Field of 68 Projection (through Feb. 20)

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SelectionSunday

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KenPom ranking is noted in parentheses. An * denotes conference leader or, in the event of a tie, best KenPom ranking.

FIELD OF 68 (through Feb. 20)
America East (1): Vermont (68)

American (2): *SMU (17), Cincinnati (22)

ACC (9): Louisville (4), *North Carolina (6), Virginia (9), Duke (12), Florida State (19), Notre Dame (26), Miami (30), Virginia Tech (46), Georgia Tech (76)

Atlantic Sun (1): Florida Gulf Coast (112)

Atlantic 10 (2): *Dayton (33), VCU (41)

Big East (7): *Villanova (2), Creighton (23), Butler (25), Marquette (35), Xavier (36), Providence (58), Seton Hall (59)

Big Sky (1): North Dakota (174)

Big South (1): North Carolina-Asheville (99)

B1G (7): *Purdue (11), Wisconsin (16), Michigan (27), Maryland (32), Northwestern (34), Minnesota (39), Michigan State (54)

Big XII (6): West Virginia (3), *Kansas (8), Baylor (10), Oklahoma State (20), Iowa State (24), Kansas State (28)

Big West (1): UC Irvine (149)

Colonial (1): North Carolina-Wilmington (57)

Conference USA (1): Middle Tennessee (44)

Horizon (1): Valparaiso (97)

Ivy (1): Princeton (66)

Metro Atlantic (1): Monmouth (86)

MAC (1): Akron (103)

MEAC (1): NCCU (138)

Missouri Valley (2): *Wichita State (13), Illinois State (49)

Mountain West (1): Nevada (69)

Northeast (1): Mount Saint Mary's (209)

Ohio Valley (1): Belmont (81)

Pac 12 (5): Oregon (14), UCLA (18), Arizona (21), Cal (47), USC (63)

Patriot (1): Bucknell (84)

SEC (4): *Florida (5), Kentucky (7), South Carolina (29), Arkansas (50)

Southern (1): Furman (105)

Southland (1): New Orleans (179)

SWAC (1): Texas Southern (203)

Summit (1): North Dakota State (141)

Sun Belt (1): Texas-Arlington (67)

West Coast (2): *Gonzaga (1), Saint Mary's (15)

WAC (1): Bakersfield (106)


Last 4 In: Providence (58), Seton Hall (59), USC (63), Georgia Tech (76)

First 4 Out: Wake Forest (31), Tennessee (42), TCU (43), Syracuse (48)

Others Considered (7): Houston (40), Indiana (45), Georgia (51), Georgetown (52), Rhode Island (55), Vanderbilt (56), Alabama (61)

Non-Power 6 At-Larges (4): Saint Mary's (15), Cincinnati (22), VCU (41), Illinois State (49)

Gophers vs. Projected Field of 68 (6-5): Beat Texas-Arlington, beat Mount Saint Mary's, beat Arkansas, lost to Florida State, lost to Michigan State, beat Purdue, beat Northwestern, lost to Michigan State, lost to Wisconsin, lost to Maryland, beat Michigan
 

Does Northwestern miss the tourney if they don't win another game?
 


If Illinois and Northwestern both finish 9-9 who has the upper hand on getting into the dance?
 






Plinnius said:
How does it hate us?
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Kenpom has a "margin of victory" factor in there some place, or total points for vs total points against.

We win, but usually with an overtime mixed in. Don't blow many teams out.
 



upnorthkid said:
what is your projected gophs seed for now?
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6-9.
Most likely 7 or 8 RIGHT NOW. Palm has them as a 6. Lunardi, a 9, which seems at least one spot too low.

If they finish 10-6 and get a double-bye, likely a 6, maybe a 5.
 

Did Georgia Tech play themselves out of the tournament by losing to Clemson last night?

Looks like you have Marquette solidly in, but it looks like they have a pretty tough schedule the rest of the way. I'm not so sure on the Warriors.

Curious if your choice of KenPom over RPI in your projection is intuition on what the committee might do? I would put myself into the RPI category until I hear something definitively different. I at least understand the RPI. I don't understand KenPom.
 

Holy Man said:
Did Georgia Tech play themselves out of the tournament by losing to Clemson last night?

Looks like you have Marquette solidly in, but it looks like they have a pretty tough schedule the rest of the way. I'm not so sure on the Warriors.

Curious if your choice of KenPom over RPI in your projection is intuition on what the committee might do? I would put myself into the RPI category until I hear something definitively different. I at least understand the RPI. I don't understand KenPom.
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VT beat Clemson last night. GT lost to NC State, which might've pushed them out. They were right on the line and can't afford to drop games, especially at home, and especially since two of their last three are on the road at some tough places (Syracuse and Notre Dame). I think the Yellow Jackets are likely cooked, barring a run in the ACC tourney.
 

Holy Man said:
Did Georgia Tech play themselves out of the tournament by losing to Clemson last night?

Looks like you have Marquette solidly in, but it looks like they have a pretty tough schedule the rest of the way. I'm not so sure on the Warriors.

Curious if your choice of KenPom over RPI in your projection is intuition on what the committee might do? I would put myself into the RPI category until I hear something definitively different. I at least understand the RPI. I don't understand KenPom.
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I've mixed it up this year. Some weeks I've used KenPom, others I've used RPI. Just something different. The final projection I'll use RPI.
 



Marquette not solidly in. Georgia Tech is pretty much toast after losing to NC State.
 

BarnBoy said:
They lost tonight! A good start.
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While Northwestern losing helps the Gophers in terms of seeding for the BTT, I actually hope they win a few games to stay in the RPI Top 50 as that is one of the marquee road/neutral wins.

Vandy is also hanging in.
 

He's starting to like Nevada.....Big game tonight for the Wolfpack against Boise State at home.
Sold out. My good buddy in Vegas says the Wolfpack are the talk of the town, with UNLV being an afterthought. The game tonight is for first place in the Mountain West.
 

ruppertflywheel said:
He's starting to like Nevada.....Big game tonight for the Wolfpack against Boise State at home.
Sold out. My good buddy in Vegas says the Wolfpack are the talk of the town, with UNLV being an afterthought. The game tonight is for first place in the Mountain West.
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TV? CBSSPORTS?
 

Ope3 said:
While Northwestern losing helps the Gophers in terms of seeding for the BTT, I actually hope they win a few games to stay in the RPI Top 50 as that is one of the marquee road/neutral wins.

Vandy is also hanging in.
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I don't know how much it matters.
When evaluating bubble teams, I think the committee goes over those details a lot more. But when your RPI is top 20 and you're getting votes in the polls, you are pretty sure going to be seeded somewhere along your poll number and RPI. (25 RPI +30th in polls = seeding around 6-8,)

They aren't going to spend a lot of time determining if Minnesota should be above Xavier, South Carolina, or SMU by comparing record against Top 50 teams. They'll just take them in the order of polls or their index and move on unless something stands out. (one wins a conference tourney or key player getting injured).
 

AP Polls

37score said:
I don't know how much it matters.
When evaluating bubble teams, I think the committee goes over those details a lot more. But when your RPI is top 20 and you're getting votes in the polls, you are pretty sure going to be seeded somewhere along your poll number and RPI. (25 RPI +30th in polls = seeding around 6-8,)

They aren't going to spend a lot of time determining if Minnesota should be above Xavier, South Carolina, or SMU by comparing record against Top 50 teams. They'll just take them in the order of polls or their index and move on unless something stands out. (one wins a conference tourney or key player getting injured).
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I am confident that the Cmte does not looks at team's AP poll rankings at all for consideration in the field or seeding. SMU was ranked and did not even get in at all just a few years ago (2014).
 

Ope3 said:
I am confident that the Cmte does not looks at team's AP poll rankings at all for consideration in the field or seeding. SMU was ranked and did not even get in at all just a few years ago (2014).
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Okay, let me explain the caveats.

The top 25-30 seeded teams usually closely mirror the polls and RPI of teams. (Take RPI and poll number and average them).


SMU Caveats being...

1. You were not in a Big 6 conference.
2. SOS had a weak SOS and a low RPI.

SMU was RPI rank of 45/53 that year at the point of tourney selection with a strength of schedule of 101.
If you take their 25th ranking and add 53, you get 78. Divide by two.. that's 39. There are 36-37 at large bids, so 39 wasn't good enough.
 


37score said:
Kenpom has a "margin of victory" factor in there some place, or total points for vs total points against.

We win, but usually with an overtime mixed in. Don't blow many teams out.
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And it's hard to blow people out when you almost never shoot near 50% or better as a team. Most Big Ten games the Gophers only shoot between 37% and 43%.

The best game the gophers had in Big Ten play was at Purdue when they shot 49%. Their shooting has to significantly improve this off-season if this team wants to seriously challenge for a top tier finish next year.
 

Lunardi has moved us up to a 7 seed along with Maryland.
 


Lunardi also Oklahoma st as a 6 seed. Don't think their resume is better than gophers
 


Ope3 said:
I am confident that the Cmte does not looks at team's AP poll rankings at all for consideration in the field or seeding. SMU was ranked and did not even get in at all just a few years ago (2014).
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I am not saying they do, but I am saying there is a pretty strong correlation.
 

Gopherholefan said:
Lunardi also Oklahoma st as a 6 seed. Don't think their resume is better than gophers
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Tim1406 said:
An argument can be made that we have a better resume than any of his 6 seeds.
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I'm going to copy paste my post from a different thread. No doubt we have a better resume than Ok State (its really a joke lunardi has them on the 6 line). We also probably have a better resume than St. Mary's, SMU, Cincinnati, arguably better than Notre Dame and Wisconsin. The gophers should be a 5 seed if the tournament started tomorrow.

Saint Mary's, 6 Seed in South region
RPI 16
SOS 67
24-3 overall
1-2 against RPI 1-25 (win @Dayton, losses against Gonzaga, @Gonzaga)
2-3 against RPI 1-50 (wins against Nevada, loss to UT Arlington)
7-3 against RPI 1-100
Total RPI of best 3 wins is 135
Best win is @Dayton
worst loss is to UT Arlington

SMU, 5 Seed in South region
RPI 19
SOS 101
Overall 24-4
1-3 vs RPI 1-50 (win against Cincinatti, losses against Michigan, @USC, @Cincinatti)
84 vs RPI 1-100
Total RPI of best 3 wins is 129
Best win - Cincinatti
Worst loss - Michigan

Virginia, 5 Seed in West region
RPI 20
SOS 5
Overall 18-9
3-4 vs RPI 1-25
6-7 vs RPI 1-50 (wins vs wake forest, VATech, louisville, @louisville, @Cal, @Notre Dame, losses vs WVU, FSU, Duke, Miami, @Villanova, @VATech, @UNC)
10-9 vs RPI 1-100
Total RPI of 3 best wins 41
Best Win: Louisville (twice)
Worst Loss: Syracuse

Creighton, 6 Seed, West region
RPI 27
SOS 60
Overall 21-6
4-2 vs RPI 1-25
5-3 vs RPI 1-50 (wins vs Wisconsin, Seton Hall, Butler, @Xavier, @Butler, losses vs Villanova, Xavier, @Seton Hall)
11-6 vs RPI 1-100
Total RPI of best 3 wins is 44
Best Win @Butler
Worst Loss vs Georgetown

Cincinnati 5 Seed, East region
RPI 15
SOS 91
Overall 24-3
2-2 vs RPI 1-25
3-3 vs RPI 1-50 (wins vs SMU, Xavier, @Iowa State, losses vs Rhode Island, @Butler, @SMU)
6-3 vs RPI 1-100
Total RPI of 3 best wins is 80
Best win vs SMU
Worst Loss vs Rhode Island

Oklahoma St 6 seed, East region
RPI 28
SOS 24
Overall 18-9
0-5 vs RPI 1-25
3-7 vs RPI 1-50 (wins vs Arkansas, @Wichita State, @WVU, losses vs UNC, WVU, Iowa St, Baylor, @Maryland, @Baylor, @Kansas)
8-8 vs RPI 1-100
Total RPI of best 3 wins is 107
Best win @WVU
Worst Loss @Texas (RPI=157!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!)

Wisconsin, 5 Seed Midwest Region
RPI 24
SOS 94
Overall 22-5
2-2 vs RPI 1-25
3-5 vs RPI 1-50 (wins vs Michigan, Maryland, @Minnesota, losses vs UNC, Northwestern, @Creighton, @Purdue, @Michigan)
13-5 vs RPI 1-100
Total RPI of best 3 wins 86
Best Win @Minnesota
Worst Loss @Michigan


Notre Dame, 6 Seed Midwest Region
RPI 23
SOS 34
Overall 21-7
2-6 vs RPI 1-25
6-6 vs RPI 1-50 (wins vs Northwestern, Louisville, Wake Forest, FSU, @Miami, @VATech, losses vs Villanova, Purdue, Virginia, Duke, @FSU, @UNC)
10-7 vs RPI 1-100
Total RPI of 3 best wins 53
Best Win vs Louisville
Worst Loss @Georgia Tech (RPI=86)

Now lets look at Minnesota's Resume

RPI 15
SOS 12
Overall 21-7
2-3 vs RPI 1-25
7-5 vs RPI 1-50 (wins vs UT Arlington, Arkansas, Vanderbilt, Michigan, @Purdue, @Northwestern, @Maryland, losses vs MSU, Wisconsin, Maryland, @FSU, @MSU)
11-7 vs RPI 1-100
Total RPI of best 3 wins 70
Best Win @Purdue
Worst Loss @Penn State (RPI 81), @OSU (RPI 79)

We have a much better resume than Saint Mary's, SMU, Cincinnati, Oklahoma St no doubt in my mind. The fact that he has OK State as a 6 seed is actually laughable.
You could argue we have a better resume than Wisconsin and Notre Dame

I think Creighton and Virginia are the only two teams seeded on the 5/6 line above us that actually have a clearly better tournament resume

What the hell is Lunardi smoking?

i know that his rankings don't actually mean anything because he doesn't pick the field, but still not sure what he has against the gophers
 

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