Final ESPN SP+ has Gophers at #27 (#9 defense)

[swingman]

Final 2023 SP+ Preseason Rankings​

TEAM	RATING	OFF. SP+	DEF. SP+	AVG. W	CONF. W	SOS
1. Georgia	29.2	40.2 (6)	10.9 (2)	10.6	6.6	0.869 (45)
2. Ohio St.	29.0	44.4 (1)	15.4 (12)	10.0	7.4	0.826 (18)
3. Michigan	28.6	40.1 (7)	11.5 (4)	10.4	7.4	0.863 (40)
4. Alabama	28.1	42.9 (4)	14.8 (11)	9.6	5.9	0.803 (6)
5. LSU	23.3	39.2 (10)	15.9 (14)	8.9	5.3	0.809 (11)
6. Penn St.	23.2	36.0 (22)	12.8 (5)	9.6	6.7	0.851 (29)
7. Clemson	22.9	37.1 (14)	14.2 (8)	9.7	6.4	0.874 (51)
8. Tennessee	22.4	43.1 (3)	20.7 (32)	8.9	5.1	0.819 (16)
9. Texas	22.2	38.3 (11)	16.1 (16)	9.1	6.8	0.836 (21)
10. USC	20.9	43.5 (2)	22.6 (47)	9.4	7.0	0.871 (46)
11. Notre Dame	19.9	35.3 (26)	15.4 (13)	8.8	0.0	0.843 (24)
12. Florida St.	19.1	35.7 (23)	16.6 (18)	8.9	5.9	0.857 (32)
13. Oregon	19.0	41.7 (5)	22.8 (50)	9.2	6.6	0.875 (52)
14. Utah	18.8	38.2 (12)	19.4 (26)	8.6	6.3	0.847 (27)
15. Oklahoma	18.8	40.0 (8)	21.2 (35)	9.2	6.4	0.886 (60)
16. Texas A&M	18.5	29.5 (44)	11.0 (3)	7.9	4.2	0.799 (4)
17. Washington	17.2	39.9 (9)	22.7 (48)	8.7	6.2	0.872 (47)
18. Ole Miss	17.1	36.9 (17)	19.8 (28)	7.6	4.0	0.793 (3)
19. Wisconsin	16.1	30.5 (43)	14.3 (10)	8.9	6.2	0.885 (59)
20. Kansas St.	14.5	34.8 (27)	20.3 (31)	7.8	5.4	0.860 (39)
21. TCU	14.5	36.5 (18)	22.0 (43)	7.9	5.2	0.859 (38)
22. Iowa	14.0	22.9 (79)	8.9 (1)	8.4	5.8	0.883 (58)
23. Florida	13.7	35.5 (25)	21.8 (41)	6.5	3.7	0.777 (1)
24. Kentucky	13.4	26.6 (61)	13.2 (6)	7.2	3.7	0.811 (13)
25. N. Carolina	12.9	37.0 (16)	24.1 (57)	8.0	5.1	0.880 (56)
26. Auburn	12.8	32.0 (38)	19.2 (24)	6.9	3.3	0.800 (5)
27. Minnesota	12.8	27.1 (57)	14.2 (9)	7.1	4.8	0.824 (17)
28. UCLA	12.5	37.3 (13)	24.8 (63)	8.5	5.9	0.895 (65)
29. Miss. St.	12.4	33.6 (31)	21.2 (36)	6.9	3.2	0.818 (15)
30. Arkansas	12.1	36.3 (19)	24.3 (59)	6.8	3.1	0.806 (8)
31. Oregon St.	11.8	32.5 (35)	20.7 (33)	8.1	5.4	0.893 (64)
32. Texas Tech	11.5	37.0 (15)	25.5 (66)	7.1	4.9	0.858 (35)
33. S. Carolina	11.3	36.1 (21)	24.8 (61)	6.2	3.5	0.788 (2)
34. Baylor	10.9	33.9 (30)	23.0 (52)	7.1	4.7	0.859 (36)
35. Missouri	10.5	27.8 (52)	17.3 (19)	6.3	3.3	0.809 (10)
36. Pittsburgh	10.3	32.1 (37)	21.8 (40)	7.3	4.7	0.879 (54)
37. Miami	10.0	28.5 (49)	18.5 (21)	7.6	4.4	0.873 (49)
38. Oklahoma St.	9.8	34.1 (28)	24.2 (58)	7.4	5.0	0.899 (66)
39. UCF	9.6	31.2 (41)	21.7 (39)	7.1	4.6	0.876 (53)
40. Louisville	9.5	28.1 (50)	18.7 (22)	7.8	5.2	0.904 (67)
41. Maryland	9.3	28.9 (47)	19.6 (27)	7.4	4.6	0.850 (28)
42. NC St.	9.2	26.8 (60)	17.6 (20)	7.4	4.3	0.888 (62)
43. Illinois	9.0	22.7 (82)	13.7 (7)	6.9	4.7	0.874 (50)
44. Tulane	7.3	33.2 (34)	25.9 (68)	9.0	6.2	0.955 (101)
45. Wake Forest	6.8	31.8 (39)	25.1 (64)	6.6	3.8	0.866 (43)
46. Michigan St.	6.3	26.5 (62)	20.2 (30)	5.6	3.5	0.808 (9)
47. SMU	6.0	36.2 (20)	30.2 (93)	8.8	6.5	0.934 (82)
48. Boise St.	5.8	27.3 (54)	21.5 (37)	8.4	6.3	0.940 (88)
49. Iowa St.	5.6	21.5 (86)	15.9 (15)	5.4	3.3	0.844 (26)
50. Duke	5.6	29.1 (45)	23.6 (54)	6.1	3.2	0.857 (34)
51. BYU	5.1	31.4 (40)	26.3 (70)	5.7	3.5	0.852 (30)
52. Memphis	4.9	33.4 (32)	28.4 (83)	8.8	6.1	0.961 (108)
53. Cincinnati	4.9	23.9 (75)	19.0 (23)	6.2	4.0	0.892 (63)
54. Wash. St.	4.6	27.1 (56)	22.5 (45)	6.6	4.4	0.881 (57)
55. Syracuse	4.3	26.3 (64)	21.9 (42)	6.7	3.5	0.886 (61)
56. UTSA	4.3	32.3 (36)	28.1 (80)	8.4	6.1	0.935 (84)
57. Houston	4.3	35.5 (24)	31.3 (101)	5.6	3.2	0.864 (42)
58. Purdue	4.0	27.7 (53)	23.7 (55)	5.1	3.4	0.830 (19)
59. Nebraska	3.7	25.4 (68)	21.7 (38)	5.8	3.3	0.863 (41)

 

[swingman]

Gophers at 12.8 rating.

NE at 3.7. Gophs should be favored by 12 at home using these analytics.

UNC at 12.9, Iowa at 14.0...should be very good matchups.

UNC just a field goal favorite in Chapel Hill using these numbers as of now.

Iowa would be a four-point favorite using this in Iowa City today.

WI at 16.1...playing at Huntington makes that a toss-up.

MSU at 6.3. Good to have at home. Gophs by 10.

Illini at 9.0...good to have them at home, Gophs by a TD.

Purdue at 4.0. Gophs by 6 in West Lafayette using Connelly's numbers and 3 pt home advantage.

ULL by 3 TDs here, NW by 17 in Evanston, EMU by 30 here.

Ohio State at 29...so big underdogs in Columbus...around 19 points.

Mich at 28.6...Gophs would be 14 point dogs today by Connelly.

 

[PoockItInfor6]

Gophers at 12.8 rating.

NE at 3.7. Gophs should be favored by 12 at home using these analytics.

UNC at 12.9, Iowa at 14.0...should be very good matchups.

UNC just a field goal favorite in Chapel Hill using these numbers as of now.

Iowa would be a four-point favorite using this in Iowa City today.

WI at 16.1...playing at Huntington makes that a toss-up.

MSU at 6.3. Good to have at home. Gophs by 10.

Illini at 9.0...good to have them at home, Gophs by a TD.

Purdue at 4.0. Gophs by 6 in West Lafayette using Connelly's numbers and 3 pt home advantage.

ULL by 3 TDs here, NW by 17 in Evanston, EMU by 30 here.

Ohio State at 29...so big underdogs in Columbus...around 19 points.

Mich at 28.6...Gophs would be 14 point dogs today by Connelly.

The improvement that should be made to SP+ is that it should factor in how a coach/school has under/over achieved their players’ ratings in the past. If Texas historically recruits in the 5-10 range and on field results are in the 30-40 range… why keep them top 10 to start every year? Same with Nebraska, Tennessee, etc.

 

[fmlizard]

I think this is one of the most interesting schedules the Gophers have ever had. Filled with evenly matched swing games and a couple swings at the big boys.

I expect a lot of memorable games this year, even if not all of those memories are good ones. I think the majority will be!

 

[gopherbadgerman]

27th seems about right, give or take a few spots. I agree its an interesting and exciting schedule, will be fun to watch it play out. Basically could win anywhere from 5-9 games with just a few bounces in different directions.

 

[Dakota2]

27th seems about right, give or take a few spots. I agree its an interesting and exciting schedule, will be fun to watch it play out. Basically could win anywhere from 5-9 games with just a few bounces in different directions.

Yes, 27th about right if it turns out we are really 57th on offense. But if we are 9th on defense and actually turn out to be around 30th on offense, that moves us up several spots.

 

[A_Slab_of_Bacon]

Illinois way back at 43.

And poor Oregon State for finally not being garbage only to have their conference die

 

[fmlizard]

Minnesota is North Carolina's 2nd toughest opponent this year by SP+
I bet that would surprise their fans.

 

[BigTenGuy]

SP+ used to breakout a separate special teams ranking as well. Wonder what happened to that.

 

[gopherbadgerman]

Yes, 27th about right if it turns out we are really 57th on offense. But if we are 9th on defense and actually turn out to be around 30th on offense, that moves us up several spots.

Agree with that

 

[Pompous Elitist]

These preseason rankings are influenced by last year’s season-end rankings, returning production, recruiting. I wonder how much the massive roster churn across football will affect its predictive ability early on. Nobody knows nothing right now.

 

[Gophers7NatTitlesBadgers0]

I guess playing in the SEC entitles you to a top 10 SOS despite playing three powder puff non-conference opponents for most of these teams!

 

[GopherTheJugular]

I guess playing in the SEC entitles you to a top 10 SOS despite playing three powder puff non-conference opponents for most of these teams!

Sigh. Here are some of those "powder puff" teams you are referring to:

Texas
BYU
Cal (ok turd now but who knows when game was scheduled?, still P5 for now)
Utah
Florida State
Louisville
Florida State (listed twice as 2 SEC teams are taking them on)
Arizona is a weak P5 team, but still P5
Kansas State
Tulane (ranked #24)
North Carolina
Clemson
Virginia is P5
Miami
Wake Forest is P5

Sure, there are gimme games too, but every conference has those.

 

[swingman]

These preseason rankings are influenced by last year’s season-end rankings, returning production, recruiting. I wonder how much the massive roster churn across football will affect its predictive ability early on. Nobody knows nothing right now.

Fleck knows something.

The way he is talking tells you he knows he has a good hand.

And, the way he is acting, in not showing BTN or the public anything and running the most basic open practices possible, tells you he doesn't want to show his hand.

Returning production metric for our offense does not give full credit for a lot.

Metrics know about the production BSF brings and everyone knows Ersery and Quinn Carroll have NFL scouts watching. Some people realize how good Daniel Jackson was late-season.

But PJ knows AK is an Ace, Tyler is an Ace, Spencer and Crooms are Aces. Taylor and Evans are face cards. Kesich is a face card.

PJ needs longer sleeves on his hoodie to hide all the cards he is going to be laying on the table.

 

[Crosby]

Fleck knows something.

The way he is talking tells you he knows he has a good hand.

And, the way he is acting, in not showing BTN or the public anything and running the most basic open practices possible, tells you he doesn't want to show his hand.

Returning production metric for our offense does not give full credit for a lot.

Metrics know about the production BSF brings and everyone knows Ersery and Quinn Carroll have NFL scouts watching. Some people realize how good Daniel Jackson was late-season.

But PJ knows AK is an Ace, Tyler is an Ace, Spencer and Crooms are Aces. Taylor and Evans are face cards. Kesich is a face card.

PJ needs longer sleeves on his hoodie to hide all the cards he is going to be laying on the table.

I hope this is right. I think avoiding the injury big this year will be a huge factor. I just can't shake the feeling of getting so excited for us to play Ohio State a few years ago in the home opener, with one of the best backs in the country. I could feel an upset coming until I saw the video replay of an achilles tendon rolling up the back of Mo's leg. Boom. Total deflation. Then seeing CRAB go down last year very early too. Not to be a forecaster of doom and gloom... we just really need to catch a break on the injury bug thing.

 

[Dakota2]

Fleck knows something.

The way he is talking tells you he knows he has a good hand.

And, the way he is acting, in not showing BTN or the public anything and running the most basic open practices possible, tells you he doesn't want to show his hand.

Returning production metric for our offense does not give full credit for a lot.

Metrics know about the production BSF brings and everyone knows Ersery and Quinn Carroll have NFL scouts watching. Some people realize how good Daniel Jackson was late-season.

But PJ knows AK is an Ace, Tyler is an Ace, Spencer and Crooms are Aces. Taylor and Evans are face cards. Kesich is a face card.

PJ needs longer sleeves on his hoodie to hide all the cards he is going to be laying on the table.

Kesich has been a face card simply by taking away any returns on kickoffs. If he now proves to be an accurate FG kicker too, he will qualify as a pair of aces.

 

[Dakota2]

I hope this is right. I think avoiding the injury big this year will be a huge factor. I just can't shake the feeling of getting so excited for us to play Ohio State a few years ago in the home opener, with one of the best backs in the country. I could feel an upset coming until I saw the video replay of an achilles tendon rolling up the back of Mo's leg. Boom. Total deflation. Then seeing CRAB go down last year very early too. Not to be a forecaster of doom and gloom... we just really need to catch a break on the injury bug thing.

Can’t control injuries. Always part of the game. The only antidote is quality depth everywhere in the lineup. We are getting close to that.

 

[hello-world]

SP+ used to breakout a separate special teams ranking as well. Wonder what happened to that.

Still does, just doesn't really matter to the overall score.

Minnesota (#27) this year plays:
#2 (road)
#3 (home)
#19 (home)
#22 (road)
#25 (road)

And this is what people mean when they say that the Gophers could be a better team than last year and win 7 games.

 

[hello-world]

The improvement that should be made to SP+ is that it should factor in how a coach/school has under/over achieved their players’ ratings in the past. If Texas historically recruits in the 5-10 range and on field results are in the 30-40 range… why keep them top 10 to start every year? Same with Nebraska, Tennessee, etc.

This is factored in using a regression of recent results, etc.

 

[Crosby]

Can’t control injuries. Always part of the game. The only antidote is quality depth everywhere in the lineup. We are getting close to that.

Agreed. Just asking for a little luck this year.

 

[fmlizard]

Sigh. Here are some of those "powder puff" teams you are referring to:

Texas
BYU
Cal (ok turd now but who knows when game was scheduled?, still P5 for now)
Utah
Florida State
Louisville
Florida State (listed twice as 2 SEC teams are taking them on)
Arizona is a weak P5 team, but still P5
Kansas State
Tulane (ranked #24)
North Carolina
Clemson
Virginia is P5
Miami
Wake Forest is P5

Sure, there are gimme games too, but every conference has those.

Agreed, most SEC teams play at least one P5 non-conference game. A more direct comparison would be to take all of the P5 non-conference games the Big Ten plays, and then list the 14 member schools of the Big Ten.

This represents that week in mid-November where the Big Ten is all playing Big Ten teams and the SEC is playing teams like Chattanooga and Alcorn State the week before rivalry week. 9 conference games vs 8.

 

[Gophers7NatTitlesBadgers0]

Sigh. Here are some of those "powder puff" teams you are referring to:

Texas
BYU
Cal (ok turd now but who knows when game was scheduled?, still P5 for now)
Utah
Florida State
Louisville
Florida State (listed twice as 2 SEC teams are taking them on)
Arizona is a weak P5 team, but still P5
Kansas State
Tulane (ranked #24)
North Carolina
Clemson
Virginia is P5
Miami
Wake Forest is P5

Sure, there are gimme games too, but every conference has those.

Alabama=MTSU, USF, Chattanooga
ATM=NM, LA-Monroe, Abilene Christian
Auburn=UMass, Samford, NMSt (and Cal)
Arkansas=WCarolina, Kent, FIU
Missouri= SoDak, MTSU, Memphis (decent G5 but should win easily)

Any school outside the SEC with those schedules would be tough to crack the top 50.

Ole Miss does have Tulane to go with Mercer and LA-Monroe. Still a G5 and hard to say if they're any good.

Kudos to Florida and SCarolina for their schedules and deserve the top two spots!

Let me know when SEC schools decide to schedule 10 quality opponents each year and I might change my mind!

 

[Dakota2]

Agreed. Just asking for a little luck this year.

Oddly enough, there is once and awhile good luck in next man up. Mo’s freshman season being an example.

 

[Pompous Elitist]

Fleck knows something.

The way he is talking tells you he knows he has a good hand.

And, the way he is acting, in not showing BTN or the public anything and running the most basic open practices possible, tells you he doesn't want to show his hand.

Returning production metric for our offense does not give full credit for a lot.

Metrics know about the production BSF brings and everyone knows Ersery and Quinn Carroll have NFL scouts watching. Some people realize how good Daniel Jackson was late-season.

But PJ knows AK is an Ace, Tyler is an Ace, Spencer and Crooms are Aces. Taylor and Evans are face cards. Kesich is a face card.

PJ needs longer sleeves on his hoodie to hide all the cards he is going to be laying on the table.

Just meant the projections are even less certain than a normal preseason due to higher roster turnover. There is a solid chance the offense could be better than last year. But, it’s the ultimate team game. One guy messes up, could lead to a hit on AK, injury or strip sack and change the outcome of the game. Special teams have been treated as a place to “lay up” rather than as a plus factor or maybe to remove the risk of a minus factor.

I have no idea what to expect out of this team. That’s part of what makes it interesting and fun for me but we all have our own approach or POV. For example, there may be some more athletic options this year for returners.

 

[Dakota2]

Just meant the projections are even less certain than a normal preseason due to higher roster turnover. There is a solid chance the offense could be better than last year. But, it’s the ultimate team game. One guy messes up, could lead to a hit on AK, injury or strip sack and change the outcome of the game. Special teams have been treated as a place to “lay up” rather than as a plus factor or maybe to remove the risk of a minus factor.

I have no idea what to expect out of this team. That’s part of what makes it interesting and fun for me but we all have our own approach or POV. For example, there may be some more athletic options this year for returners.

Fleck moved beyond laying up on kick returns last year. I expect more of that this season.