Filling out nonconference sked: a mythical & realistic solution

[SelectionSunday]

Going on the assumption North Dakota State and South Dakota State are indeed part of the Gophers' nonconference schedule along with confirmees Bucknell, USC & Virginia Tech, and assuming there will be 10 home games (according to the ticket office), that leaves 5 Gopher home games yet to be determined.

Most all of us would like to see nothing but powerhouses visiting The Barn, but that's not going to happen. That got me to thinking, what opponents -- realistically -- would be good fits to complete the Gophers' 2011-12 nonconference schedule? Opponents that would make the Gophers' slate interesting & palatable enough to keep us interested in November and December, yet allow for plenty of wins and come tournament time would be viewed by the Selection Committee (if by chance we land on our customary spot on the bubble) as a solid schedule and one void of ridicule by the pundits.

I came up with a combination of: (A) cupcakes that finished no worse than #300 in the RPI last season; (B) decent mid-majors; (C) about half the schedule includes teams that finished or should finish in the top 100 of the RPI; (D) teams expected to do well in small conferences & who may end up earning an automatic bid; and (E) opponents with a Minnesota connection on their roster.

Keeping in mind, ideally the average RPI of the Gophers' opponents should fall somewhere in the 130-150 range. Last year the average RPI of Gopher nonconference opponents was 153.25. Here's what I came up with, from worst RPI (last season's RPI in parentheses) to best.

1. Florida Gulf Coast (#282) -- FGCU of the Atlantic Sun is eligible for postseason play for the first time this season. The Eagles have played at least one B1G team on the road in each of the last four seasons. A cupcake, but at least FGCU players have the NCAA Tournament carrot in front of them this season.

2. Stony Brook (#240) -- A cupcake, yes, but the Seawolves will be one of the favorites in America East. RPI is likely to improve this season. Automatic bid possibility.

3. North Dakota State (#238) -- A cupcake, but regional interest with a lot of Minnesota kids.

4. South Dakota State (#183) -- Also regional & should be a Gopher win, but G Nate Wolters makes the Jackrabbits somewhat interesting.

5. Buffalo (#166) -- From here on the games would get a little more interesting. This should be a solid mid-major. The Bulls could be a sleeper in the MAC, and one of their feature players will be senior guard Zach Filzen of Northfield. Filzen led the Bulls in points per game (15.1) and 3-point percentage (41.2).

6. vs. Texas Tech (#165) -- Projected quarterfinal opponent @ Old Spice Classic.

7. FAU (#114) -- Who, who. ... are these guys? Another solid mid-major. Former St. John's coach Mike Jarvis and his Owls will be one of the favorites in the Sun Belt. Automatic bid possibility.

8. Bucknell (#79) -- The Bison will be the unquestioned Patriot League favorite, and will be led by Roseville's Mike Muscala (14.9 ppg, 7.3 rpg). Automatic bid possibility.

9. USC (#67) -- Kevin O'Neill is an odd duck and a bit of a loose cannon, but this guy can coach. He'll have a stellar backcourt in Jio Fontan & Maurice Jones.

10. Virginia Tech (#62) -- Two of the classic "bubble programs" go noggin to noggin. Would expect this game to be tightly contested.

11. Harvard (#35) -- Tommy Amaker would be making his first appearance at Williams Arena since his ouster at Michigan. Don't let the Ivy League name fool you, this would be a tough game for the Gophers. The Crimson return every single player from last year's Ivy co-champs. Could be similar to Cornell's Sweet 16 squad two seasons ago?

Average RPI of Nonconference Opponents: 148.272 -- Presumably this number will dip after the Gophers' two (unknown) opponents in the Old Spice Classic are factored in.

**Generally speaking, every season I'm hoping the Gophers end up playing roughly 40-50% of their nonconference games vs. opponents that finish in the top 100 of the RPI. This year that would be 6 (of 13). Last season only 2 (North Carolina & West Virginia) of the Gophers' 12 nonconference opponents finished in the top 100, but a couple weren't far off, NCAA qualifiers Akron (#107) and Wofford (#109).

 

[tjgopher]

SS -

Doing some digging on my speculation about playing Indiana State or Fairfield as part of an exempt game at the Barn and found this post on the Fairfield fan page. Confirms my suspicion, as they claim Minnesota will host Fairfield in an exempt game, even though both will still be playing in Orlando at the Old Spice. Presumedly, they will be on opposite sides of the bracket. Actually, vs. Fairfield is not a bad game (#97 RPI).

In digging that up, I also accidentally came across this post on a St. Peter's message board that suggests we are hosting them, too. Actually, that is not a bad game (#92 RPI), either, albeit, not all that attention-grabbing.

 

[SelectionSunday]

Thanks TJ. Both those posts sounds like they're pretty legit. As you pointed out, now we know Fairfield is likely to be in the opposite bracket of the Gophers in Orlando.

Fairfield, especially, is a good addition to the schedule. Not a cupcake at all. Last year's regular-season MAAC champs and will be one of the favorites along with Iona this season. Return 5 of their top 8 scorers, including top 2. The Chicago kid Needham (14.1 ppg) is a really good guard, and their second-leading scorer (Olander) averaged over 10 ppg and 2 blocks per game. Perhaps an interesting & challenging matchup for our bigs, similar to Rossiter (Siena) last season?

Always nice to schedule NCAA qualifiers from the previous season (St. Peter's, MAAC tourney champs). Makes the chedule sound a little better, but the Peacocks lose a lot from their NCAA squad. ... their their top 4 scorers. I don't expect much of a contest in that one.

I'll add both to the nonconference schedule update. Let me know if you find anything else. Looks like we're down to 3 missing games.