinals tonight. If BGSU earns the MAC's automatic bid, the Gophers would then own 4 wins vs. NCAA qualifiers outiside of the Big 10 (also Cornell, Louisville, NDSU). That is something the Selection Committee will notice, especially when evaluating bubble teams with a solid resume already in place.

(4) Syracuse vs. UConn. ... wow!

Punched Ducat (14)
20. Siena (26-7)
28. Gonzaga (25-5)
45. Western Kentucky (23-8)
51. VCU (24-9)
54. Cleveland State (22-10)
58. Northern Iowa (22-10)
86. North Dakota State (24-6)
110. Robert Morris (24-10)
112. Portland State (20-9)
115. Cornell (19-9)
118. East Tennessee State (21-10)
131. Radford (18-11)
139. Morehead State (17-15)
179. Chattanooga (16-16)

Highest Remaining Conference Tournament Seed (17)
3. North Carolina (26-3)
4. Michigan State (25-5)
7. Memphis (29-3)
8. Louisville (26-5)
12. Washington (24-7)
15. Mizzou (25-6)
16. Xavier (25-6)
25. BYU (24-6)
29. Utah State (27-4)
38. LSU (25-6)
76. American (23-7)
84. Stephen F. Austin (18-7)
89. Binghamton (21-8)
136. Morgan State (20-11)
151. Cal State Northridge (14-13)
154. Bowling Green (17-12)
197. Alabama State (18-9)

Locks (28)
1. Pitt (27-4) -- season complete
2. Duke (25-6)
5. Oklahoma (27-5) -- season complete
6. UConn (27-4) -- season complete (and then some)
9. Kansas (25-7) -- season complete
10. Wake Forest (24-5)
11. Villanova (26-6)
13. Utah (22-8)
14. Syracuse (24-8)
17. Florida State (23-8)
18. Oklahoma State (22-10)
19. West Virginia (23-10)
21. Illinois (23-8)
22. Dayton (26-6)
23. Butler (25-5) -- season complete
24. Tennessee (19-11)
26. Clemson (23-8) -- season complete
27. UCLA (25-7)
30. Arizona State (23-8)
31. Marquette (24-9) -- season complete
32. Purdue (22-9)
33. Texas (22-10)
34. Texas A&M (22-9) -- season complete
35. Ohio State (20-9)
36. GOPHERS (21-9)
41. Cal (22-10) -- season complete
43. Michigan (19-12)
55. Boston College (22-10)

On the Verge (5) -- a lock with 1 more win
37. San Diego State (20-8): vs. BYU, Mountain West semifinals (today)
40. Wisconsin (18-11): vs. Ohio State, Big 10 quarterfinals (today)
56. Virginia Tech (18-13): vs. North Carolina, ACC quarterfinals (today)
62. Maryland (19-12): vs. Wake Forest, ACC quarterfinals (today)
67. Penn State (22-10): vs. Purdue, Big 10 quarterfinals (today)

***If all "on the verge" teams win on Friday, only 1 bid would be available for the 14 bubble teams listed below. ... and that's assuming there's no more bid stealers like Baylor (Big 12), Tulsa/UAB (Conference USA), Wyoming (Mountain West), USC, etc. Gotta' believe there's still another 1 or 2 bids that will be stolen, which would force me to "take back" an at-large bid or two that I had already locked up.

On the Bubble (14)
39. Temple (20-11): vs. Xavier, A-10 semifinals (today)
42. Creighton (26-7) -- season complete
44. UAB (22-10): vs. Tulsa, Conference USA semifinals (today)
46. Florida (23-9): vs. Auburn, SEC quarterfinals (today)
48. St. Mary's (23-6): Eastern Washington (today)
49. South Carolina (21-8): vs. Mississippi State, SEC quarterfinals (today)
52. USC (19-12): vs. UCLA, Pac 10 semifinals (today)
59. Arizona (19-13) -- season complete
61. Miami-Florida (17-12) -- season complete
63. Tulsa (22-9): vs. UAB, Conference USA semifinals (today)
64. Auburn (20-10): vs. Florida, SEC quarterfinals (today)
65. New Mexico (21-11) -- season complete
66. UNLV (21-10) -- season complete
70. Providence (19-13) -- season complete
 

Hey SS, great post. I love reading this every day. I see you found a computer in Indy :)

One question, I'm surprised to see that Wisconsin still needs one more victory to be a lock. Why is this? I thought they were a lock after yesterday's win (or should I call it avoidance of a complete upset).
 

Echoing Burton, another nice job SS, and it is nice to see the Gophers appear to be in 'lock' status. While you were posting this, I was looking to which teams we'd want to see lose today, just to be on the safe side. Some of these mirror what you have in your "win one and they're in" column, but anyway, here is who Gopher fans should be cheering for today (with of course the Gophers being the obvious #1 team to cheer for):

UCLA (face USC)
Texas (Baylor)
Wake Forest (Maryland)
Florida State (Georgia Tech)
UNC (Virginia Tech)
Xavier (Temple)
Dayton (Duquesne)
LSU (Kentucky)
Tennessee (Alabama)
Mississippi State (South Carolina)
Memphis (Houston)
Purdue (Penn State)
BYU (San Diego State)

The reason to cheer for Xavier, Dayton, Memphis, LSU, and Tennessee is that if all these teams lost today, their respective conferences would receive an automatic berth for another team that was a bubble team at best.

I'm sure I missed a few others, but this seems to be a good start :)
 

If the Badgers win (which I think they will, handily), they'll be in. If they lose, I don't think they're a lock at all. If both the Gophers and Badgers lose today, in my mind the Gophers would clearly be ahead of the Badgers in the Big 10 pecking order "so to speak".

A perfect storm scenario today would be a Gopher upset of Sparty, a Badger loss and a Penn State win. In that scenario I think the Badgers would fall behind Penn State & really, really force them to, if nothing else, sweat out Selection Sunday.
 

This has been posted before but I will say it again, there is no way the SEC only has two teams in. I would guess that South Carolina and winner of Auburn/Florida are in as a lock. How that changes everything else, your guess is as good as mine.
 


Excuse my stupidity earlier. I honestly thought WI was the 6th seed. My bad, I am retarded.
 


Here are the automatic bids left that have a chance of stealing an at-large bid. The rest are 1-bid leagues or in the Big East's case, all teams left are locks.

Locks (according to SS) still in their conference tourneys are in parentheses (so cheer for them). To me, SEC, MWC, A-10, C-USA, and WAC are the most dangerous, only 1-2 "lock" teams so one or two upsets cost the bubble. I'd be surprised if 2-3 of those didn't see an upset where a bubble or worse team takes the auto-bid.

ACC - (UNC/Duke/Wake)
B10 - (MSU/Ill/PU/OSU/UM/UM)
B12 - (Texas/Mizzou/OkSt)
P10 - (UW/UCLA/ASU)
SEC - (LSU/Tennessee)
A-10 - (Xavier/Dayton)
MWC - (BYU/UTAH)
C-USA - (Memphis)
WAC - (Utah State)

The SEC is dangerous - I don't see LSU or Tennessee being as "dominant" as say Memphis in the C-USA or BYU/Utah in the MWC.

My biggest worry for the Gophers is having 4-5 "lost bids" cost us a tourney spot. Hopefully we are ahead of enough bubble teams even with a loss today that we still get in, but our last 10 games really worries me.
 

did i miss something? shouldn't kentucky at least still be on the bubble?if they beat lsu, don't you think they will be in?
 




did i miss something? shouldn't kentucky at least still be on the bubble?if they beat lsu, don't you think they will be in?
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I saw a link on a Kentucky board that had them in the NIT as a four seed. It would seem they have a long way to climb to even get on the bubble.
 


Not only does the loss send Va. Tech from 'on the verge' back to the bubble, but I really don't like thier chances that much. 18-14, 8-10 in the conference with an RPI in the 50's and a 2-7 finish just doesn't cut it. No matter how good you think the ACC is.
 



Florida state barely beats 12-18 georgia tech.....64-62


One less spolier left
 

Bucky loses to Ohio State....back on the bubble for Bo's baby's???
 

Locks up the Buckeyes

Wisconsin is probably still in, but they will sweat out the rest of the weekend. If Badgers go and we don't, I am calling for an investigation.
 

Mississippi State is up on SC. This may elimate SC, but Miss. State could arguably be put on the bubble themselves. 21 wins, 9-7 in conference. Current RPI 78
 

howeda7 said:
Mississippi State is up on SC. This may elimate SC, but Miss. State could arguably be put on the bubble themselves. 21 wins, 9-7 in conference. Current RPI 78
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They would be 21 -12 and losing the next game would make it 21-13 - a lot of losses. A danger to somebody perhaps, but not us.
 

I have to think of the pile of medicority that is Florida, Auburn, SC and Miss. State at least 1 is getting in, probably 2 since thier Commishioner is the chairman of the Selection Committee.
 

Things aren't looking overly great right now. Here's the teams from the original post this morning that have won:

On the Verge (5) -- a lock with 1 more win
37. San Diego State (20-8): vs. BYU, Mountain West semifinals (today)
62. Maryland (19-12): vs. Wake Forest, ACC quarterfinals (today)

On the Bubble (14)
39. Temple (20-11): vs. Xavier, A-10 semifinals (today)
63. Tulsa (22-9): vs. UAB, Conference USA semifinals (today)


Plus, we possibly have a 4th A10 bid, Baylor in the finals of the Big 12, and a mess in the SEC (if FLA wins tonight, they seem to be getting closer to a bid). I'm glad we aren't Penn St., but if Baylor wins tomorrow, it might be time to get worried.
 

skoalvikings said:
Things aren't looking overly great right now. Here's the teams from the original post this morning that have won:

On the Verge (5) -- a lock with 1 more win
37. San Diego State (20-8): vs. BYU, Mountain West semifinals (today)
62. Maryland (19-12): vs. Wake Forest, ACC quarterfinals (today)

On the Bubble (14)
39. Temple (20-11): vs. Xavier, A-10 semifinals (today)
63. Tulsa (22-9): vs. UAB, Conference USA semifinals (today)


Plus, we possibly have a 4th A10 bid, Baylor in the finals of the Big 12, and a mess in the SEC (if FLA wins tonight, they seem to be getting closer to a bid). I'm glad we aren't Penn St., but if Baylor wins tomorrow, it might be time to get worried.
Click to expand...

Gophers are 10 or 11 seed with 8+ At Large teams below them (now). Tomorrow, who knows?
 


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