Final Big Ten Preseason Projection

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SelectionSunday

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The Big Ten non-conference slate is now over. Final predictions:

1. Wisconsin 16-2
T-2. Illinois 12-6
T-2. Michigan State 12-6
T-2. Ohio State 12-6
5. Maryland 11-7
T-6. Indiana 10-8
T-6. Gophers 10-8
T-8. Iowa 9-9
T-8. Michigan 9-9
10. Penn State 7-11
T-11. Nebraska 6-12
T-11. Purdue 6-12
13. Northwestern 4-14
14. Rutgers 2-16
 

In other words, you see another stress-filled month leading up to selection sunday, as we land firmly on the bubble once again...

:cry:
 

I really disagree with the notion that Wisconsin is head and shoulders ahead of everyone else in the Big Ten, as a 4-game margin would suggest. Their guard play is average for a team that is supposed to lap the conference field according to the media, and let's be honest the Big Ten isn't filled with crap teams so when they inevitably have off nights shooting against a team that is playing them tough, UW can lose some games. Bo Ryan's teams have lost at least five conference games in each of the past six seasons, which is a big part of why they have failed to win a conference title in any of those seasons. They do a great job of punking teams at the Kohl Center, except occasionally when they aren't as focused and instead lay an egg and lose to a Purdue or Northwestern. Honestly I do not believe Wisconsin's play this season has been 4 games better than their top competitors in the B1G - while Duke is good, a convincing home loss to the Blue Devils was not indicative of a team primed to dominate the B1G. Maybe they will win it, but this narrative that UW is by far the best team in the league is off the mark. It seems like most every year the media tries to latch onto a team and proclaim them the Big Ten favorite (especially if they are coming off a F4 appearance) and they will stick with it to the point of ignoring other teams that are playing well. Granted there are only about 4 or 5 Big Ten teams that I think could beat them on a typical day for UW (and yes I'm including road games because they will have 9 of them), but also with the reality that UW won't always play their best that's enough to say they're not going to run away with the league title.
 


On paper, it appears the Badgers got a favorable schedule. Play Illinois, Indiana, Maryland, Michigan, MSU, and OSU once each. That certainly won't hurt their cause.
 


I was going to make a long post about expectations but thought better of it, maybe this is the place to spark some of those conversations.

What are you're expectations for the style/pace of play we play during B1G 10 ball? I'm a little apprehensive that when forced into a half court game, which I would suspect to be the case against the better half of the B1G schedule, we will struggle to score. I'm also fearful that the teams with quality guard play and or good coaching we will struggle to force 10+ turnovers or get a uptempo style game that we need to be successful. Purdue won't be a great barameter as to how successful we will be at dictating pace as they are one of the weaker guard teams in the B1G. I'm very curious as to how much we can speed games up in conference play. If we do get the game to speed up, will it be to our advantage or will we revert back to the turnover happy team we saw last year and early this year?
 

SelectionSunday said:
The Big Ten non-conference slate is now over. Final predictions:

1. Wisconsin 16-2
T-2. Illinois 12-6
T-2. Michigan State 12-6
T-2. Ohio State 12-6
5. Maryland 11-7
T-6. Indiana 10-8
T-6. Gophers 10-8
T-8. Iowa 9-9
T-8. Michigan 9-9
10. Penn State 7-11
T-11. Nebraska 6-12
T-11. Purdue 6-12
13. Northwestern 4-14
14. Rutgers 2-16
Click to expand...

I take it PSU is no longer making the big dance?
 


It certainly would be nice to see the football and basketball teams break their dubious streaks of no winning conference seasons in the same year. I really think that if this team plays to its potential, they should get it done. No excuses this year.
 



SelectionSunday said:
On paper, it appears the Badgers got a favorable schedule. Play Illinois, Indiana, Maryland, Michigan, MSU, and OSU once each. That certainly won't hurt their cause.
Click to expand...

I hear UW fans say they have a favorable conference schedule EVERY YEAR. And while it is slightly easier than it might have been (no game at MSU is the main positive for them this year, also no game at IU is good for them), the point stands that the trend is Bo's team will lose at least 5 conference games. It might take them a little while to get their first conference loss with the way their schedule opens up with a relatively easy stretch for almost a month. But they could lose at Maryland, at OSU, at Minnesota, even potentially at Penn State, at Nebraska, at Iowa because their team tends to not play their A game every time on the road. I'm not saying they're going to lose all these games but I'd guess they will lose 4 or 5 total. It's possible that teams like Indiana and Michigan St can come in and stun them at the Kohl Center, it doesn't happen often but typically they lose a home conference game at some point.

I think the top-4 in the Big Ten this year are UW, OSU, Maryland and MSU. With the larger quantity of teams in the B1G restricting the two-plays to new lows, it's going to be hard for any one of those teams to pile up the games against top-4 teams, I think all of them you could say have their "good" misses in terms of potential tough games in the conference schedule. In other words, you could look at the conference schedules of teams like Maryland, MSU and OSU and say the same things about how they don't have two games against other top teams therefore their schedule gives them an advantage. Maybe the Big Ten is a bit weaker this year than it has been, which could lead to only a few losses for UW, but the dilution of the number of games these teams have against the other top B1G teams will help other teams lose fewer games as well.
 

Friendly wager OSUfan, let's say $10. I'll set the over-under at 2.5 for the number of games by which Wisconsin wins the Big Ten. I'll take the opposite of what you take. We on?
 

Illinois 12-6? Ooooh boy. Just don't care for them.

Go Buckeyes! Take the B1G!
 

Curious as to what you see in Illinois this year. I liked them as a sleeper coming in to this year based on their strong defense play towards the end of last conference season. This year, however, the Illini has lost to Oregon, Villanova, and Miami, while barely squeaking by Missouri. They do have a nice win over Baylor, but that's really the only performance that jumps out.
 



Illinois

Pretty much the same argument could be made for MSU, OSU, and the Gophers? Who have they beaten? They all have one decent win and that's about it. Just think it's a real crapshoot after Bucky. 2nd could go to any number of teams.
 

1. Wisconsin
2. Michigan State
3. Iowa
4. Maryland
5. Minnesota
6. Indiana
7. Ohio State
8. Illinois
9. Nebraska
10. Michigan
11. Penn State
12. Purdue
13. Northwestern
14. Rutgers
 

OSUfan said:
I hear UW fans say they have a favorable conference schedule EVERY YEAR. And while it is slightly easier than it might have been (no game at MSU is the main positive for them this year, also no game at IU is good for them), the point stands that the trend is Bo's team will lose at least 5 conference games. It might take them a little while to get their first conference loss with the way their schedule opens up with a relatively easy stretch for almost a month. But they could lose at Maryland, at OSU, at Minnesota, even potentially at Penn State, at Nebraska, at Iowa because their team tends to not play their A game every time on the road. I'm not saying they're going to lose all these games but I'd guess they will lose 4 or 5 total. It's possible that teams like Indiana and Michigan St can come in and stun them at the Kohl Center, it doesn't happen often but typically they lose a home conference game at some point.

I think the top-4 in the Big Ten this year are UW, OSU, Maryland and MSU. With the larger quantity of teams in the B1G restricting the two-plays to new lows, it's going to be hard for any one of those teams to pile up the games against top-4 teams, I think all of them you could say have their "good" misses in terms of potential tough games in the conference schedule. In other words, you could look at the conference schedules of teams like Maryland, MSU and OSU and say the same things about how they don't have two games against other top teams therefore their schedule gives them an advantage. Maybe the Big Ten is a bit weaker this year than it has been, which could lead to only a few losses for UW, but the dilution of the number of games these teams have against the other top B1G teams will help other teams lose fewer games as well.
Click to expand...

I couldn't disagree more with you, as a fan of the Gophers it is hard for me to say it but this Wisconsin team is a complete team, I can't find a single weakness with them
 

GopherHoopsFan said:
I couldn't disagree more with you, as a fan of the Gophers it is hard for me to say it but this Wisconsin team is a complete team, I can't find a single weakness with them
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streaky shooting. Mark my words, they will lose a couple games against athletic teams because they cannot knock down an outside shot. They have 3 guys who can create for themselves, Dekker, Hayes and Kaminsky. Dekker is Jeckyl and Hyde, Hayes is quite consistent but can get into foul trouble, and Kaminsky is streaky from the outside and has been shutdown before.

Not saying they are paper champions, as Wisconsin can and has won MANY games where they weren't shooting well, they have a fantastic system. However, they could have, and have always in the past, run into situations where they have gone cold shooting and athletic teams with good coaching can stop their system. If the system is stopped and Dekker doesn't take over or Kaminsky is overmatched in the post or Hayes is in foul trouble, upset special.

That's their "weakness" they aren't perfect ;)
 

SelectionSunday said:
Friendly wager OSUfan, let's say $10. I'll set the over-under at 2.5 for the number of games by which Wisconsin wins the Big Ten. I'll take the opposite of what you take. We on?
Click to expand...

If I'm OSUfan I take the under in a heartbeat. I'd grant that it could be fair to make an even money bet on whether Wisconsin wins the conference (which is pretty impressive, saying that one team is as likely to win the conference as the other 13 teams combined). But I don't think I'd be willing to take the 2.5, you factor in that every team seems to drop a few stinkers every year, they still have to play half their games on the road in the B1G, there are lots of teams on that second tier who could get hot and make it competitive, I think someone finishes within 2 games of Wisconsin. Plus, while its Wisconsin's season to lose, they could end up not being as good as people think they will be and someone else could certainly win it (talented teams have imploded before).
 

All good points. Injuries can always be a factor, too.

If Wisconsin goes 15-3, think there's a decent chance 2nd will be no better than 12-6. If they're worse than 15-3, I'm screwed. Pretty much banking on the rest of the league beating each other up while the Badgers go (relatively) unscathed. Now if the Badgers go and lose to Penn State tomorrow. ...
 

OSUfan said:
I really disagree with the notion that Wisconsin is head and shoulders ahead of everyone else in the Big Ten, as a 4-game margin would suggest. Their guard play is average for a team that is supposed to lap the conference field according to the media, and let's be honest the Big Ten isn't filled with crap teams so when they inevitably have off nights shooting against a team that is playing them tough, UW can lose some games. Bo Ryan's teams have lost at least five conference games in each of the past six seasons, which is a big part of why they have failed to win a conference title in any of those seasons.
Click to expand...

OK, so Ryan hasn't won a conference title in a dozen years. So what? The Republicans went over forty years without having a majority in the US House but they've had one all but four years since 1994. If you wait long enough, things change. Ryan never had a team as good as this one either.

Yes, they can be vulnerable when they have poorer shooting nights, but that's where the defense comes in - ranked 4th nationally. They'll lose some conference games but I'm betting not many and they may not go as far in the tournament as they did last year.

Sounds like you are trying to convince yourself not to believe your lying eyes.
 

SelectionSunday said:
The Big Ten non-conference slate is now over. Final predictions:

1. Wisconsin 16-2
T-2. Illinois 12-6
T-2. Michigan State 12-6
T-2. Ohio State 12-6
5. Maryland 11-7
T-6. Indiana 10-8
T-6. Gophers 10-8
T-8. Iowa 9-9
T-8. Michigan 9-9
10. Penn State 7-11
T-11. Nebraska 6-12
T-11. Purdue 6-12
13. Northwestern 4-14
14. Rutgers 2-16
Click to expand...

I would say your Wisconsin projection is about right although they might lose 3. I think you're a bit overly bullish on Mich State. Contrary to the popular notion, Michigan State is not "always" a title contender in the conference. They've had their off years (.500 conference records in 2005-06, 2006-07, and 2010-11). This year could be another one.

I think the evidence from pre-conference indicates pretty clearly that Michigan has real issues. A 7-5 record in non-conference with two losses to lowly teams and a 27 point loss to Arizona (a good team for sure but one that has played its quality opponents pretty closely) seldom points to a competitive conference record.

I think Illinois is good enough to make the tournament, perhaps good enough to win 11 conference games, but maybe not good enough to win 12.

I like your predictions for the bottom of the conference although I think there is a chance that Penn State finishes above Michigan.
 

cjbfbp said:
I would say your Wisconsin projection is about right although they might lose 3. I think you're a bit overly bullish on Mich State. Contrary to the popular notion, Michigan State is not "always" a title contender in the conference. They've had their off years (.500 conference records in 2005-06, 2006-07, and 2010-11). This year could be another one.

I think the evidence from pre-conference indicates pretty clearly that Michigan has real issues. A 7-5 record in non-conference with two losses to lowly teams and a 27 point loss to Arizona (a good team for sure but one that has played its quality opponents pretty closely) seldom points to a competitive conference record.

I think Illinois is good enough to make the tournament, perhaps good enough to win 11 conference games, but maybe not good enough to win 12.

I like your predictions for the bottom of the conference although I think there is a chance that Penn State finishes above Michigan.
Click to expand...

I've never understood the love for Caris LaVert... Seems to be a good scorer but his slight frame and inconsistency just didn't make me thing 1st team big ten, ever.
 

Winasota Gopher said:
streaky shooting. Mark my words, they will lose a couple games against athletic teams because they cannot knock down an outside shot. They have 3 guys who can create for themselves, Dekker, Hayes and Kaminsky. Dekker is Jeckyl and Hyde, Hayes is quite consistent but can get into foul trouble, and Kaminsky is streaky from the outside and has been shutdown before.

Not saying they are paper champions, as Wisconsin can and has won MANY games where they weren't shooting well, they have a fantastic system. However, they could have, and have always in the past, run into situations where they have gone cold shooting and athletic teams with good coaching can stop their system. If the system is stopped and Dekker doesn't take over or Kaminsky is overmatched in the post or Hayes is in foul trouble, upset special.

That's their "weakness" they aren't perfect ;)
Click to expand...

I think all teams are vulnerable when they don't shoot the ball well.

The Badgers usually destroy athletic teams with bad coaching. I am going to put them on alert for athletic teams with good coaching.

The system is a lot of really good basketball players that play really good team basketball on both ends of the court. If they play a team with a lot of really good basketball players that plays better than they do, they surely can lose. Their margin of error is very high this year because there are very few teams more talented than they are.

However, nothing is a given. You still have to go out and play the games.

I don't think picking them to win the conference is exactly going out on a limb.
 

GVBadger said:
I think all teams are vulnerable when they don't shoot the ball well.

The Badgers usually destroy athletic teams with bad coaching. I am going to put them on alert for athletic teams with good coaching.

The system is a lot of really good basketball players that play really good team basketball on both ends of the court. If they play a team with a lot of really good basketball players that plays better than they do, they surely can lose. Their margin of error is very high this year because there are very few teams more talented than they are.

However, nothing is a given. You still have to go out and play the games.

I don't think picking them to win the conference is exactly going out on a limb.
Click to expand...

I missed a comma. My comment was mostly tongue in cheek, there weakness is they aren't perfect.
 

Surprised you think that highly of Illinois. Will be surprised if they or Indiana finish ahead of us.

SelectionSunday said:
The Big Ten non-conference slate is now over. Final predictions:

1. Wisconsin 16-2
T-2. Illinois 12-6
T-2. Michigan State 12-6
T-2. Ohio State 12-6
5. Maryland 11-7
T-6. Indiana 10-8
T-6. Gophers 10-8
T-8. Iowa 9-9
T-8. Michigan 9-9
10. Penn State 7-11
T-11. Nebraska 6-12
T-11. Purdue 6-12
13. Northwestern 4-14
14. Rutgers 2-16
Click to expand...
 

OSUfan said:
I think the top-4 in the Big Ten this year are UW, OSU, Maryland and MSU.
Click to expand...

You might want to drop OSU out of your top 4. I like the Gophers chances better than that mess I saw play in Columbus last night. And Iowa proved they are clearly better than OSU.
 

As I've said many times, and said about our Gophers already this year.

You're not as good as you are when you are at your best, and you're not as bad as you are when you are at your worst.

OSU will be fine, so will MSU.
 

That was certainly a short honeymoon for Nebraska. They were the darling of the BTN writers' poll and I remember thinking, really, 5th in the conference?
 

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