Field of 68 Projection: Gonzaga has entered the building

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SelectionSunday

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ROAD TO SELECTION SUNDAY, MN -- The completion of Week #14 brings 4 new at-large teams into the fold, Gonzaga (after earning its first Quad 1 win), Memphis, Mississippi State, and Nevada (the 6th team in from the Mountain West).

Conversely, the Big East took a big hit going from 7 projected NCAA bids to 4 with Providence, Saint John’s, and Seton Hall all falling out of the field. I don’t think that number will hold; in the end I would expect the Big East to garner 6 bids.

The automatic qualifiers from multiple-bid conferences are listed first. The automatic qualifier is the team with the best conference record (i.e. 2-0 is better than 1-0) or, in the event of a tie, the current #1 seed in the conference tournament.

WEEK #14 FIELD OF 68 PROJECTION (through Feb. 11)
America East (1): Vermont (113)

American (3): USF (103), FAU (26), Memphis (75)

ACC (4): North Carolina (10), Duke (17), Clemson (29), Virginia (32)

ASUN (1): Eastern Kentucky (208)

Atlantic 10 (2): Richmond (70), Dayton (18)

Big East (4): UConn (4), Marquette (11), Creighton (16), Butler (50)

Big Sky (1): Eastern Washington (114)

Big South (1): High Point (107)

Big Ten (5): Purdue (2), Illinois (14), Wisconsin (21), Michigan State (23), Northwestern (56)

Big XII (9): Houston (1), BYU (8), Iowa State (9), Kansas (12), Baylor (13), Oklahoma (30), Texas (33), Texas Tech (38), TCU (41)

Big West (1): UC-Irvine (74)

Colonial (1): UNC-Wilmington (101)

Conference USA (1): Sam Houston (197)

Horizon (1): Green Bay (174)

Ivy (1): Yale (83)

MAAC (1): Quinnipiac (152)

MAC (1): Akron (89)

MEAC (1): NCCU (268)

Missouri Valley (1): Indiana State (20)

Mountain West (6): Utah State (28), San Diego State (19), New Mexico (22), Colorado State (27), Nevada (47), Boise State (49)

NEC (1): Merrimack (193)

OVC (1): Morehead State (102)

Pac 12 (3): Arizona (3), Washington State (40), Utah (48)

Patriot (1): Colgate (132)

SEC (8): Alabama (5), Tennessee (6), Auburn (7), Kentucky (25), Florida (31), Mississippi State (36), Texas A&M (37), South Carolina (45)

SoCon (1): Samford (63)

Southland (1): McNeese (67)

SWAC (1): Grambling (302)

Summit (1): South Dakota State (167)

Sun Belt (1): Troy (133)

WCC (2): Saint Mary’s (15), Gonzaga (24)

WAC (1): Grand Canyon (44)
___________________________
Last 4 In: Memphis (75), Texas Tech (38), Mississippi State (36), Gonzaga (24)

First 4 Out: Nebraska (53), Wake Forest (35), Drake (51), Providence (57)

Dirty Dozen to Watch (12): Cincinnati (34), Colorado (39), Villanova (42), SMU (43), Saint John’s (46), Xavier (52), JMU (55), Ole Miss (58), Pitt (59), Oregon (61), Seton Hall (76), Kansas State (77)

Non-Power 6 At-Large Bids (7): Dayton (18), San Diego State (19), New Mexico (22), FAU (26), Colorado State (27), Boise State (49), Memphis (75)

Current Bid-Stealers (2): Richmond, USF

Moving In (14): Gonzaga, Grambling, Green Bay, Memphis, Mississippi State, Nevada, NCCU, Richmond, Sam Houston, South Dakota State, Troy, UNC-Wilmington, USF, Yale

Dropping Out (14): Appalachian State, Cornell, Drexel, Louisiana Tech, Nebraska, Norfolk State, North Dakota, Oakland, Ole Miss, Oregon, Providence, Saint John’s, Seton Hall, Southern U

WARNING: For those on GopherHole offended by the mere mention of St. Thomas and/or the Summit League, consider this your notice to STOP READING HERE.

** records indicated below are vs. Division 1 opponents only

BIG TEN POWER RANKINGS
1 Purdue (22-2)
2 Illinois (17-6)
3 Northwestern (17-7)
4 Wisconsin (16-8)
5 Michigan State (15-9)
6 Nebraska (17-8)
7 Rutgers (13-10)
8 Iowa (14-10)
9 Minnesota (15-8)
10 Penn State (12-12)
11 Indiana (14-10)
12 Maryland (13-11)
13 Ohio State (14-10)
14 Michigan (8-16)

SUMMIT LEAGUE POWER RANKINGS
1 South Dakota State (11-11)
2 North Dakota (12-11)
3 Denver (10-12)
4 St. Thomas (13-10)
5 North Dakota State (9-13)
6 Kansas City (8-15)
7 ORU (8-13)
8 Omaha (8-14)
9 South Dakota (7-15)

STATE OF MINNESOTA IN THE RANKINGS
NET: Minnesota #85, St. Thomas #145
KenPom: Minnesota #74, St. Thomas #137
Haslametrics: Minnesota #72, St. Thomas #129
 
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Other than the current six teams mentioned on your projection above (five plus Nebraska)....do you see any other B1G conference teams that have a realistic chance to make it back to bubble conversation?
 


golfing18now said:
Other than the current six teams mentioned on your projection above (five plus Nebraska)....do you see any other B1G conference teams that have a realistic chance to make it back to bubble conversation?
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No.

6 will be the best case scenario for the Big Ten this season.
 

Bubble (or not far from it) teams with no road/neutral wins vs. teams currently in the NET top 50:

Colorado
Kansas State
Miami
Nebraska
New Mexico
Northwestern
Providence
Wake Forest

I'd advise these teams to pick up at least one high-quality road/neutral win before 5 p.m. CT on Selection Sunday.
 


SelectionSunday said:
No.

6 will be the best case scenario for the Big Ten this season.
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I'm not certain about that. There is a scenario where even Rutgers could win 6 of their last 8 and put themselves squarely into the conversation. Not saying it will happen, but at this point there are still enough games to play that if you can go on a run, the possibility exists.
 

obobo55 said:
I'm not certain about that. There is a scenario where even Rutgers could win 6 of their last 8 and put themselves squarely into the conversation. Not saying it will happen, but at this point there are still enough games to play that if you can go on a run, the possibility exists.
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Anything is possible, I suppose.

The Gophers could win at both Purdue & Illinois, as well as sweep their 4 remaining home games. Equally as likely.
 

SelectionSunday said:
No.

6 will be the best case scenario for the Big Ten this season.
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Iowa has six Quad 1 opportunities in their final seven games. Of course, that means they will likely lose most of them. But, if they get hot and win three or four of them, they have a real chance to crack the field. I don't think Memphis' resume is much stronger than Iowa's, if at all.

In fact, for the life of me I have no idea what anyone sees in Memphis. Zero shot they should be in the field at this point. Net ranking #76 is brutal, would be the 2nd worst at-large Net ranking in tourney history. The mediocre Quad 1 wins Memphis currently has are right on the fringe of turning into Quad 2 wins. The Tigers haven't played a team in the Top 115 in almost six weeks. Memphis lost at home to #234 Rice. What put them in this week? A Quad 2 home win over 13-10 Tulane?

Honestly, not sure how Memphis can be included in the field over Nebraska or many others. Nebraska is 22 spots higher in the Net and has one of the most impressive wins in the country over #2 Purdue, along with beating #20 Wisconsin, and #22 Michigan State.
 
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tjgopher said:
Iowa has six Quad 1 opportunities in their final seven games. Of course, that means they will likely lose most of them. But, if they get hot and win three or four of them, they have a real chance to crack the field. I don't think Memphis' resume is much stronger than Iowa's, if at all.

In fact, for the life of me I have no idea what anyone sees in Memphis. Zero shot they should be in the field at this point. Net ranking #76 is brutal, would be the 2nd worst at-large Net ranking in tourney history. The mediocre Quad 1 wins Memphis currently has are right on the fringe of turning into Quad 2 wins. The Tigers haven't played a team in the Top 115 in almost six weeks. Memphis lost at home to #234 Rice. What put them in this week? A Quad 2 home win over 13-10 Tulane?

Honestly, not sure how Memphis can be included in the field over Nebraska or many others. Nebraska is 22 spots higher in the Net and has one of the most impressive wins in the country over #2 Purdue, along with beating #20 Wisconsin, and #22 Michigan State.
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I think most have Nebraska over Memphis at this point.


But Nebraska also needs to win a damn conference road game
 



SelectionSunday said:
Anything is possible, I suppose.

The Gophers could win at both Purdue & Illinois, as well as sweep their 4 remaining home games. Equally as likely.
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The only reason I brought up Rutgers is they have just added a player who had missed the entire season in Williams. Their defense has been good all year and he has improved their offense a bit.

Northwestern
@Minnesota
@Purdue
Maryland
Michigan
@Nebraska
@Wisconsin
OhioSt

The 4 home games are certainly gettable. Can they win in Williams? Then split the NE/WI trip? 6-2 would get them to 11-9 and would put them into the 6 or 7 spot for the B1G tourney.

In general, I agree that 5 or 6 is far more likely. My only point was that it was too early to completely lock out the bottom 8.
 

obobo55 said:
The only reason I brought up Rutgers is they have just added a player who had missed the entire season in Williams. Their defense has been good all year and he has improved their offense a bit.

Northwestern
@Minnesota
@Purdue
Maryland
Michigan
@Nebraska
@Wisconsin
OhioSt

The 4 home games are certainly gettable. Can they win in Williams? Then split the NE/WI trip? 6-2 would get them to 11-9 and would put them into the 6 or 7 spot for the B1G tourney.

In general, I agree that 5 or 6 is far more likely. My only point was that it was too early to completely lock out the bottom 8.
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Very fair points by all of you. (TJ's post on Memphis/Nebraska comparison, too)
 

Wednesday Bubble Games
#22 Michigan State @ Penn State -- Win some road games & MSU's resume should be fine
#69 Miami @ Clemson -- Hurricanes desperately need a win like this
#51 Xavier @ #75 Seton Hall -- lots of Big East bubble battles coming down the stretch run
 

My 15 most "bubblish" teams heading into the weekend. Please note, as always, there are a few here that are in a much better position (for example, Texas A&M & Virginia) than most of the others:

#23 Gonzaga
#34 Mississippi State
#36 Wake Forest
#37 Cincinnati
#38 Villanova
#41 Virginia
#43 Texas A&M
#47 Nevada
#48 Utah
#49 Butler
#51 Drake
#53 Nebraska
#57 Providence
#60 Northwestern
#68 Seton Hall

One that might surprise you that I have "safely in the field" (for now). ... #45 Boise State. In terms of teams on or around the bubble, I like the Broncos' resume.
 



SelectionSunday said:
My 15 most "bubblish" teams heading into the weekend. Please note, as always, there are a few here that are in a much better position (for example, Texas A&M & Virginia) than most of the others:

#23 Gonzaga
#34 Mississippi State
#36 Wake Forest
#37 Cincinnati
#38 Villanova
#41 Virginia
#43 Texas A&M
#47 Nevada
#48 Utah
#49 Butler
#51 Drake
#53 Nebraska
#57 Providence
#60 Northwestern
#68 Seton Hall

One that might surprise you that I have "safely in the field" (for now). ... #45 Boise State. In terms of teams on or around the bubble, I like the Broncos' resume.
Click to expand...

Boise's gotta a bunch of quality wins. Their OOC was insanely difficult.
 

Will remain in next week's Field of 68 projection no matter what with a win this weekend. ...

1 Texas A&M (@ Alabama)
2 Butler (host Creighton)
3 Virginia (host Wake Forest)
 

Of the above-mentioned 15 bubble teams, 5 have yet to suffer a bad loss (Quad 3 or 4):

Butler (8-0)
Providence (9-0)
Nebraska (11-0)
Wake Forest (11-0)
Gonzaga (15-0)

3 of the 15 have a non-conference SOS ranking ranking 300 or worse (bubble danger zone):

Cincinnati (300)
Northwestern (324)
Nebraska (328)
 

6 of the 15 have 4 or more Quad 1 wins:

Nevada (5-3)
Texas A&M (5-4)
Northwestern (4-5)
Seton Hall (4-5)
Providence (4-6)
Butler (4-8)
 

SelectionSunday said:
Of the above-mentioned 15 bubble teams, 5 have yet to suffer a bad loss (Quad 3 or 4):

Butler (8-0)
Providence (9-0)
Nebraska (11-0)
Wake Forest (11-0)
Gonzaga (15-0)

3 of the 15 have a non-conference SOS ranking ranking 300 or worse (bubble danger zone):

Cincinnati (300)
Northwestern (324)
Nebraska (328)
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Okay we’re a couple years into Net. Does “bad loss” mean anything beyond messing up the metrics? Does the committee really sit there and say Northwestern crapped the floor with Chicago State so we’re keeping them out? I personally don’t buy it. I think it’s far more damaging to have not won a few higher rated games. Who you beat has to be more useful than who you lost to.

But I have no knowledge or authority.
 

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