Field of 68 Projection (through March 5)

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SelectionSunday

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RPI is noted in parentheses. ALL CAPS bold/italic = already earned automatic bid.

FIELD OF 68 (6 days 'til Selection Sunday)
Automatic Bids/Top Remaining Seed In Conference Tournament (32)
America East: Vermont (49)
American: SMU (17)
ACC: North Carolina (4)
Atlantic Sun: FLORIDA GULF COAST (86)
Atlantic 10: Dayton (21)
Big East: Villanova (1)
Big Sky: North Dakota (175)
Big South: WINTHROP (69)
B1G: Purdue (18)
Big XII: Kansas (2)
Big West: UC Irvine (140)
Colonial: North Carolina-Wilmington (31)
Conference USA: Middle Tennessee (37)
Horizon: Northern Kentucky (90)
Ivy: Princeton (51)
MAAC: Iona (100)
MAC: Akron (59)
MEAC: North Carolina Central (220)
Missouri Valley: WICHITA STATE (28)
Mountain West: Nevada (36)
Northeast: Mount Saint Mary's (156)
Ohio Valley: JACKSONVILLE STATE (152)
Pac 12: Oregon (8)
Patriot: Bucknell (66)
SEC: Kentucky (7)
Southern: North Carolina-Greensboro (98)
Southland: New Orleans (176)
SWAC: Texas Southern (120)
Summit: South Dakota (108)
Sun Belt: Texas-Arlington (40)
West Coast: Gonzaga (10)
WAC: Bakersfield (84)

Locks (22)
Louisville (3)
Florida (5)
Baylor (6)
Arizona (9)
Florida State (11)
Butler (12)
Cincinnati (13)
Duke (14)
UCLA (15)
Virginia (16)
Saint Mary's (19)
Minnesota (20)
West Virginia (22)
VCU (23)
Notre Dame (24)
Maryland 925)
Creighton (26)
Iowa State (27)
Arkansas (29)
South Carolina (33)
Wisconsin (38)
Michigan (47)

Strong Bubble/In The Field Now But Not Yet A Lock (7)
Oklahoma State (35)
Miami (41)
Seton Hall (43)
Virginia Tech (45)
Michigan State (48)
Providence (52)
Marquette (55)

(* denotes currently in Field of 68)

Squarely On Or Below The Bubble (15)
*Illinois State (30)
*Wake Forest (32)
*Xavier (34)
*USC (39)
Rhode Island (42)
*Vanderbilt (44)
Houston (50)
Georgia (53)
*Northwestern (54)
Cal (56)
Illinois (57)
*Kansas State (58)
BYU (63)
Iowa (72)
Syracuse (80)
____________________

Last 4 In: Illinois State (30), Wake Forest (32), Northwestern (54), Kansas State (58)

First 4 Out: Rhode Island (42), Illinois (57), Iowa (72), Syracuse (80)

Others Considered (4): Houston (50), Georgia (53), Cal (56), BYU (63)

Non-Power 6 At-Larges (4): Cincinnati (13), Saint Mary's (19), VCU (23), Illinois State (30)

BUBBLE TEAMS WITH WINS OVER AUTOMATIC QUALIFIERS
Michigan State (2): Florida Gulf Coast, vs. Wichita State
Illinois State (1): Wichita State
Oklahoma State (1): @ Wichita State

GOPHERS VS. THE PROJECTED FIELD (8-6)
Texas-Arlington (W)
Mount Saint Mary's (W)
Arkansas (W)
@ Florida State (L)
vs. Vanderbilt (W)
Michigan State (L)
@ Purdue (W)
@ Northwestern (W)
@ Michigan State (L)
Wisconsin (L)
Maryland (L)
Michigan (W)
@ Maryland (W)
@ Wisconsin (L)
 




Northwestern is not a lock yet? Would they be with a win in the BTT?
 


Northwestern

gopher7 said:
Northwestern is not a lock yet? Would they be with a win in the BTT?
Click to expand...

I don't think they are, but most everyone else thinks so.

If they win their first game in D.C. hard for me to envision any scenario where I won't select as an at-large. But if they lose. ... RPI might creep into the 60s.

Something to chew on about Wildcats? They're 1-5 vs. teams seeded above them in the B1G Tournament, including 0-3 in Evanston. Having no bad losses certainly working in their favor.
 


gopher7 said:
Northwestern is not a lock yet? Would they be with a win in the BTT?
Click to expand...

If the Committee truly ignores everything but resume, they're not. But who are we kidding. Everyone knows the history and there's about a 2% chance they get left out even if they lose the 1st game in DC IMO.
 




Nightmare scenario for Northwestern in B1G Tournament?

howeda7 said:
If the Committee truly ignores everything but resume, they're not. But who are we kidding. Everyone knows the history and there's about a 2% chance they get left out even if they lose the 1st game in DC IMO.
Click to expand...

. ... not even mentioning all the other bubble teams across the country?

Lose first game to Ohio State or Rutgers (especially if it's Rutgers).

Sparty wins its opener vs. Penn State or Nebraska to lock up a bid.

Iowa advances to at least semifinals (not a huge stretch).

Illinois (which beat Northwestern twice) beats Michigan and Purdue to get the semifinals. This one probably the least likely.

In this scenario I'd pretty much put the Wildcats behind all of Illinois, Iowa, and Michigan State in terms of quality of resume.
 

37score said:
You can't really be serious about Illinois St, can you?
2 top 100 wins?

They have 2 losses below 100.
Click to expand...

I get that. Don't like the Redbirds resume but not ruling them out yet.

The 2 losses to RPI 101+ in and of itself are not a big deal, but yes in combination with no non-conference wins of any consequence and only 2 top-100 wins, not a good look.
 

Apologies if this has been asked before, but when you're putting this together, do you speculate on seeding as well, or just who's in/out?
 

SelectionSunday said:
I get that. Don't like the Redbirds resume but not ruling them out yet.

The 2 losses to RPI 101+ in and of itself are not a big deal, but yes in combination with no non-conference wins of any consequence and only 2 top-100 wins, not a good look.
Click to expand...


My point is simply... Illinois St.... your total number of above 100 wins equals the number of below 100 losses.
 





SS, It seems you are trying to keep this thread at the top for some reason!

Why is Wake (#32) not a lock at this point?
 

Otis said:
SS, It seems you are trying to keep this thread at the top for some reason!

Why is Wake (#32) not a lock at this point?
Click to expand...

A lot of moving parts. Right now would point to 3-8 vs. top 50, only 5-10 vs. teams under consideration for the field.
 

Otis said:
SS, It seems you are trying to keep this thread at the top for some reason!

Why is Wake (#32) not a lock at this point?
Click to expand...

They are 18-12.
That's one reason.

But they are likely in right now because this bubble isn't strong. I think we say that every year now.
 

Updated (through March 6)

North Carolina-Wilmington (Colonial), Iona (MAAC), and East Tennessee State (Southern) earned automatic bids to the tournament Monday. The only others changes from yesterday? Say "ba bye" to BYU, a marginal at-large candidate anyways. The Cougars move off the Bubble Board with their humiliating 81-50 loss to Saint Mary's in the WCC semifinals. In the Summit League, #3 seed Omaha is now the top seed remaining after top seed South Dakota was knocked off by #4 seed South Dakota State.

Game of note Tuesday night for Gopher fans? Gophers non-conference opponent Mount Saint Mary's can earn the automatic bid from the Northeast Conference with a win over Saint Francis-PA (6/ESPN2). Also of note tonight, #10 Horizon League seed (last place) Milwaukee (Akeem Springs' previous school) can earn a spot in the Dance with a 12-23 record if it beats Northern Kentucky.

We're down to 21 teams vying for 14 available at-large bids.

RPI is noted in parentheses. ALL CAPS bold/italic = already earned automatic bid.

FIELD OF 68 (5 days 'til Selection Sunday)
Automatic Bids/Top Remaining Seed In Conference Tournament (32)
America East: Vermont (47)
American: SMU (18)
ACC: North Carolina (4)
Atlantic Sun: FLORIDA GULF COAST (86)
Atlantic 10: Dayton (21)
Big East: Villanova (1)
Big Sky: North Dakota (177)
Big South: WINTHROP (70)
B1G: Purdue (19)
Big XII: Kansas (2)
Big West: UC Irvine (136)
Colonial: NORTH CAROLINA-WILMINGTON (26)
Conference USA: Middle Tennessee (37)
Horizon: Northern Kentucky (89) -- vs. Milwaukee, 6 (ESPN)
Ivy: Princeton (51)
MAAC: IONA (91)
MAC: Akron (60)
MEAC: North Carolina Central (219)
Missouri Valley: WICHITA STATE (29)
Mountain West: Nevada (35)
Northeast: Mount Saint Mary's (157) -- vs. Saint Francis-PA, 6 (ESPN2)
Ohio Valley: JACKSONVILLE STATE (152)
Pac 12: Oregon (8)
Patriot: Bucknell (66)
SEC: Kentucky (7)
Southern: EAST TENNESSEE STATE (57)
Southland: New Orleans (179)
SWAC: Texas Southern (117)
Summit: Omaha (125) -- vs. South Dakota State, 8 (ESPN2)
Sun Belt: Texas-Arlington (40)
West Coast: Gonzaga (10) -- vs. Saint Mary's, 8 (ESPN)
WAC: Bakersfield (84)

Locks (22)
Louisville (3)
Florida (5)
Baylor (6)
Arizona (9)
Florida State (11)
Butler (12)
Cincinnati (13)
Duke (14)
UCLA (15)
Saint Mary's (16) -- vs. Gonzaga, 8 (ESPN)
Virginia (17)
Minnesota (20)
West Virginia (22)
VCU (23)
Maryland (24)
Notre Dame (25)
Creighton (27)
Iowa State (28)
Arkansas (30)
South Carolina (33)
Wisconsin (38)
Michigan (46)

Strong Bubblers/In With 1 Win (7)
Oklahoma State (36)
Miami (41)
Seton Hall (43)
Virginia Tech (45)
Michigan State (49)
Providence (52)
Marquette (55)

(* denotes currently in Field of 68)

Squarely On Or Below The Bubble (14)
*Illinois State (31) -- season complete
*Wake Forest (32) -- vs. Boston College, 1:30 (ESPN2)
*Xavier (34)
*USC (39)
Rhode Island (42)
*Vanderbilt (44)
Houston (50)
Georgia (53)
*Northwestern (54)
Cal (56)
Illinois (58)
*Kansas State (59)
Iowa (72)
Syracuse (80)
____________________

Last 4 In: Illinois State (31), Wake Forest (32), Northwestern (54), Kansas State (59)

First 4 Out: Rhode Island (42), Illinois (58), Iowa (72), Syracuse (80)

Others Considered (4): Houston (50), Georgia (53), Cal (56)

Non-Power 6 At-Larges (4): Cincinnati (13), Saint Mary's (16), VCU (23), Illinois State (31)

BUBBLE TEAMS WITH WINS OVER AUTOMATIC QUALIFIERS
Michigan State (2): Florida Gulf Coast, vs. Wichita State
Illinois State (1): Wichita State
Oklahoma State (1): @ Wichita State

GOPHERS VS. THE PROJECTED FIELD (8-6)
Texas-Arlington (W)
Mount Saint Mary's (W)
Arkansas (W)
@ Florida State (L)
vs. Vanderbilt (W)
Michigan State (L)
@ Purdue (W)
@ Northwestern (W)
@ Michigan State (L)
Wisconsin (L)
Maryland (L)
Michigan (W)
@ Maryland (W)
@ Wisconsin (L)
 

SS does UT Arlington have a shot at an at large if they lose in their conference championship? If they lose to say Georgia Southern or UL Laf can they get in? In that scenario the gophers would pick up another NCAA win if they get the conference champion plus UT Arlington as an at large.
 

SS, Just wanted to say thanks for your contributions on the GH! There are lots of posters with good things to say, but I always look for what you have posted. Thanks for sharing your perspective.
 

tmvander said:
SS does UT Arlington have a shot at an at large if they lose in their conference championship? If they lose to say Georgia Southern or UL Laf can they get in? In that scenario the gophers would pick up another NCAA win if they get the conference champion plus UT Arlington as an at large.
Click to expand...

Would consider UTA, but my gut says no. Saint Mary's win would have to carry them.
 

PhillyPHIRE73 said:
SS, Just wanted to say thanks for your contributions on the GH! There are lots of posters with good things to say, but I always look for what you have posted. Thanks for sharing your perspective.
Click to expand...

You're welcome. Appreciate it!
 

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