FOR SAKE OF DISCUSSION, LET'S ASSUME......

[BreakTheGopherCurse]

....that for the next several years Jerry Kill and his staff continue to bring in non-Minnesota kids with overall talent levels equal to (but not greater than) the levels they successfully recruited at their previous stops (Northern and Southern, IL). Let's also assume they're able to bring in a couple Minnesota kids each year whose talent level is such that Jerry and staff would probably not have been able to land these kids if they were still at Northern or Southern. Let's assume Kill and staff do a great job of developing their players to reach their potential. Finally, let's assume the team stays healthier than "average" over the next few years. Given these assumptions, could the Golden Gophers break into the top half of the overall Big Ten (determined by in-conference wins) in the next, say, four years? Could they win the Big Ten in that time frame?

My gut is telling me that Jerry and staff may struggle for several years in out-of-state recruiting. Once they build the program, of course, that will change. On a related note, do others find it as miraculous as I do what Bill Snyder accomplished at K-State? Did he do it with players who otherwise would not have been awarded scholarships by Big Eight/Twelve schools?

 

[MNVCGUY]

This story was just published about Bill Snyder this morning. Interesting read.

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/...ent-more-teams-copying-bill-snyders-juco-plan

Snyder has made a living at the JC level, and that is something most coaches who have established themselves at a school typically won't do. The trick on JC kids is that you can't miss, and they seem better than most at getting guys from the JC level that can make the successful transition. That being said outside of the last 2 years it isn't like K-State has been a dominant football program, they have been a middle of the pack Big 12 team for the most part.

As to the OP, that is a lot of assumptions. Based on the recruiting we have seen from Kill to date I would say based only on talent his ceiling is middle of the conference and maybe a run at the division title every once and a while. But we need more time to know if his systems are going to work in the BIG and if he can recruit the kind of talent that can play at this level and be successful.

It is clear he was able to recruit and develop players to compete at Souther Illinois and in the MAC with Northern Illinois but it is a very different animal in the BIG because he is facing teams full of far more talent than any of the teams he was playing against at Northern and especially Southern. NIU has done great in the MAC since he left but they lost both games they played against BCS teams last year and this year they lost a close one to Iowa and won by 7 against what is a terrible Kansas team. I know the systems are different but those are mostly Kill's players on the field.

 

[Ole]

....that for the next several years Jerry Kill and his staff continue to bring in non-Minnesota kids with overall talent levels equal to (but not greater than) the levels they successfully recruited at their previous stops (Northern and Southern, IL). Let's also assume they're able to bring in a couple Minnesota kids each year whose talent level is such that Jerry and staff would probably not have been able to land these kids if they were still at Northern or Southern. Let's assume Kill and staff do a great job of developing their players to reach their potential. Finally, let's assume the team stays healthier than "average" over the next few years. Given these assumptions, could the Golden Gophers break into the top half of the overall Big Ten (determined by in-conference wins) in the next, say, four years? Could they win the Big Ten in that time frame?

My gut is telling me that Jerry and staff may struggle for several years in out-of-state recruiting. Once they build the program, of course, that will change. On a related note, do others find it as miraculous as I do what Bill Snyder accomplished at K-State? Did he do it with players who otherwise would not have been awarded scholarships by Big Eight/Twelve schools?

We're going to need to see where Kill's recruits end up in their junior and senior years as far as production etc to get a better idea on how this staff's recruiting stacks up.

The key will be recruiting for specific systems and getting the recruits to execute those systems flawlessly.
NW is a good example of this in the BIG, they have remained consistent in their recruiting philosophies and maintained a certain offensive system to maximize their limited talent.

Over time, with consistent recruiting, coaching, and systems it's likely they will maintain a level of winning that will get this program to bowl eligibility on a regular basis.

The second step then is to score on in state prospects as you said, that perhaps elevate the program with their talent. Do this on a consistent basis and you'll see a handful of "payoff" seasons where the win totals climb above 6/7 etc, IMO.

The final step, which could occur at any point is to score real national blue chip prospects, or gamechanging diamonds in the rough, that integrate into the stable system, with the talented in state kids, and the consistently winning program has a shot a greatness.

The other thing that cannot be predicted or planned is the stability and success of the conference opponents. Should scandal(OSU, PSU), poor coaching hires(Mich), good coaching hires(MSU) occur, it increases or decreases the winning potential of your stable program. See Iowa in 09, wisky 2010, etc.

We'll see how it plays out, honestly I'm just hoping we start winning more games than losing and start building towards the future in a sustained way.

 

[wait!what?]

The scenario spelled out above has a high water mark of an Outback Bowl. I'll contend that the only thing that really matters is a national championship similar to basketball. history doesn't care about Copper Bowls. ok, FB Natl Championships for BT teams do not look like they will cycle back but who knows.

 

[tjgopher]

they (KSU) have been a middle of the pack Big 12 team for the most part.

Huh?

With Snyder at the helm, KSU has had nine seasons with at least ten wins. They have finished in the top three in the Big 8 or Big 12 in 13 of the last 16 seasons in which Snyder was coach, winning the division/conference four times. They've finished in the TOP TEN in the nation in six different seasons. They've been to two BCS Fiesta Bowls, three Cotton Bowls, and three Holiday Bowls. I would not consider that middle of the pack.

 

[MspHawk]

....that for the next several years Jerry Kill and his staff continue to bring in non-Minnesota kids with overall talent levels equal to (but not greater than) the levels they successfully recruited at their previous stops (Northern and Southern, IL). Let's also assume they're able to bring in a couple Minnesota kids each year whose talent level is such that Jerry and staff would probably not have been able to land these kids if they were still at Northern or Southern. Let's assume Kill and staff do a great job of developing their players to reach their potential. Finally, let's assume the team stays healthier than "average" over the next few years. Given these assumptions, could the Golden Gophers break into the top half of the overall Big Ten (determined by in-conference wins) in the next, say, four years? Could they win the Big Ten in that time frame?

My gut is telling me that Jerry and staff may struggle for several years in out-of-state recruiting. Once they build the program, of course, that will change. On a related note, do others find it as miraculous as I do what Bill Snyder accomplished at K-State? Did he do it with players who otherwise would not have been awarded scholarships by Big Eight/Twelve schools?

Bill Snyder does it with a system where everyone is accountable and there is no status level. Everyone is treated equal at all times. Sound familiar? I do hear Kill driving this often. Snyder learned this under Hayden Fry while at Iowa. Besides Snyder there were a couple other guys you might know where were Fry's assistants with similary upbringings....

Bo Pelini
Kirk Ferentz
Barry Alvarez
Bob Stoops
Mike Stoops
Bret Bielema
Jim Leavitt
Bill Snyder
Dan McCarney

Not saying all of those guys, especially McCarney, are great coaches by any means. Recruiting will happen for the Gophers, it is going to take some years to put it all together. Id be all in with Kill...he is going to get this ship righted (already doing so) Look at Ferentz out of the gate, similar deals....Support your coach all in....all the time.

 

[MNVCGUY]

Huh?

With Snyder at the helm, KSU has had nine seasons with at least ten wins. They have finished in the top three in the Big 8 or Big 12 in 13 of the last 16 seasons in which Snyder was coach, winning the division/conference four times. They've finished in the TOP TEN in the nation in six different seasons. They've been to two BCS Fiesta Bowls, three Cotton Bowls, and three Holiday Bowls. I would not consider that middle of the pack.

My mistake, I forgot to factor in the gap from when he retired to when he came back. The two years before he left the first time, the years in between and his first two years back 2004-2010 the program was very average (2004 4-7, 2005 5-6, 2009 6-6, 2010 7-6). But you are correct that prior to that he had a great run and the past two years have been very good as well. He had a great run from 1993-2003 as you laid out above.

 

[Winnipegopher]

....that for the next several years Jerry Kill and his staff continue to bring in non-Minnesota kids with overall talent levels equal to (but not greater than) the levels they successfully recruited at their previous stops (Northern and Southern, IL). Let's also assume they're able to bring in a couple Minnesota kids each year whose talent level is such that Jerry and staff would probably not have been able to land these kids if they were still at Northern or Southern. /QUOTE]

This is a recipe for 11 or 12 in the Big Ten. Let's not forget that in their best year (2010), Northern Illinois beat one BCS team (imploding Minnesota) and lost to two (marginal teams Illinois and Iowa State).

They need to recruit to a Big Ten level and coach them up.