FiveThirtyEight Analyzes the NCAA Tournament field

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dpodoll68

dpodoll68

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http://fivethirtyeight.com/interactives/march-madness-predictions/

Interestingly, they place Louisville as the team most likely to win, with a 15% chance. Florida is second, with a 14% chance. In a different article, Nate Silver stated that the debate over Louisville should've been whether they were a 1 or 2 seed, and that they are only a 4 seed due to the committee's excessive reliance on RPI. N.B., Silver is a known RPI hater.
 

dpodoll68 said:
http://fivethirtyeight.com/interactives/march-madness-predictions/

Interestingly, they place Louisville as the team most likely to win, with a 15% chance. Florida is second, with a 14% chance. In a different article, Nate Silver stated that the debate over Louisville should've been whether they were a 1 or 2 seed, and that they are only a 4 seed due to the committee's excessive reliance on RPI. N.B., Silver is a known RPI hater.
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Thanks for that link! There's no reason to hate RPI, but there is no reason to rely so much on it either. On the one side you have RPI and on the other side you have BPI, Pomeroy, and Sagarin which produce more similar results. For the computer index portion of a placement decision, they should take one of the latter three and average it with RPI.

I was surprised by the Louisville placement. I thought they had almost as good of a claim to a #1 as Virginia.
 

Here s a Deadpsin link to what the odds makers think:

http://deadspin.com/vegas-thinks-the-ncaa-tournament-seeding-is-insane-1545595924

Funny quote (funny because it is true):

"Louisville as a 4 seed? If I was picking, I would take Florida first, and then my second pick would be Louisville," said Nick Bogdanovich, director of William Hill sports books. "Look at two of the 4 seeds? Who would you want over them? On a neutral court, you would bet your life savings on Michigan State or Louisville against Wisconsin."
 

I read this over lunch, pretty interesting stuff and makes me feel a little better about my MSU vs Louisville championship game pick.

Sent from my SCH-I535 using Tapatalk
 

It's really hard for me not to pick Michigan State and Louisville in the championship.
 


MadtownGopher said:
It's really hard for me not to pick Michigan State and Louisville in the championship.
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Same here.

I'm seeing some picking Kansas to final four or even win the whole thing. Others have them losing to Ok St. Hard to predict the injury status.

I'm having a hard time trying to figure out who is for real among Wisky, AZ and Creighton.
 

jaymil said:
I read this over lunch, pretty interesting stuff and makes me feel a little better about my MSU vs Louisville championship game pick.
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MadtownGopher said:
It's really hard for me not to pick Michigan State and Louisville in the championship.
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Me too. I had to think about that one, and I currently have Florida beating Michigan State in the Final Four, and then beating Louisville for the national championship, but I may yet switch to taking MSU over Florida.
 





I was surprised on the espn2 bracketology show tonight they had Virginia winning their region. Haven't seen much of that.
 

I have Mich St losing to Virginia in the Sweet 16, but I may change that to losing in the Elite 8. It's not that I disrespect Mich St, they just have a tough road to the championship if the brackets fall the right way. It's hard for me to see them beating Virginia, then Villanova, then insert another great team without faltering. Their seeding hurts.

Edit: That said, I have Villanova, Florida, Arizona, and Louisville in my FF.

Further, if I had to choose an Elite 8 field irrespective of the brackets, I would include Virginia, Villanova, and Michigan State.
 

hyaluronic said:
I have Mich St losing to Virginia in the Sweet 16, but I may change that to losing in the Elite 8. It's not that I disrespect Mich St, they just have a tough road to the championship if the brackets fall the right way. It's hard for me to see them beating Virginia, then Villanova, then insert another great team without faltering. Their seeding hurts.

Edit: That said, I have Villanova, Florida, Arizona, and Louisville in my FF.

Further, if I had to choose an Elite 8 field irrespective of the brackets, I would include Virginia, Villanova, and Michigan State.
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I actually think Mich St has the easiest path to the Final Four. I think Vill and Virgina are over-rated. I like Iowa St over Vill and Virginia.

Mich St and Fla is probably my National Champ game other that the fact it can't be.
 




Unregistered User said:
Who cares? He's right even more often than you. Just busting your nuts. I've been a Silver fan for a long time, and none of it has to do with sports.
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Silver is the man. The run-up to the 2012 Presidential election was hilarious. And I was actually complimenting him when I called him an RPI hater.
 

I've never seen a year like this when a 4-seed was such a darling pick to win it all. There's no question in my mind Louisville is being "punished" by the selection committee for not playing enough top-25 and top-50 teams.
 

Bad Gopher said:
I've never seen a year like this when a 4-seed was such a darling pick to win it all. There's no question in my mind Louisville is being "punished" by the selection committee for not playing enough top-25 and top-50 teams.
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And yet Wichita St wasn't.

When we see everyone's picks(either here or your other groups) will there be one or two teams picked to win it all by the majority of folks? I know in my group that is usually the case. A group of about 40. Last year over half picked Louisville and the year before the pick was KY.
 

dpodoll68 said:
http://fivethirtyeight.com/interactives/march-madness-predictions/

Interestingly, they place Louisville as the team most likely to win, with a 15% chance. Florida is second, with a 14% chance. In a different article, Nate Silver stated that the debate over Louisville should've been whether they were a 1 or 2 seed, and that they are only a 4 seed due to the committee's excessive reliance on RPI. N.B., Silver is a known RPI hater.
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Great link. Thanks for posting it.
 


Bad Gopher said:
I think the committee would have punished them if they thought they could have gotten away with it.
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Wait, Their bracket wasn't enough of a punishment??? Do they need to be sent to the Gulag?
 


It definitely has the feel of a "prove it" bracket. I wouldn't be surprised to see any of their top 4 seeds in the FF, same goes for the East bracket (though apparently some disagree).
 

Bad Gopher said:
You're right. They WERE punished with a top seed in a region of land mines.
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Since they were clearly the worst #1 seed, it stands to reason they get the toughest grouping to work with.
 

GopherRock said:
Since they were clearly the worst #1 seed, it stands to reason they get the toughest grouping to work with.
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Indeed, the team that hasn't lost a game all year and went to the Final Four a year ago is CLEARLY the worst #1 seed :rolleyes:
 

I love Nate Silver as well, but why all the love for Louisville? They're not as good as last year and who have they beaten? Cincinnati once and Uconn three times. They lost to every ranked non-conference opponent they played and the AAC is just not that good.
 

GopherWeatherGuy said:
I love Nate Silver as well, but why all the love for Louisville? They're not as good as last year and who have they beaten? Cincinnati once and Uconn three times. They lost to every ranked non-conference opponent they played and the AAC is just not that good.
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If you look at Silver's methodology and the things his model considers, a couple three factors work in Louisville's favor:
1. Their pre-season ranking was high (No. 3, I think)
2. A couple of the models Silver aggregates take into account score / margin of victory, which is where they have shined
3. They're healthy and have been on a wining streak
 

GopherWeatherGuy said:
I love Nate Silver as well, but why all the love for Louisville? They're not as good as last year and who have they beaten? Cincinnati once and Uconn three times. They lost to every ranked non-conference opponent they played and the AAC is just not that good.
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I don't remember where I heard it, but a good method for selecting teams to make deep runs into the tournament in any given year is to pick teams who:

1. are top 20 in Kenpom offensive efficiency
2. are top 20 in Kenpom defensive efficiency
3. have a potential lottery pick in the upcoming draft

Only 4 teams meet criteria 1 and 2: Florida, Louisville, Wichita St., and Villanova. (Only Louisville and Wichita St. are top 10 in both.) Only 1 team meets all 3 criteria: Louisville.
 

I picked Louisville to win it. I essentially use two factors: 1.) their strength in computer models that care about margin of victory; 2.) using those models, determining how many "land mines" they have to face. Based on those two factors, they have the easiest path to the Elite 8. In that, I fully assume that Wichita State is overrated. Wichita State deserves a one or two seed, but I place them outside of the Top 15 or so teams in the field. Every Elite 8 team in any bracket is a landmine, and it becomes even more of a crapshoot than the rest of the bracket.
 

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