SelectionSunday
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ROAD TO SELECTION SUNDAY, MN – Without further ado, the final Field of 68 projection for the 2024-25 college basketball season. There is 5 conference championship games Sunday, so I will list those here and update the winners before the final selections are revealed at 5 p.m. on the CBS Selection Show.
Not uncommon, there is a contingency for my final at-large team in the field. If UAB beats Memphis on Sunday in the American championship game, the Blazers will knock my “last team in” (Boise State) out of the field.
Please note, I am trying to match what I think the Selection Committee will do. Sunday conference championship games are noted in bold. Final NCAA NET rankings will be updated later this morning.
FINAL FIELD OF 68 PROJECTION (1:25 a.m. March 16)
Automatic Qualifiers (31)
America East: Bryant (151)
American: Memphis (48)/UAB (110) winner – if UAB wins, Boise State knocked out of the Field of 68
ACC: Duke (1)
ASUN: Lipscomb (84)
Atlantic 10: VCU (31)/George Mason (73) winner
Big East: Saint John’s (13)
Big Sky: Montana (141)
Big South: High Point (82)
Big Ten: Michigan (27)/Wisconsin (15) winner
Big XII: Houston (3)
Big West: UC-San Diego (35)
Colonial: UNC-Wilmington (102)
Conference USA: Liberty (64)
Horizon: Robert Morris (139)
Ivy: Yale (71)/Cornell (127) winner
MAAC: Mount Saint Mary’s (240)
MAC: Akron (91)
MEAC: Norfolk State (188)
Missouri Valley: Drake (56)
Mountain West: Colorado State (50)
NEC: Saint Francis (297)
OVC: SIU-Edwardsville (216)
Patriot: American (226)
SEC: Florida (4)/Tennessee (6) winner
SoCon: Wofford (131)
Southland: McNeese (58)
SWAC: Alabama State (275)
Summit: Omaha (160)
Sun Belt: Troy (99)
WCC: Gonzaga (8)
WAC: Grand Canyon (92)
At-Large Selections (37)
ACC (2): Clemson (22), Louisville (23)
Big East (3): Marquette (25), UConn (32), Creighton (37)
Big Ten (8): Michigan State (11), Wisconsin (15), Illinois (17), Purdue (19), UCLA (26), Michigan (27), Oregon (29), Indiana (54)
Big XII (7): Texas Tech (7), Iowa State (10), Arizona (12), Kansas (20), BYU (24), Baylor (30), West Virginia (51)
Mountain West (4): Utah State (38), New Mexico (42), Boise State (43), San Diego State (52)
SEC (12): Auburn (2), Alabama (5), Tennessee (6), Kentucky (14), Missouri (16), Texas A&M (18), Ole Miss (28), Georgia (33), Mississippi State (34), Texas (39), Arkansas (40), Oklahoma (44)
WCC (1): Saint Mary’s (21)
_____________________
Last 4 In: San Diego State, Texas, Indiana, (last team in) Boise State
First 4 Out: (first team out) Vanderbilt (47), Xavier (45), Wake Forest (68), Ohio State (41)
Next 4 Out: North Carolina (36), UC-Irvine (60), Dayton (67), SMU (46)
Last 4 Automatic Qualifiers: American (226), Mount Saint Mary’s (240), Alabama State (275), Saint Francis (297)
Non-Power 6 At-Large Bids (5): Saint Mary’s (21), Utah State (38), New Mexico (42), Boise State (43), San Diego State (52)
BEST 3 WINS FOR LAST 4 IN/FIRST 4 OUT/NEXT 4 OUT
Last 4 In
San Diego State – vs. Houston (3), UC-San Diego (35), vs. Creighton (37),
Texas – Kentucky (14), vs. Texas A&M (18), @ Mississippi State (34)
Indiana -- @ Michigan State (11), Purdue (19), @ Ohio State (41)
Boise State -- vs. Saint Mary’s (21), Clemson (22), vs. New Mexico (42)
First 4 Out
Vanderbilt -- Tennessee (6), Kentucky (14), @ Texas A&M (18)
Xavier -- @ Marquette (25), UConn (32), Creighton (37)
Wake Forest – vs. Michigan (27), North Carolina (36), @ SMU (46)
Ohio State – Maryland (9), vs. Kentucky (14), @ Purdue (19)
Next 4 Out
North Carolina – vs. UCLA (26), SMU (46), vs. Dayton (67)
Dayton – Marquette (25), @ VCU (31), vs. UConn (32)
UC-Irvine -- @ UC-San Diego (35), @ Northern Iowa (93), @ Cal State Northridge (104)
SMU – Pitt (62), vs. LSU (89), @ Notre Dame (103)
37 AT-LARGES/RECORD vs. THE FIELD
Auburn (17-5)
Tennessee (16-5)
New Mexico (8-4)
Alabama (15-8)
Michigan State (9-5)
Maryland (8-5)
Texas A&M (11-8)
Kentucky (12-9)
Oregon (9-7)
BYU (7-5)
Texas Tech (7-5)
UConn (6-5)
UCLA (7-6)
Illinois (9-8)
Ole Miss (11-10)
Missouri (10-10
Saint Mary’s (3-3)
San Diego State (7-7) – last 4 in
Utah State (6-6)
Purdue (8-9)
Boise State (6-7) – last team in
Iowa State (6-7)
Wisconsin (6-7)
Arkansas (9-11)
Clemson (3-4)
Arizona (8-11)
Creighton (5-7)
Marquette (5-7)
Louisville (4-6)
Oklahoma (8-12)
West Virginia (5-8)
Mississippi State (6-11)
Kansas (5-10)
Georgia (6-12)
Texas (6-12) – last 4 in
Baylor (5-11)
Indiana (3-10) – last 4 in
RECORD vs. THE FIELD OF FIRST 4 OUT & NEXT 4 OUT
Dayton (4-2)
Vanderbilt (6-12)
UC-Irvine (1-2)
Xavier (3-7)
Ohio State (4-11)
North Carolina (2-10)
SMU (1-5)
Wake Forest (1-6)
My record projecting the at-larges since the 1991-92 season:
Projecting the At-Large Qualifiers (1991-92 through 2023-24)
1991-92: 33/34
1992-93: 31/34
1993-94: 30/34
1994-95: 30/34
1995-96: 33/34
1996-97: 31/34
1997-98: 30/34
1998-99: 31/34
1999-00: 32/34
2000-01: 34/34 (perfect)
2001-02: 33/34
2002-03: 33/34
2003-04: 31/34
2004-05: 32/34
2005-06: 31/34
2006-07: 32/34
2007-08: 33/34
2008-09: 34/34 (perfect)
2009-10: 33/34
2010-11: 35/37
2011-12: 36/37
2012-13: 36/37
2013-14: 36/36 (perfect)
2014-15: 33/36
2015-16: 32/36
2016-17: 36/36 (perfect)
2017-18: 33/36
2018-19: 34/36
2019-20: Scamdemic-2020
2020-21: 36/37
2021-22: 34/36
2022-23: 34/36
2023-24: 35/36
TOTALS: 1057/1118 (94.5%)
Buzz King Since Field Expanded to 68: 450/472 (95.3%)
Jerry Palm Since Field Expanded to 68
2010-11: 35/37
2011-12: 35/37
2012-13: 36/37
2013-14: 35/36
2014-15: 35/36
2015-16: 34/36
2016-17: 36/36 (perfect)
2017-18: 35/36
2018-19: 35/36
2019-20:
2020-21: 35/37
2021-22: 35/36
2022-23: 35/36
2023-24: 34/36
TOTALS: 455/472 (96.4%)
Joe Lunardi Since Field Expanded to 68
2010-11: 34/37
2011-12: 36/37
2012-13: 37/37 (perfect)
2013-14: 35/36
2014-15: 34/36
2015-16: 33/36
2016-17: 35/36
2017-18: 34/36
2018-19: 35/36
2019-20:
2020-21: 36/37
2021-22: 35/36
2022-23: 35/36
2023-24: 35/36
TOTALS: 454/472 (96.2%)
Worst 5 At-Large Rankings since 2019 Move to NET
#77 Rutgers (2022) – lost in First Four
#73 Saint John’s (2019) – lost in First Four
#72 Wichita State (2021) – lost in First Four
#70 Michigan State (2021) – lost in First Four
#67 Pitt (2023) – lost in 2nd round
Not uncommon, there is a contingency for my final at-large team in the field. If UAB beats Memphis on Sunday in the American championship game, the Blazers will knock my “last team in” (Boise State) out of the field.
Please note, I am trying to match what I think the Selection Committee will do. Sunday conference championship games are noted in bold. Final NCAA NET rankings will be updated later this morning.
FINAL FIELD OF 68 PROJECTION (1:25 a.m. March 16)
Automatic Qualifiers (31)
America East: Bryant (151)
American: Memphis (48)/UAB (110) winner – if UAB wins, Boise State knocked out of the Field of 68
ACC: Duke (1)
ASUN: Lipscomb (84)
Atlantic 10: VCU (31)/George Mason (73) winner
Big East: Saint John’s (13)
Big Sky: Montana (141)
Big South: High Point (82)
Big Ten: Michigan (27)/Wisconsin (15) winner
Big XII: Houston (3)
Big West: UC-San Diego (35)
Colonial: UNC-Wilmington (102)
Conference USA: Liberty (64)
Horizon: Robert Morris (139)
Ivy: Yale (71)/Cornell (127) winner
MAAC: Mount Saint Mary’s (240)
MAC: Akron (91)
MEAC: Norfolk State (188)
Missouri Valley: Drake (56)
Mountain West: Colorado State (50)
NEC: Saint Francis (297)
OVC: SIU-Edwardsville (216)
Patriot: American (226)
SEC: Florida (4)/Tennessee (6) winner
SoCon: Wofford (131)
Southland: McNeese (58)
SWAC: Alabama State (275)
Summit: Omaha (160)
Sun Belt: Troy (99)
WCC: Gonzaga (8)
WAC: Grand Canyon (92)
At-Large Selections (37)
ACC (2): Clemson (22), Louisville (23)
Big East (3): Marquette (25), UConn (32), Creighton (37)
Big Ten (8): Michigan State (11), Wisconsin (15), Illinois (17), Purdue (19), UCLA (26), Michigan (27), Oregon (29), Indiana (54)
Big XII (7): Texas Tech (7), Iowa State (10), Arizona (12), Kansas (20), BYU (24), Baylor (30), West Virginia (51)
Mountain West (4): Utah State (38), New Mexico (42), Boise State (43), San Diego State (52)
SEC (12): Auburn (2), Alabama (5), Tennessee (6), Kentucky (14), Missouri (16), Texas A&M (18), Ole Miss (28), Georgia (33), Mississippi State (34), Texas (39), Arkansas (40), Oklahoma (44)
WCC (1): Saint Mary’s (21)
_____________________
Last 4 In: San Diego State, Texas, Indiana, (last team in) Boise State
First 4 Out: (first team out) Vanderbilt (47), Xavier (45), Wake Forest (68), Ohio State (41)
Next 4 Out: North Carolina (36), UC-Irvine (60), Dayton (67), SMU (46)
Last 4 Automatic Qualifiers: American (226), Mount Saint Mary’s (240), Alabama State (275), Saint Francis (297)
Non-Power 6 At-Large Bids (5): Saint Mary’s (21), Utah State (38), New Mexico (42), Boise State (43), San Diego State (52)
BEST 3 WINS FOR LAST 4 IN/FIRST 4 OUT/NEXT 4 OUT
Last 4 In
San Diego State – vs. Houston (3), UC-San Diego (35), vs. Creighton (37),
Texas – Kentucky (14), vs. Texas A&M (18), @ Mississippi State (34)
Indiana -- @ Michigan State (11), Purdue (19), @ Ohio State (41)
Boise State -- vs. Saint Mary’s (21), Clemson (22), vs. New Mexico (42)
First 4 Out
Vanderbilt -- Tennessee (6), Kentucky (14), @ Texas A&M (18)
Xavier -- @ Marquette (25), UConn (32), Creighton (37)
Wake Forest – vs. Michigan (27), North Carolina (36), @ SMU (46)
Ohio State – Maryland (9), vs. Kentucky (14), @ Purdue (19)
Next 4 Out
North Carolina – vs. UCLA (26), SMU (46), vs. Dayton (67)
Dayton – Marquette (25), @ VCU (31), vs. UConn (32)
UC-Irvine -- @ UC-San Diego (35), @ Northern Iowa (93), @ Cal State Northridge (104)
SMU – Pitt (62), vs. LSU (89), @ Notre Dame (103)
37 AT-LARGES/RECORD vs. THE FIELD
Auburn (17-5)
Tennessee (16-5)
New Mexico (8-4)
Alabama (15-8)
Michigan State (9-5)
Maryland (8-5)
Texas A&M (11-8)
Kentucky (12-9)
Oregon (9-7)
BYU (7-5)
Texas Tech (7-5)
UConn (6-5)
UCLA (7-6)
Illinois (9-8)
Ole Miss (11-10)
Missouri (10-10
Saint Mary’s (3-3)
San Diego State (7-7) – last 4 in
Utah State (6-6)
Purdue (8-9)
Boise State (6-7) – last team in
Iowa State (6-7)
Wisconsin (6-7)
Arkansas (9-11)
Clemson (3-4)
Arizona (8-11)
Creighton (5-7)
Marquette (5-7)
Louisville (4-6)
Oklahoma (8-12)
West Virginia (5-8)
Mississippi State (6-11)
Kansas (5-10)
Georgia (6-12)
Texas (6-12) – last 4 in
Baylor (5-11)
Indiana (3-10) – last 4 in
RECORD vs. THE FIELD OF FIRST 4 OUT & NEXT 4 OUT
Dayton (4-2)
Vanderbilt (6-12)
UC-Irvine (1-2)
Xavier (3-7)
Ohio State (4-11)
North Carolina (2-10)
SMU (1-5)
Wake Forest (1-6)
My record projecting the at-larges since the 1991-92 season:
Projecting the At-Large Qualifiers (1991-92 through 2023-24)
1991-92: 33/34
1992-93: 31/34
1993-94: 30/34
1994-95: 30/34
1995-96: 33/34
1996-97: 31/34
1997-98: 30/34
1998-99: 31/34
1999-00: 32/34
2000-01: 34/34 (perfect)
2001-02: 33/34
2002-03: 33/34
2003-04: 31/34
2004-05: 32/34
2005-06: 31/34
2006-07: 32/34
2007-08: 33/34
2008-09: 34/34 (perfect)
2009-10: 33/34
2010-11: 35/37
2011-12: 36/37
2012-13: 36/37
2013-14: 36/36 (perfect)
2014-15: 33/36
2015-16: 32/36
2016-17: 36/36 (perfect)
2017-18: 33/36
2018-19: 34/36
2019-20: Scamdemic-2020
2020-21: 36/37
2021-22: 34/36
2022-23: 34/36
2023-24: 35/36
TOTALS: 1057/1118 (94.5%)
Buzz King Since Field Expanded to 68: 450/472 (95.3%)
Jerry Palm Since Field Expanded to 68
2010-11: 35/37
2011-12: 35/37
2012-13: 36/37
2013-14: 35/36
2014-15: 35/36
2015-16: 34/36
2016-17: 36/36 (perfect)
2017-18: 35/36
2018-19: 35/36
2019-20:
2020-21: 35/37
2021-22: 35/36
2022-23: 35/36
2023-24: 34/36
TOTALS: 455/472 (96.4%)
Joe Lunardi Since Field Expanded to 68
2010-11: 34/37
2011-12: 36/37
2012-13: 37/37 (perfect)
2013-14: 35/36
2014-15: 34/36
2015-16: 33/36
2016-17: 35/36
2017-18: 34/36
2018-19: 35/36
2019-20:
2020-21: 36/37
2021-22: 35/36
2022-23: 35/36
2023-24: 35/36
TOTALS: 454/472 (96.2%)
Worst 5 At-Large Rankings since 2019 Move to NET
#77 Rutgers (2022) – lost in First Four
#73 Saint John’s (2019) – lost in First Four
#72 Wichita State (2021) – lost in First Four
#70 Michigan State (2021) – lost in First Four
#67 Pitt (2023) – lost in 2nd round
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