Final Field of 68 Projection (March 13)

[SelectionSunday]

Final Field of 68 Projection (March 13, 4:01 a.m. ET)

Here's the final version of our Field of 68 projection.

***Please note there is one contingency. If Memphis beats UConn in Sunday's American championship game, the Tigers will replace Saint Mary's in the bracket. Thus Saint Mary's is my last team in.

RPI is noted in parentheses.

FIELD OF 68
America East (1): Stony Brook (59)

American (3): UConn (41), Cincinnati (47), Temple (60)

ACC (6): Virginia (3), North Carolina (5), Miami (9), Duke (20), Notre Dame (32), Pitt (52)

Atlantic Sun (1): Florida Gulf Coast (208)

Atlantic 10 (4): Dayton (21), Saint Joseph's (23), Saint Bonaventure (30), VCU (31)

Big East (5): Villanova (4), Xavier (7), Seton Hall (19), Providence (39), Butler (56)

Big Sky (1): Weber State (108)

Big South (1): NC-Asheville (138)

B1G (7): Michigan State (11), Purdue (14), Maryland (15), Indiana (24), Iowa (29), Wisconsin (42), Michigan (57)

Big XII (7): Kansas (1), Oklahoma (6), West Virginia (10), Iowa State (22), Baylor (25), Texas (27), Texas Tech (36)

Big West (1): Hawaii (81)

Colonial (1): NC-Wilmington (44)

Conference USA (1): Middle Tennessee (77)

Horizon (1): Green Bay (113)

Ivy (1): Yale (43)

Metro Atlantic (2): Monmouth (53), Iona (79)

MAC (1): Buffalo (91)

MEAC (1): Hampton (155)

Missouri Valley (1): Northern Iowa (70)

Mountain West (2): San Diego State (40), Fresno State (66)

Northeast (1): Fairleigh Dickinson (204)

Ohio Valley (1): Austin Peay (189)

Pac 12 (7): Oregon (2), Utah (8), Cal (16), Arizona (26), Oregon State (33), Colorado (35), USC (51)

Patriot (1): Holy Cross (248)

SEC (2): Kentucky (12), Texas A&M (17)

Southern (1): Chattanooga (50)

Southland (1): Stephen F. Austin (62)

SWAC (1): Southern U (186)

Summit (1): South Dakota State (28)

Sun Belt (1): UALR (45)/UL-Monroe (96) winner in Sunday's championship game

West Coast (2): ***Saint Mary's (37), Gonzaga (46)

WAC (1): Bakersfield (118)
_________________________________
Last 4 In: Saint Mary's (37), San Diego State (40), Pitt (52), Michigan (57)

First 4 Out: Wichita State (48), Valparaiso (49), South Carolina (65), Syracuse (71)

Others Considered: Florida (55), Tulsa (58), Vanderbilt (61), Georgia (64), George Washington (68), Alabama (73)

Non-Power 6 At-Larges (8): Dayton (21), Saint Joseph's (23)/VCU (31) loser in Sunday's A-10 championship game, Saint Bonaventure (30), Saint Mary's (37), San Diego State (40), Cincinnati (47), Monmouth (53), Temple (60)
__________________________________________
The Numbers vs. Joe Lunardi and Jerry Palm
I've been projecting the NCAA Tournament Field since the 1991-92 season. I've been perfect on only three occasions, the last time two seasons ago. Here's how I've fared vs. Joe Lunardi (ESPN) and Jerry Palm (CBS) since the 2010-11 season. We're in a dead heat heading into today's bracket.

Jerry Palm (CBS) At-Large Projections
2010-11: 35/37 (St. Mary’s/Virginia Tech; UAB/USC in instead)
2011-12: 35/37 (Northwestern/Seton Hall; Iona/NC State in instead)
2012-13: 36/37 (Tennessee; Middle Tennessee in instead)
2013-14: 35/36 (SMU; NC State in instead)
2014-15: 35/36 (Colorado State; UCLA in instead)
Since Field of 68: 176/183 (96.2%)

Joe Lunardi (ESPN) At-Large Projections
2010-11: 34/37 (Colorado/St. Mary’s/Virginia Tech; Georgia/UAB/VCU in instead)
2011-12: 36/37 (Seton Hall; Iona in instead)
2012-13: 37/37 – perfect --
2013-14: 35/36 (SMU; NC State in instead)
2014-15: 34/36 (Colorado State/Temple; Indiana/UCLA in instead)
Since Field of 68: 176/183 (96.2%)

SelectionSunday At-Large Projections
2010-11: 35/37 (Colorado/Virginia Tech; Georgia/UAB in instead)
2011-12: 36/37 (Seton Hall; Iona in instead)
2012-13: 36/37 (Kentucky; La Salle in instead)
2013-14: 36/36 – perfect --
2014-15: 33/36 (Colorado State/Old Dominion/Temple; BYU/Indiana/UCLA in instead)
Since Field of 68: 176/183 (96.2%)
Overall (since 1991-92 season): 783/829 (94.5%)

 

[Holy Man]

I saw some people associated with Michigan this morning and they told me they had their eyes on Memphis and UConn. A UConn win and they think they are in. I told them I knew a guy who is on par with Lunardi had them in and they were pleased, but are sweating a bit.

 

[Gopher in Qatar]

Good work SS. I always enjoy following along with your updates. Thanks!

 

[wisbadger303]

SS, is your bracket included in the bracket matrix site?

 

[dannygopher9100]

Thanks for the work as always.

Hoping for a Memphis win so Michigan is really sweating it out.

 

[SelectionSunday]

Thanks.

A couple things I would add, because I didn't add comments this year:

It came down to 3 teams for the final 2 bids. I chose San Diego State and Saint Mary's, leaving Wichita State as my first team out. I just think at least 2 or 3 (perhaps more) of these mid-major regular-season champions are going to be rewarded at the expense of teams like Syracuse and South Carolina.

I'm very confident the committee will select Monmouth. They know they'd be sending a bad message if they left out a conference-champion mid-major that went out and scheduled high-major games, and one their share of 'em.

I left Syracuse out, but I'll certainly understand if they get in. Orange have 5 top-50 wins, tied with Temple for the most among my final 11 bubble teams. That said, I don't want to hear Jim Boeheim whine if he doesn't get in. You're 19-13 Jimmy. That does matter, too.

The one team I'll be completely pissed if they get a bid because they don't deserve it: SOUTH CAROLINA. Have played a grand total of 2 games vs. teams projected into the field. Gamecocks are 1-1 with a win over Texas A&M. That's awful, not to mention their #270 non-conference schedule strength, worst among bubble teams.

 

[SelectionSunday]

SS, is your bracket included in the bracket matrix site?

No.

 

[howeda7]

Looks like the batting average took a beating for all this year. Monmouth not getting in while Tulsa, Syracuse, etc. do is ridiculous

 

[GophersInIowa]

Looks like the batting average took a beating for all this year. Monmouth not getting in while Tulsa, Syracuse, etc. do is ridiculous

Impossible for anyone to predict this debacle. Syracuse as a #10 seed? C'mon.

 

[howeda7]

Impossible for anyone to predict this debacle. Syracuse as a #10 seed? C'mon.

Boeheim's a world-class whiner.

 

[SelectionSunday]

Palm, Lunardi move ahead of me

Palm missed 2. He had Monmouth and Saint Bonaventure, Tulsa and Vandy made it instead.

Lunardi missed 3. He had Saint Bonaventure, Saint Mary's, and San Diego State, Syracuse, Tulsa, and Vandy made it instead.

I missed 4. ? Had Monmouth, Saint Bonaventure, Saint Mary's, and San Diego State, Syracuse, Tulsa, Vandy, and Wichita State made it instead.

Licking my wounds.