Four B1G Ones Coming -- Tournament Seeds -- Gophers Defense and Offense System Info

WinMinGophers!

Active member
Joined
Jan 6, 2026
Messages
271
Reaction score
239
Points
43
1770960381486.png

Gophers are the hottest team right now. They are riding a seven game winning streak in the Big Ten, a tough conference.

Minnesota Gophers (10-4 conference record) are probably a 5-8 seed in the NCAA Tournament. They have a long shot to secure a 4 seed and host the first two rounds of the tournament.

Gophers command a #10 overall NET ranking, the most critical stat. 10 should put them at a 4 seed except the ranking is not fully believable. For context, super power teams UConn, UCLA, and South Carolina are 1-3. Is Minnesota really 10?

The rest of the games will tell all.

  • Minnesota (19–6, 10–4 B1G): The Gophers are the "most disrespected" team in the Big Ten, boasting a defense that ranks 10th nationally in points allowed. They recently proved their ceiling by upsetting #10 Iowa on the road.
  • Home Court: Minnesota has won over 84% of their home games this season.
  • Streak Factor: Minnesota enters this stretch with the longest active win streak in the conference among these three teams (7 games).

Upcoming Games

Feb 15: At Wisconsin (5-9 conference record). Minnesota with a 70% chance of winning. Wisconsin is sporadically good, a potential spoiler. On the road border battle is always tough. Minnesota trounced Wisconsin earlier this season at home.

Feb 18: Host #8 Ohio State (11-2). Minnesota with a 37% chance of winning. Minnesota top-10 defense faces Ohio State's top-15 offense. Ohio State's Jaloni Cambridge is averaging 22.5 points per game. She scored 41 points earlier this year.

Feb 22: Host #13 Michigan State (9-5). Minnesota with a 40% chance of winning. Michigan State is balanced.

Mar 1: At Illinois (7-7). A high scoring team. 30th in AP 25 voting. Road games are tough. Minnesota with a 55% chance of winning.

Scenarios
Minnesota needs to beat either Ohio State or Michigan State to make the #10 NET ranking believable. Go 1-1 and Minnesota can claim to be about even with them.

Minnesota's elite defense and strong home record (11–2) make them a formidable upset threat.

Respectable losses to both Ohio State and Michigan State won't hurt the Gophers but won't get to the #4-5 seed.

Minnesota may be looking at a #6 seed.

MASSIVE *EXTREME RISK*
This Sunday, Wisconsin has the chance to kill the Gophers resume. A loss to a bad team like Wisconsin would be a disaster.

Illinois is mini-resume killer threat. The hottest team right now -- Minnesota -- has to beat Illinois to be THE hot team.


Then comes the Big Ten Tournament. That is for a later post.
 
Last edited:

Win out and make the semis in B1G tournament should lock a 3-4 seed.
 

So nice to be talking 'seed' instead of 'bubble' this year. It will take a longer run to get a 4 seed and NCAA tourney host slot, but it's nonetheless fun to talk about. Gophers now playing very good basketball.
 

I'm curious where what source you're using for the percent chance of winning? The only 3 predictive metrics I'm familiar with - NET, Torvik, CBB Reference's SRS - all put the Gophs with or above MSU and OSU, and favored at home. Don't imagine the Gophs will be the ~7 point favorites that Torvik predicts but I certainly don't think they'll be a dog either
 

I'm curious where what source you're using for the percent chance of winning? The only 3 predictive metrics I'm familiar with - NET, Torvik, CBB Reference's SRS - all put the Gophs with or above MSU and OSU, and favored at home. Don't imagine the Gophs will be the ~7 point favorites that Torvik predicts but I certainly don't think they'll be a dog either

That! I really appreciate your response. You know more about that than I do. This is great dialogue, really.

Gophers are not in the AP 25 (they are at 26 votes, the most disrespected team in basketball). They play #8 Ohio State with a player averaging 22.5 points and just put up 41. No way Gophers would be favored.

It's kind of crazy because the stats tell another story. Your point is valid. But are Gophers really at #10 NET????

What I wrote came from me knowing Gophers Women's Basketball somewhat well and ongoing discussions at Gopher Hole about this. WinMnGophers! is all-in on what I wrote. This:

The most disrespected team, the hottest team, the underdog team, snubbed by AP 25...

FOUR B1G ONES COMING!
 


1770990200407.png

More information.

Gophers lost to three teams towards the bottom of the AP 25. Gophers are playing more complete basketball since then, especially offense.

Gophers lost in double OT to a high-ranked-at-the-time Maryland team.

Gophers were without their best defender Tori McKinney and lost to Washington on the road. They would beat Washington now with McKinney.

Gophers lost to Alabama.

So what does that say about the Gophers? No way Minnesota could be favored over the high-powered Ohio State. I'll stand by my odds.

Gophers were leading high ranked Michigan (now #7) at half. Then the offense swooned. The offense was having problems back then. The offense is now better.

Gophers are a stout defense team. That is one trademark of Coach Dawn Plitzuweit. She has a certain system, her style. It's all connected. The video study, the defense strategy, the offense strategy. It's over my level of understanding to explain it. Here is what I can say.

Gophers are fantastic at defense.

The offense was struggling. Her offense views came under fire. Gophers were not doing a good job on screens, not sure if they moved away from stuff that wasn't working. Her offense was described and lots of dribbling and little ball movement, few screens, less off the pass shooting. It's not based around many preplanned plays. I don't know what was going on, this is over my level.

The offense has finally kicked in. The engine is now purring.

Go read the other thread at Gopher Hole about the Mara Braun Watch Continues. She had suffered two foot injuries in a row. She was struggling earlier. Was she washed up? She's now further back -- but not yet 100%. Although her total game is more complete than ever.

Bottom line: Coach Plitzuweit is an elite defense coach with an offense style that wasn't working for whatever reason and now it's all clicking.

Below is from AI, don't trust all that is in this:

Coach Dawn Plitzuweit has implemented a "defense-first" total system at Minnesota that has made the Gophers one of the most disciplined teams in the nation for 2026. Her philosophy is rooted in a process-driven approach where defensive stops and ball security directly fuel a versatile, modern offense.

1. The Defensive System: "Discipline and Disruptiveness"

Plitzuweit’s defensive identity is primarily a high-intensity man-to-man system that she adapts based on opponent personnel and actions.
  • Controlling the Controllable: Her system is based on the belief that while shots may not always fall, defensive effort and understanding can be consistent every night.
  • Defensive Pillars: The system is built on three core pillars: Toughness, Togetherness, and "Find a Way".
  • Technical Precision: Known as a "film junkie," Plitzuweit emphasizes "defensive disruptiveness"—using precise technical habits to force opponents into uncomfortable shots or mistakes without fouling.
  • 2026 Impact: This disciplined approach has led Minnesota to rank #1 in the Big Ten in scoring defense (55.9 PPG) and #1 in the nation in fewest turnovers per game (10.1), ensuring opponents rarely get easy transition points.

2. The Offensive Connection: Positionless & Motion-Based

Plitzuweit’s offense is designed to be a direct byproduct of her defensive success. She utilizes a system that leans heavily into positionless basketball and motion principles.
  • Defense-to-Offense Fuel: The intensity the Gophers bring on the defensive end is intended to "fuel their transition offense". By forcing stops and securing rebounds, the team can push the pace before the opponent's defense is set.
  • Positionless Philosophy: Plitzuweit recruits and develops players to be versatile. She wants as many players as possible to be "comfortable handling the basketball" so they can all "push it" in transition. This eliminates the need for a traditional point guard to initiate every set, allowing for a faster, more unpredictable attack.
  • Motion Offense: The half-court system is an "ideal world" motion offense that emphasizes floor spacing, attacking the rim, and high-volume three-point shooting. It is designed to "take what the defense gives," requiring all five players on the floor to be threats to pass, drive, or shoot.

3. Key Statistical Profile (February 2026)

This total system has propelled the Gophers to a Top 10 NET ranking.

System ComponentStatisticNational/Conference Rank
Defensive Discipline13.7 Fouls Per Game#1 in Big Ten
Defensive Disruptiveness56.1 Points Allowed#1 in Big Ten / #19 NCAA
Ball Security10.1 Turnovers Per Game#1 in NCAA
Offensive Connection1.61 Assist-to-Turnover#4 in NCAA
Under Plitzuweit, the Minnesota Gophers have become a "player-led program" where defensive toughness and offensive versatility are inseparable, allowing them to compete with the elite teams of the Big Ten.


More about the offense that was struggling but doing better now.

You are absolutely right that it looks like fluid motion, but that fluidity is the result of a highly structured system called a "Read and React" Motion Offense.

Since you want to look past the Pick and Roll, the "secret sauce" of Coach Dawn Plitzuweit’s offense is actually off-ball screening and strict decision-making rules.

Here is how the offense works without relying on the ball screen:

1. The "Fluidity" is Actually a Loop (Continuity)​

What you perceive as fluid motion is likely a "Continuity" offense.

  • How it works: In a freelance offense, players just find open space. In Plitzuweit’s system, if Option A is stopped, the players immediately flow into Option B, and then Option C, without stopping to reset.
  • The Visual: This creates that "endless motion" look. The ball moves from side to side, and bodies are constantly cutting, but they are following a specific map (e.g., "Pass and Cut away," or "Pass and Screen away").

2. The Real Engine: Off-Ball Screening​

If you take your eyes off the ball handler (Amaya Battle) and watch the other four players, you will see the real structure.

  • Screening for Shooters: With elite shooters like Mara Braun and Grace Grocholski, the offense is designed to get them open before they catch the ball. You will often see "Stagger Screens" (two players setting a screen side-by-side) or "Pin-Downs" (screening down toward the baseline) to free them up for a catch-and-shoot.
  • Screen-the-Screener: A common "play" within the motion is where Player A sets a screen for Player B, and then immediately receives a screen from Player C. This causes confusion for the defense and makes the movement look chaotic (fluid) to them, but it’s actually highly scripted.

3. The "4-Out, 1-In" Structure​

Unlike some modern "5-Out" offenses (where everyone stands at the three-point line), the Gophers utilize Sophie Hart as a true post presence inside.

  • The Pivot Point: Hart often acts as a hub. The guards feed her the ball in the high post (near the free-throw line) or low block.
  • Cutting: Once the ball goes inside to Hart, the "fluidity" kicks into high gear. The perimeter players immediately cut toward the basket (Laker cuts) or drift to the corner. This prevents the defense from helping off the shooters.

4. Pace as Proof of Structure​

The biggest evidence that this is a planned offense rather than "free-flowing" pickup style is their Pace and Turnover Rate.

  • The Gophers play deliberately slow. They are comfortable using 25+ seconds of the shot clock to grind the defense down.
  • They consistently rank among the nation's best in turnover margin. A loose, undefined offense usually results in high turnovers; Plitzuweit’s low-turnover numbers prove that every player knows exactly where they are supposed to be.

Summary​

It isn't that they are running a different "play" every time down the court. Instead, they are running one flexible system that has endless counters.

Next time you watch: Ignore the ball handler completely for two possessions. Watch Grace Grocholski run the baseline. You will likely see her run through a "gauntlet" of screens set by her teammates to pop out on the other side. That is the "preplanned" part of the motion.


More about the elite defense

Plitzuweit primarily employs a high-intensity man-to-man defensive system. While she adjusts the tactical specifics (like ball-screen coverage) based on the opponent and her current roster's strengths, the fundamentals remain constant:

  • Protecting the Paint: The defense is designed to be "gap-oriented," meaning players often sag slightly off non-shooters to clog driving lanes and support their post players.
  • Controlling the Boards: A hallmark of her system is limiting second-chance opportunities. In the 2025-26 season, the Gophers have consistently out-rebounded opponents, often holding them to single-digit offensive rebounds.
  • Ball Screen Discipline: Plitzuweit emphasizes technical precision in how her guards and bigs communicate through screens, aiming to stay attached to shooters while preventing easy rolls to the rim.

Key Statistical Success (2025-26 Season)​

The results of this system have been stark, especially in the current 2026 campaign. The Gophers have climbed to the top of the conference in several defensive metrics:

MetricRank/StatImpact
Scoring Defense55.9 PPGRanked 1st in the Big Ten and 18th nationally.
Field Goal Defense~34.6% (vs. WI)Forcing teams into low-percentage, contested shots.
Turnover Margin+4.5Ranked 1st in the Big Ten; utilizes pressure to create transition offense.
Ball Security10.1 TOPGLeads the nation in fewest turnovers, which prevents "fast-break" defense situations.

Personnel and Application​

Plitzuweit’s defense relies on versatile players who can switch or recover quickly.

  • Sophie Hart acts as the "anchor" in the middle, providing a dominant shot-altering presence.
  • Tori McKinney and Mara Braun provide length at the guard positions, which Plitzuweit uses to disrupt passing lanes and contest perimeter shots without fouling.
  • Physicality: Players are expected to "battle each possession." This grit was a primary reason for the team’s 2025 WBIT Championship and their current hunt for a high NCAA Tournament seed in 2026.
"We have to be sure we’re good on the defensive end, and then we build in the offense after that." — Dawn Plitzuweit


This video provides a deep dive into Coach Plitzuweit's "On The Court" philosophy, highlighting how she builds a player-led culture centered on defensive accountability and toughness.




Go read the other thread at Gopher Hole about the Mara Braun Watch Continues.
 
Last edited:

I just significantly updated my previous response with more info in case there's confusion.
 

Great description of the offense and how it supposed to run. When it breaks down (the 3rd quarter), what do you see as the main reason for the break down? My number one reason: too much dribbling.
 

Great description of the offense and how it supposed to run. When it breaks down (the 3rd quarter), what do you see as the main reason for the break down? My number one reason: too much dribbling.

One thing, shooting percentages crashed during games earlier this season. Gophers were beating Michigan and then crash.

That also was one reason for the 3rd quarter slump against Nebraska. Sophie Hart is having a great season. But then misses two in a row at the rim without excessive defense.pressure.

College ball.is like that. All basketball is like that. It is a mysterious thing how percentages change and change back.

Mara Braun said in the Nebraska post game that it wasn't them in the 3rd quarter swoon. It was AI. Humor. It is a myteriois thing.

Mara Braun is not what she was although better than earlier this season when her shooting looked washed up. Her trajectory has been upward. Not good when your shooting guard sniper has middling shooting percentages to start a season.

Amaya Battle went from lighting it up to miss and miss and then back to lighting it up. Her hot shooting was one reason the Gophers wom the WBIT tournament last season. But then a missed layup comes along.

I don"t know the why, what defenses were doing.

Beyond that I do not know basketball enough to say more. What I.pasted came from Google AI plus some of my own knowledge.

Up next, somebody else chime in who.has insights.
 



Big Ten Tournament

The 2026 Allstate Big Ten Women’s Basketball Tournament will be held from March 4–8, 2026, at Gainbridge Fieldhouse in Indianapolis, Indiana. The tournament will feature 15 teams, with the championship game taking place on Sunday, March 8, 2026, and airing on CBS.

Tournament Schedule & Details:
  • Dates: March 4–8, 2026
    • Location: Gainbridge Fieldhouse, Indianapolis, IN
    • Format: First-round games begin March 4, with top teams receiving byes to the quarterfinals on March 6.
    • Championship: Sunday, March 8, 2026
The 2026 Big Ten women's basketball tournament seeds the top 15 teams based on their final regular-season conference winning percentage. The top four teams earn a double-bye to the quarterfinals, while seeds 5–9 receive a first-round bye. Tiebreakers include head-to-head records and performance against higher-ranked teams.

Key Seeding and Bye Structure (15-Team Format)
  • Double-Bye (Quarterfinals): Seeds #1, #2, #3, and #4.
  • Single-Bye (Second Round): Seeds #5, #6, #7, #8, and #9.
  • First Round: Seeds #10 through #15 play in the first round.
Tiebreaker Procedures
If teams are tied in the final conference standings, the following, in order, are used to determine seeds:
  1. Head-to-Head Record: Results between the tied teams.
  2. Record vs. Highest Ranked Team: Winning percentage against the highest-seeded team, continuing down through the bracket until the tie is broken.
  3. Overall Winning Percentage: Combined results against all conference opponents.
  4. NET Ranking: Highest-ranked team in the NCAA Evaluation Tool (NET).
Tournament Progression
  • First Round: #12 vs. #13, #11 vs. #14, #10 vs. #15 (usually).
  • Second Round: #5-#9 enter, playing winners of the first round.
  • Quarterfinals: #1-#4 enter to play winners of the second round.

NCAA Tournament

The first round of the 2026 NCAA Division I Women's Basketball Tournament is scheduled for Friday, March 20, and Saturday, March 21, 2026.

The tournament begins shortly after Selection Sunday on March 15, where the 68-team bracket will be revealed at 8 p.m. ET on ESPN. Below is the full schedule for the 2026 tournament:

2026 NCAA Women's Tournament Schedule
  • Selection Sunday: March 15
  • First Four: March 18–19
  • First Round: March 20–21
  • Second Round: March 22–23
  • Sweet 16: March 27–28
  • Elite Eight: March 29–30
  • Final Four: April 3
  • Championship Game: April 5
 

Big Ten Tournament Seeds Based on Current Standings

Based on the standings as of
February 13, 2026, a reasonable projection for the Minnesota Golden Gophers in the 2026 Big Ten Tournament is the No. 5 seed.

Following their recent win over Nebraska on February 12, 2026, Minnesota is currently on a 7-game winning streak and holds a 10–4 conference record.

While they are tied with Michigan State in the loss column, they currently trail the top four teams—UCLA, Michigan, Ohio State, and Iowa—who are positioned for the critical "double-bye" into the quarterfinals.

Projections based on conference standings through February 12, 2026.

Seed TeamConf. RecordCurrent Status
1UCLA13–0Undefeated in conference; clear favorite.
2Michigan11–2Holds tiebreaker over Ohio State.
3Ohio State11–2On a 4-game winning streak.
4Iowa9–3Currently in the final double-bye slot.
5Minnesota10–4Leading the 7-win streak; currently 5th in standings.
6Michigan State9–4Projected just behind Minnesota based on current tiebreakers.
7Washington8–5Firmly in the middle of the pack.
8Maryland7–6Recent wins over Nebraska and Penn State.
9USC7–6On a 5-game winning streak.
10Illinois6–7Recently defeated Wisconsin.

Minnesota’s Projection Analysis
  • Seeding Outlook: The Gophers are currently positioned as the No. 5 seed, which would give them a single bye into the second round. To move into the Top 4 and secure a double-bye, they likely need to leapfrog Iowa.
  • Key Upcoming Matchups: Minnesota's final push for a higher seed includes critical games against Ohio State (Feb 18) and Michigan State (Feb 22). Winning these could potentially move them into the Top 4.
  • Performance: Minnesota is playing its best basketball of the season, having risen from 8th to 5th in recent power rankings due to their 7-game streak, which includes a signature road win over No. 10 Iowa.
 

Shooting a basketball is like hitting a baseball. Both are always streaky. If there was a fix or explanation, good hitters and good shooters would never go in slumps. While better overall players in both sports have higher averages, and in all likelihood shorter slumps, they all do it and all struggle to end it.

On a different topic, sort of, McKenna Cristian. Her history and start here indicate an excellent shooter with unlimited range. Currently she couldn’t hit Goldie with a BB. That’s a different tale. When one struggles for minutes, and gets about a shot per game every shot must seem like it will be your last. While she seems a little slow afoot, and defensively tentative, I sure hope she comes back next year. I think she can shoot in the same category as Grace G.
 




Top Bottom