Final "Field of 65" Projection (3/13/10)

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SelectionSunday

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A couple real quick comments. This is the most difficult time I've had selecting the last few teams. The final 4-5 bids were really a crapshoot, especially with Saturday's bid stealers (Houston, New Mexico State and perhaps even Washington). I won't be surprised at all if I miss 3 or 4 this year. I do not expect to match last year's 34-for-34, only the second time I was perfect selecting the at-larges since I started doing this in 1991-92. The most at-larges I have ever missed is 4 on three occasions, the last time in 1998.

The single most difficult thing for me to decide was what to do with UTEP, Cal and Utah State, who failed to win their conference tournaments. I decided to take all 3, despite the fact their resumes are very weak. Going with my gut on those 3; their resumes say they don't deserve an at-large bid, but in a year where the bubble was really weak, I decided to reward these teams for winning their regular-season conference championships. My hunch is the Selection Committee will reward at least 1 or 2 of 'em, if not all 3.

One last thing, I'm sure a few of you are wondering. ... if the Big Ten only gets 5 bids, I'm confident the Gophers will get selected ahead of Illinois. The Illini are my last team in. They will be replaced by Mississippi State if the Bulldogs defeat Kentucky tomorrow. That's the only contingency I have for this projection. So without further ado (in alphabetical order), your 2010 NCAA participants are. ...

1. Arkansas-Pine Bluff (SWAC)
2. Baylor (Big 12)
3. BYU (Mountain West)
4. Butler (Horizon)
5. Cal (Pac 10)
6. Clemson (ACC)
7. Cornell (Ivy)
8. Duke (ACC)
9. East Tennessee State (Atlantic Sun)
10. Florida State (ACC)
11. Georgetown (Big East)
12. Georgia Tech (ACC)
13. Gonzaga (West Coast)
14. Houston (Conference USA)
15. Illinois (Big 10)*** (see contingency below)
16. Kansas (Big 12)
17. Kansas State (Big 12)
18. Kentucky (SEC)
19. Lehigh (Patriot)
20. Louisville (Big East)
21. Marquette (Big East)
22. Maryland (ACC)
23. Michigan State (Big 10)
24. Minnesota (Big 10)
25. Missouri (Big 12)
26. Montana (Big Sky)
27. Morgan State (MEAC)
28. Murray State (Ohio Valley)
29. New Mexico (Mountain West)
30. New Mexico State (WAC)
31. North Texas (Sun Belt)
32. Northern Iowa (Missouri Valley)
33. Notre Dame (Big East)
34. Oakland (Summit)
35. Ohio (MAC)
36. Ohio State (Big 10)
37. Oklahoma State (Big 12)
38. Old Dominion (Colonial)
39. Pitt (Big East)
40. Purdue (Big 10)
41. Richmond (Atlantic 10)
42. Robert Morris (Northeast)
43. St. Mary's (West Coast)
44. Sam Houston State (Southland)
45. San Diego State (Mountain West)
46. Siena (MAAC)
47. Syracuse (Big East)
48. Temple (Atlantic 10)
49. Tennessee (SEC)
50. Texas (Big 12)
51. Texas A&M (Big 12)
52. UCSB (Big West)
53. UNLV (Mountain West)
54. Utah State (WAC)
55. UTEP (Conference USA)
56. Vanderbilt (SEC)
57. Vermont (America East)
58. Villanova (Big East)
59. Wake Forest (ACC)
60. Washington (Pac 10)
61. West Virginia (Big East)
62. Winthrop (Big South)
63. Wisconsin (Big 10)
64. Wofford (Southern)
65. Xavier (Atlantic 10)

***Contingency: Mississippi State will replace Illinois in the Field of 65 if the Bulldogs defeat Kentucky on Sunday.

Non-BCS At-Larges (8): BYU, Gonzaga, New Mexico, Richmond/Temple loser, UNLV, Utah State, UTEP, Xavier

Last 4 In: Cal, Illinois, Utah State, UTEP

First 4 Out: Florida, Seton Hall, Virginia Tech, William & Mary

Multiple-Bid Conferences: Big East (8), ACC (6), Big 10 (6), Mountain West (4), Atlantic 10 (3), SEC (3), Conference USA (2), Pac 10 (2), West Coast (2), WAC (2)
 

Great analysis once again. Here's hoping you're right about us not even being on the last 4 in. I feel reasonably good, but it will be at least a bit nerve-wracking.
 

Lot of pressure here SS...you're historically better than most all the national bracketologists :)
 

A note on Utah State, UTEP and CAL. I think you're right, they're all in. In the case of Utah State and UTEP, allow me to play a bit of conspiracy theory. There's all sorts of Political rucus these days about the BCS and the lack of opportunity for the small conferences. Due to the most of the top mid-majors winning thier conference tournaments, there are fewer mid-major at-large bids then usual. I think there's a certain political/PR pressure that would be brought to bear on the Selection Committee if teams with resumes as strong as UTEP and Utah State were kept out.

As for Cal. The head of the Selection Comm. is the AD of UCLA. Post-1985 no major conference has ever been given only one bid. I don't believe they would do it to the Pac 10 this year. I think UW was in either way. I think Cal is in either way.
 

Cant complain about who you picked really. I like the fact that you have UTEP and Utah St more on the bubble than the Gophs because quite frankly thats what it should be like because if you look at the OVERALL BODY OF WORK theirs fails in comparison to the Gophs
 


I hope you're right but I fear that the committee will take the easy way out and just create the either or scenario with Minnesota and Illinois. They've done that kinda thing before because they are under pressure to set up all the seeds by 5pm. I can't see them delaying the selection show if the Gophers/OSU game goes 3 OT's, for example.

I also can't see them giving six bids to the Big 10 in a year with so many stolen bids.
 

Moses87 said:
I hope you're right but I fear that the committee will take the easy way out and just create the either or scenario with Minnesota and Illinois. They've done that kinda thing before because they are under pressure to set up all the seeds by 5pm. I can't see them delaying the selection show if the Gophers/OSU game goes 3 OT's, for example.

I also can't see them giving six bids to the Big 10 in a year with so many stolen bids.
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The Gophers beat Illinois in their house just weeks ago, that is all the excuse the committee needs. it is not an either or.
 

The only either or would be whether Minnesota should be x seed or x seed. They CANNOT possibly find a way to include Illinois w/o including Minnesota because A) Gophs beat them, B) Gophs finished better C) Gophs have better "good wins", and D) have a better RPI.
 

Moses87 said:
I hope you're right but I fear that the committee will take the easy way out and just create the either or scenario with Minnesota and Illinois. They've done that kinda thing before because they are under pressure to set up all the seeds by 5pm. I can't see them delaying the selection show if the Gophers/OSU game goes 3 OT's, for example.

I also can't see them giving six bids to the Big 10 in a year with so many stolen bids.
Click to expand...

Put you money where you mouth is Moses. You think MN is out and Kent State is in. That tells me what I need to know about your bracketology abilities. But maybe I'm wrong. List your teams. Beat SS. I set the line at SS -5.
 



howeda7 said:
Put you money where you mouth is Moses. You think MN is out and Kent State is in. That tells me what I need to know about your bracketology abilities. But maybe I'm wrong. List your teams. Beat SS. I set the line at SS -5.
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WHAT ARE YOU TALKING ABOUT?!?!?! THEIR RPI IS 45 NO WAY ARE THEY OUT!!!!!
:D :clap: :cool02: :rolleyes:
 

Moses87 said:
I can't see them delaying the selection show if the Gophers/OSU game goes 3 OT's, for example.
Click to expand...

What, you think that CBS will just shut the game down? You realize that CBS is televising the MN-OSU game, right? If it goes three OTs they are kind of forced to keep it on the TV until it is over. Quit trying to post meaningless drivel to try to prove that the Gophers don't belong.
 

For some reason I think Virginia Tech will make it in.
 

I think Wake is much closer to the cut line than most. Behind the Gophers at this point.
 




After all of the what if questions you've fielded over the last several weeks about the Gophers how good does it feel to see the Minnesota in the field at this point?

I still think Tubby should have gotten strong consideration for coach of the year.
 

SS

Yesterday I had to pull for Duke and today I have to pull for Kentucky?

This is tough!

:mad:
 

My weird hunch is

If any of your three conf. regular season champs get left out, it will be Utah State.....
 


Cal, Utah State & UTEP

"If any of your three conf. regular season champs get left out, it will be Utah State..... "

More than anything, that's the thing I'm most interested in seeing what the Selection Committee does. They could take all 3 or they might not take any of 'em. We'll find out how much they value those regular-season championships because those teams' resumes are really weak when compared vs. the likes of the Gophers, Illinois, Florida and Virginia Tech, teams all being mentioned as on the bubble.

My hunch would be that if they were to leave only one of 'em out, it would be UTEP.
 

So you missed Florida out (had Illinois in), any others? Not the easiest format to quickly figure this out, lol.
 






congrats, fine job as usually...certainly you are worthy of your name...
 

Thanks for all the time you put in on this stuff. Of all the place to go for this type of information I find your analysis the best.
 

Selection..what's your thoughts on possible upsets this year?
 

Congrats. Though you got me in a bit of trouble. I convinced my Gator better-half that you and Lunardi couldn't both possibly be wrong and there was just no way Florida was in.
 

Excellent work again SS. I knew we were in yesterday morning after your post.

I would be interested in your thoughts after the fact on committee choice of Florida over Illinois.

Do you still think committee should have picked Illinois over Florida?

Was Illinois (B10) robbed?
 

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