Field of 68 Projection

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SelectionSunday

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February has arrived, so let's start it with a NCAA Tournament projection. We're 6 weeks away from Selection Sunday.

RPI noted in parentheses.

FIELD of 68 (February 1)
America East (1): Albany (147)

American (4): SMU (22), Cincinnati (26), Temple (43), Tulsa (44)

ACC (7): Virginia (3), Duke (5), North Carolina (10), Louisville (13), Notre Dame (29), NC State (47), Miami (49)

Atlantic Sun (1): North Florida (201)

Atlantic 10 (2): VCU (9), Dayton (34)

Big East (6); Villanova (6), Butler (15), Georgetown (19), Providence (23), Xavier (27), Seton Hall (37)

Big Sky (1): Sacramento State (146)

Big South (1): High Point (97)

Big Ten (6): Wisconsin (8), Maryland (17), Ohio State (35), Indiana (36), Michigan State (39), Iowa (53)

Big XII (7): Kansas (1), Iowa State (14), Baylor (16), West Virginia (20), Oklahoma (21), Texas (32), Oklahoma State (42)

Big West (1): UC-Davis (99)

Colonial (1): William & Mary (72)

Conference USA (2): Old Dominion (38), Louisiana Tech (98)

Horizon (1): Valparaiso (87)

Ivy (1): Yale (58)

Metro Atlantic (1): Iona (55)

MAC (1): Kent State (106)

MEAC (1): NCCU (92)

Missouri Valley (2): Wichita State (12), Northern Iowa (18)

Mountain West (2): San Diego State (25), Colorado State (30)

Northeast (1): Saint Francis-NY (179)

Ohio Valley (1): Murray State (75)

Pac 12 (3): Arizona (4), Utah (11), Stanford (31)

Patriot (1): Colgate (200)

SEC (6): Kentucky (2), Arkansas (24), Georgia (28), Texas A&M (33), LSU (40), Ole Miss (46)

Southern (1): Wofford (45)

Southland (1): Stephen F. Austin (81)

SWAC (1): Texas Southern (121)

Summit (1): South Dakota State (114)

Sun Belt (1): Georgia Southern (113)

WCC (1): Gonzaga (7)

WAC (1): New Mexico State (153)
___________________________________
Last 4 In: Colorado State (30), Stanford (31), Old Dominion (38), NC State (47)

Last 4 Auto Qualifiers: New Mexico State (153), Saint Francis-NY (179), Colgate (200), North Florida (201)

First 4 Out: Tennessee (56), Illinois (64), Wyoming (80), Clemson (82)

Others Considered (9): Saint John's (50), Boise State (51), George Washington (54), UCLA (66), Oregon (68), Rhode Island (70), Syracuse (71), Michigan (73), Purdue (78)
 



Can already tell February has arrived. The pressure mounts, and the games get better.

Michigan-MSU live up to their rivalry. Great game. Sparty wins in OT, but Michigan not going away quietly despite key injuries.

Potential bubble teams Miami and Cincinnati gag away games on the road. Yep, February is here.
 

I have some doubts that 7 teams from a 10 team conference (Big 12) will be selected even if it is the nation's top conference. By the end of the season, one of those seven listed could have a fairly mediocre record. While there is a pretty decent chance that 6 teams go from the Big East (another 10 team conference), I don't think that's a lock yet.

I have doubts that they will select two teams from Conference USA.
 


For clarity, projections are based on games played up to this point. Not projecting future results.
 

SS,

I know in the past several teams with admirable records have been left out due to their team having a paltry RPI or crappy SOS. Do you have a list of some of those teams and corresponding records? Curious to see if a team with 28+ wins has ever been left out.
 

No records of that, sorry. But I can give you an example of one that could be interesting this year. Stephen F. Austin could end up 27-4 (vs. D1 opponents) if they don't win their conference tournament, with 3 of those losses vs. NCAA quality teams. ... Northern Iowa, Baylor and Xavier. Would the committee take them if their RPI is respectable (60s), if not their SOS.
 

Lunardi & Palm latest projections (Monday)

At this point Lunardi & Palm differ with me on 1 at-large (both have Saint John's). Lunardi has Saint John's, in their place I have Temple. Palm has Saint John's, while I have Old Dominion.

Lunardi Last 4 In: NC State, Old Dominion, Ole Miss, Saint John's
Palm Last 4 In: George Washington, Ole Miss, Temple, Texas A&M
My Last 4 In: Colorado State, NC State, Old Dominion, Stanford

Lunardi First 4 Out: Davidson, George Washington, Kansas State, Tennessee
Palm First 4 Out: Davidson, NC State, Old Dominion, Washington
My First 4 Out: Clemson, Illinois, Tennessee, Wyoming

Lunardi
http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/bracketology

Palm
http://www.cbssports.com/collegebasketball/bracketology
 



There's no way they'll leave the Pac 12 with 3 teams, IMO.
 

Not a lot of beef in the Pac 12 this season, and not many quality wins in the non-con, either. I'd guess 4 will be the max, but that probably requires UCLA to get red hot & not sure Bruins are capable of that.
 

SelectionSunday said:
No records of that, sorry. But I can give you an example of one that could be interesting this year. Stephen F. Austin could end up 27-4 (vs. D1 opponents) if they don't win their conference tournament, with 3 of those losses vs. NCAA quality teams. ... Northern Iowa, Baylor and Xavier. Would the committee take them if their RPI is respectable (60s), if not their SOS.
Click to expand...

Valpo is another team that may find themselves in that same boat. They have a shot of ending up 27-4 heading into their conference tourney. Say they win the first two games and lose the championship. Would the committee look past a team with an RPI in the mid 70's with a record of 29-5?
 

Wofford

Wofford is another one (currently 18-5 and #45 in the RPI), but the difference is Wofford has a couple pretty decent wins to bring to the table, @ NC State (#50) and home vs. MAAC leader Iona (#57). Don't think they can get to 27 (D1) wins, though.
 



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