FIU, Kenpom, and Tempo

[Gopher07]

As some know, Ken Pomeroy runs more advanced stats on his site, kenpom.com. The adjusted offense and defense (AdjO, AdjD) are based on 100 possessions, while tempo (AdjT) is the estimate of the number of possessions the team would have against an average D-1 opponent.

In 2012, FIU ranked 231 in Kenpom's rankings. AdjO was 97.3 (231st), AdjD was 104.4 (221st). AdjT (Tempo) was 64.9 (231st). Basically, awful.

Enter Rich Pitino...

In 2013, FIU was 182. AdjO was 99.2 (191st), AdjD was 101.1 (165th), and AdjT was 68.9 (48th).

In one year, FIU improved their offense by about 2%, and improved their defense by about 3%. In an average game in 2012 for FIU, with 65 possessions, they'd be expected to put up about 63 points.

If you figure there are only so many possessions in a game - we'll say 132 (one every 18 seconds or so) - that means the other team is going to get 67 possessions in this scenario. In 2012, FIU would be expected to give up about 70 points per game.

Here's where tempo comes in for 2013. While the AdjO and AdjD numbers improved, the biggest mover was certainly tempo.

In 2013, in a game with 132 possessions total, FIU is getting 69 of those, and the opponent is getting 63. FIU in 2013 is expected to score 68 points, their opponents (with 64 possessions) are expected to score 65 points.

With no improvement in tempo from 2012, it would be 64 points for FIU, 68 for the opponent in 2013.

There is a big assumption in the above, that is, a finite number of possessions in a game. I have not taken into account the increase in the total number of possessions for a game with the increase in tempo which is certainly a big caveat. If someone has the desire to play with it further to see how an increase in tempo affects total number of possessions in a game, have at it.

Finally the last thing I'll mention is that tempo is not everything. In fact, a great tempo is much less important than having an efficient offense and defense (duh) - of the top 20 teams in this year's kenpom rankings, the best tempo belongs to VCU (75th).

But if our tempo can improve from bad to pretty good, and we can maintain strong offensive efficiency and good defensive efficiency, we could be in for a treat.

FWIW, the Gophers AdjT the past 4 years:

2010: 66.4 (211)
2011: 66.2 (192)
2012: 64.5 (255)
2013: 63.4 (278)

 

[dtrain19]

My head hurts. Get this same feeling when I eat ice cream too fast.

 

[Bob_Loblaw]

Great post!

 

[From the Barn]

swooooooooooooooooooooooooooooon stats stats stats stats stats stats, only because young pitino loves him some efficiency stats.

 

[MNVCGUY]

I love reading stats like that where when you get done you sit there and try to figure out what it actually means if anything. The important thing is they improved during the year he was there...at least I think that is the improtant takeaway in that....maybe

 

[Winasota Gopher]

FWIW, the Gophers AdjT the past 4 years:

2010: 66.4 (211)
2011: 66.2 (192)
2012: 64.5 (255)
2013: 63.4 (278)

You're going to see a team that rebounds, and you're going to see a team that likes to get up and down the court because my teams have done that in the past. .

Now THAT is funny!

 

[watertown 1987 guy n]

Great! Instead of a 45 to 44 score with Wisky we may get in the 50s.

 

[Gopher Warrior]

Gopher07, with all due respect, I'm afraid you do not understand what 'tempo' or 'adjusted tempo' means.

Do some more studying and let me know if you have follow-up questions. Here's something to get you started:

Tempo is essentially just possessions per 40 minutes. Both teams are going to have approximately the same number of possessions in a game (i.e., possessions alternate). You're not going to have a game where one team has 69 possessions and the other team has 63. Step back and think about it.

 

[Gopher07]

Gopher07, with all due respect, I'm afraid you do not understand what 'tempo' or 'adjusted tempo' means.

Do some more studying and let me know if you have follow-up questions. Here's something to get you started:

Tempo is essentially just possessions per 40 minutes. Both teams are going to have approximately the same number of possessions in a game (i.e., possessions alternate). You're not going to have a game where one team has 69 possessions and the other team has 63. Step back and think about it.

Yyyyep, thanks. I'm an idiot.

FG attempts - offensive rebounds + turnovers + (.475*FT attempts).

So the only differences would be inbound plays where possession does not change (or does it?), and tie-ball scenarios?

So that being said, FIU went from an average 63-68 score in 2012, to an average 68-70 score in 2013. With no change in tempo, it would've been 64-66 average.

Still, a better tempo means more chances to score, and if you're an efficient offensive/defensive team (and the other team maybe isn't), marginally better results overall (for example:

expected Gophers' 2013 score with same AdjO and AdjD, AdjT: 72-59 (+13)
expected Gophers' 2013 score with same AdjO and AdjD, FIU's tempo: 78-64 (+14)

 

[Dr.Don]

Stats, stats, stats.

Stats have proven that if a team scores more points than its opponent, it will win the game. Those are the stats I care about.

 

[Gold Vision]

Stats, stats, stats.

Stats have proven that if a team scores more points than its opponent, it will win the game. Those are the stats I understand.

FIFY

 

[Gopher Warrior]

Yyyyep, thanks. I'm an idiot.

FG attempts - offensive rebounds + turnovers + (.475*FT attempts).

So the only differences would be inbound plays where possession does not change (or does it?), and tie-ball scenarios?

So that being said, FIU went from an average 63-68 score in 2012, to an average 68-70 score in 2013. With no change in tempo, it would've been 64-66 average.

You're not an idiot - idiots don't learn. There are a couple of situations statistics policies/guidelines that can cause the possessions to become uneven, but the other thing that can happen is: Team A wins the tip and team A has last possession of the 1st half...so they are a +1. Team B starts 2nd half with the ball, team A has last possession of the game... so the teams are even. Team A therefore had 1 more possession than Team B.

Most pace/tempo/possessions that you'll see are estimates. For example the .475 * FTAs that some use is obviously just an estimate.. if a team misses 5 front ends of the bonus, it'll look like 2.4 possessions (5 FTA x .475)... but if they make the front end and get the bonus shot, it'll look like 4.8 possessions (10 FTA x .475).

This estimate can cause differences between teams as well.. so what Pomeroy does is averages the two teams and uses that figure for the estimate of possessions for the game.

It's possible to get very precise on possessions and some do, but for the most part the numbers you'll see people quoting or using are going to be (reasonable) estimates.

But.. the important factors are off & def efficiency, as you noted in the 70-68 vs 66-64 comment.

An entirely different conversation is the fact that there is raw efficiency (unadjusted, although they usually include estimates) and adjusted efficiency... sometimes the adjustments are warranted and reasonable, but in some cases they are flawed.

 

[Dr.Don]

FIFY

Gold Vision...while stats are fun for those with time to digest and predict, I can digest and predict the past, after the outcome. I can also digest and predict that I have more fun just watching and/or listening to the event, without worrying about how the final outcome affects the game before it started. I am too damned old to worry about anything else. And my beer is still cold, and my Jack is in good supply.

 

[GopherGack]

I think the importance of tempo, perhaps especially in the Big10, is how it changes the flow of the game. Most Big10 teams don't like to play at a fast tempo so if you can speed them up they might make more mistakes. So while the relative quantities of possessions might not change based on tempo the quality of those possessions could.

 

[RolGnav]

To play up tempo, you need good ball handlers too. I don't know if you can say that about the current players right now.

 

[burton34]

Gopher07, with all due respect, I'm afraid you do not understand what 'tempo' or 'adjusted tempo' means.

Do some more studying and let me know if you have follow-up questions. Here's something to get you started:

Tempo is essentially just possessions per 40 minutes. Both teams are going to have approximately the same number of possessions in a game (i.e., possessions alternate). You're not going to have a game where one team has 69 possessions and the other team has 63. Step back and think about it.

Thank you for the lesson, professor.

 

[Mikie S]

I've looked at that site before (kempom.com) and it is interesting.

HOWEVER, try sorting the stats by column (347 total teams).
AdjO: Top 44 teams with winning records. Bottom 11 teams with losing records.
AdjD: Top 40 teams with winning records. Bottom 26 teams with losing records.
AdjT: Top 2 teams with losing records. Bottom 3 teams with winning records.

In this simplified scheme, Tempo seems to matter only a little, but dominating Adjusted Offense & Defense is huge. (Pity poor Grambling ... last in both AdjO & AdjD with a 0-28 record)

 

[Winasota Gopher]

I've looked at that site before (kempom.com) and it is interesting.

HOWEVER, try sorting the stats by column (347 total teams).
AdjO: Top 44 teams with winning records. Bottom 11 teams with losing records.
AdjD: Top 40 teams with winning records. Bottom 26 teams with losing records.
AdjT: Top 2 teams with losing records. Bottom 3 teams with winning records.

In this simplified scheme, Tempo seems to matter only a little, but dominating Adjusted Offense & Defense is huge. (Pity poor Grambling ... last in both AdjO & AdjD with a 0-28 record)

I would agree tempo has nothing to do with winning and losing. In fact your tempo state could and is effected via early turnovers and allowing fast break points. Makes tubby look even worse knowing what I know about our ability to cough it up over the past 6 years

 

[Gopher Warrior]

Yep - there is little correlation between tempo and efficiency. It's just something people like to claim exists.

I think this is good news for the Big Ten -- that you've got teams like Indiana, Iowa and potentially now Minnesota who keep up a nice pace.

"You can't play like that in the Big Ten" is nonsense. And if you get teams playing YOUR style instead of THEIRS, it's to your advantage.

 

[Winasota Gopher]

Yep - there is little correlation between tempo and efficiency. It's just something people like to claim exists.

I think this is good news for the Big Ten -- that you've got teams like Indiana, Iowa and potentially now Minnesota who keep up a nice pace.

"You can't play like that in the Big Ten" is nonsense. And if you get teams playing YOUR style instead of THEIRS, it's to your advantage.

The last part is key. Richie P will be successful only if he figures out a way to force Wisconsin, Michigan State and Northwestern to play our style rather than theirs. I honestly believe Tubby wanted to run, he just was so damn confused as to how to get his hi low offense to do it... he was half in the bucket by recruiting undersized athletic 4s and 3s with 5s that were geared towards a high lo game and never recruited a PG in an attempt to maximize shooters .... cannot have both, hopefully Richie P sticks with it and forces teams to play his game .... time will tell.

 

[GopherGack]

To play up tempo, you need good ball handlers too. I don't know if you can say that about the current players right now.

I disagree with this. Much of the time the ball handlers will be running free in an open court situation. You need good ball handlers when you're getting pressured/pressed or opposition is running a trapping defense. Neither of those things is going to be happen when you're trying to get out and run with the ball.

What you do need however is ways to get into your break. So you need players that can create turnovers by either getting into a passing lane or stripping the ball from an opposing player and you need bigs who can own the defensive boards. That will allow your guards to drift up court waiting for the outlet instead of having to come back and crash the boards. Of those we are decent at creating steals and have no idea how EE and whoever plays the 4 next year will handle rebounding. I will say though that EE is one of the best passing big men I've seen in quite some time. I think he will be good at getting a rebound and immediately looking for that quick outlet pass up the floor to a guard instead of waiting for all the traffic to clear and slowing down the tempo.

 

[sunnyday2]

Some things I'v learned:

You get people to play your tempo, especially if that means faster, 1) by getting ahead and 2) with pressure defense, but mainly by getting ahead and making 'em play catch up. You've got to take "milking the clock" away as a strategy.

You always need good ball handlers, i.e. people who can protect the ball and not turn it over, and people who can recognize and hit the open man. I agree the need is more obvious vs. a really good pressure defense, but running free ain't worth much if you just throw up a crappy shot rather than find the open man (and hopefully in a spot from which that specific man can hit that specific shot).

Finally some people distinguish possessions from plays. A single possession might consist of more than 1 play, as in where there's an offensive rebound. Then there's possessions that do not result in a shot, as in where there's a turnover. "Getting extra possessions" means getting more plays and/or more shots, not technically more possession, but I still call that winning the possession game, which allows you to win even if you have a poorer shooting percentage. Sop you always need guys who can get you an offensive board, you always need guys who can create turnovers, and you always need good ball handlers, just like you always need good shooters and/or scorers.

Agreed there is not a good or a bad tempo. Fast, those commercials with the kids to the contrary, is not necessarily better. But it's a lot better if your opponent is uncomfortable playing fast. Watch the Hopkins girls and you know what I mean.