Four B1G Ones Coming Up -- NCAA Tournament Seed

[WinMinGophers!]

Gophers are the hottest team right now. They are riding a seven game winning streak in the Big Ten, a tough conference.

Minnesota Gophers (10-4 conference record) are probably a 5-8 seed in the NCAA Tournament. They have a long shot to secure a 4 seed and host the first two rounds of the tournament.

Gophers command a #10 overall NET ranking, the most critical stat. 10 should put them at a 4 seed except the ranking is not fully believable. For context, super power teams UConn, UCLA, and South Carolina are 1-3. Is Minnesota really 10?

The rest of the games will tell all.

• Minnesota (19–6, 10–4 B1G): The Gophers are the "most disrespected" team in the Big Ten, boasting a defense that ranks 10th nationally in points allowed. They recently proved their ceiling by upsetting #10 Iowa on the road.
• Home Court: Minnesota has won over 84% of their home games this season.
• Streak Factor: Minnesota enters this stretch with the longest active win streak in the conference among these three teams (7 games).

Upcoming Games

Feb 15: At Wisconsin (5-9 conference record). Minnesota with a 70% chance of winning. Wisconsin is sporadically good, a potential spoiler. On the road border battle is always tough. Minnesota trounced Wisconsin earlier this season at home.

Feb 18: Host #8 Ohio State (11-2). Minnesota with a 37% chance of winning. Minnesota top-10 defense faces Ohio State's top-15 offense. Ohio State's Jaloni Cambridge is averaging 22.5 points per game. She scored 41 points earlier this year.

Feb 22: Host #13 Michigan State (9-5). Minnesota with a 40% chance of winning. Michigan State is balanced.

Mar 1: At Illinois (7-7). A high scoring team. 30th in AP 25 voting. Road games are tough. Minnesota with a 55% chance of winning.

Scenarios
Minnesota needs to beat either Ohio State or Michigan State to make the #10 NET ranking believable. Go 1-1 and Minnesota can claim to be about even with them.

Minnesota's elite defense and strong home record (11–2) make them a formidable upset threat.

Respectable losses to both Ohio State and Michigan State won't hurt the Gophers but won't get to the #4-5 seed.

Minnesota may be looking at a #6 seed.

MASSIVE *EXTREME RISK*
This Sunday, Wisconsin has the chance to kill the Gophers resume. A loss to a bad team like Wisconsin would be a disaster.

Illinois is mini-resume killer threat. The hottest team right now -- Minnesota -- has to beat Illinois to be THE hot team.


Then comes the Big Ten Tournament. That is for a later post.