Field of 68 Projection (Feb. 10, 2015)

[SelectionSunday]

We'll give our projection a different look this time. Let's break it down not by conference but rather into: (1) auto qualifiers; (2) outlook is good; (3) strong bubblers; (4) squarely on the bubble; and (5) longshots.

(1), (2), and (3) are projected into the field, with the remaining slots being filled by those in (4). What it amounts to is as of today I have 53 of the 68 tournament bids comfortably filled. That number will be in flux, obviously, as the regular season winds down, and conference tournaments commence.

RPI is noted in parentheses.

Automatic Qualifiers/Conference Leaders (32)
America East: Albany (132)
AAC: Tulsa (45)
ACC: Virginia (3)
Atlantic Sun: North Florida (203)
A-10: VCU (9)
Big East: Villanova (5)
Big Sky: Sacramento State (140)
Big South: NC-Asheville (213)
Big Ten: Wisconsin (6)
Big XII: Kansas (1)
Big West: UC-Davis (90)
CAA: William & Mary (76)
Conference USA: Louisiana Tech (75)
Horizon: Valparaiso (80)
Ivy: Harvard (57)
MAAC: Iona (59)
MAC: Toledo (89)
MEAC: NCCU (107)
MVC: Northern Iowa (19)
Mountain West: San Diego State (30)
NEC: Saint Francis-NY (183)
OVC: Murray State (71)
Pac 12: Arizona (7)
Patriot: Colgate (197)
SEC: Kentucky (2)
Southern: Wofford (42)
Southland: Stephen F. Austin (78)
SWAC: *Alabama State (222); . ... Texas Southern (159), if Alabama State is ineligible for postseason play
Summit: North Dakota State (146)
Sun Belt: Louisiana-Monroe (115)
WCC: Gonzaga (8)
WAC: New Mexico State (145)

Outlook Is Good (21)
Duke (4)
North Carolina (10)
Utah (11)
Louisville (12)
Oklahoma (13)
Baylor (14)
Wichita State (15)
Maryland (16)
Butler (17)
Iowa State (18)
Oklahoma (20)
Providence (21)
SMU (22)
Georgetown (23)
Arkansas (25)
Cincinnati (27)
Notre Dame (28)
West Virginia (29)
Indiana (31)
Ohio State (35)
Iowa (38)

Strong Bubblers (8)
Georgia (24)
Colorado State (26)
Xavier (34)
Dayton (37)
Ole Miss (39)
Stanford (44)
LSU (51)
Seton Hall (54)

Squarely On The Bubble (15 teams for 7 bids)
Texas (32) -- IN
Texas A&M (33) -- OUT
Temple (36) -- IN
Boise State (40) -- OUT
Old Dominion (41) -- IN
UCLA (46) -- OUT
Illinois (48) -- IN
George Washington (49) -- OUT
Saint John's (50) -- OUT
Michigan State (52) -- IN
Miami (55) -- IN
Oregon (58) -- IN
NC State (64) -- OUT
Purdue (72) -- OUT
Wyoming (73) -- OUT

Longshots (8)
Massachusetts (47)
Rhode Island (56)
Saint Mary's (60)
Pitt (63)
BYU (66)
Oregon State (68)
Alabama (69)
Clemson (77)

Last 4 In: Temple (36), Old Dominion (41), Michigan State (52), Oregon (58)

First 4 Out: Texas A&M (33), Boise State (40), UCLA (46), Saint Johns' (50)

Multiple-Bid Conferences
Big Ten (7)
Big XII (7)
ACC (6)
Big East (6)
SEC (5)
AAC (4)
Pac 12 (4)
Conference USA (2)
Atlantic 10 (2)
MVC (2)
Mountain West (2)

Comparing to Lunardi/Palm Current Projections
Lunardi and I differ on 1 team. I have Oregon in the field, in the Ducks' place Lunardi has Texas A&M.

Palm and I differ on 2 teams. I have Michigan State and Oregon in the field, in their place Palm has Saint John's and Texas A&M.

Last 4 In
Lunardi: Illinois, Miami, Old Dominion, Temple
Palm: George Washington, Illinois, Temple, Texas A&M
SS: Michigan State, Old Dominion, Oregon, Temple

First 4 Out
Lunardi: George Washington, Purdue, Saint John's, UCLA
Palm: Michigan State, NC State, Old Dominion, Oregon
SS: Boise State, Saint John's, Texas A&M, UCLA