Field of 68 Projection (2/10/14): Gophers "in", but not safe

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SelectionSunday

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We'll split this week's breakdown into six groups: (1) automatics/conference leaders; (2) virtual locks; (3) "in", but not safe; (4) "in", on the right side of the bubble; (5); "out", on the wrong side of the bubble; and (6) on the radar, but major work to do.

There are 61 teams filling the first three groupings, meaning at this writing I have 7 at-large bids available for the taking. There are 25 teams vying for those 7 spots, 13 (in my estimation) legitimately so. RPI (courtesy of Jerry Palm @ CBS) is noted in parentheses.

Automatics/Conference Leaders (32)
America East: Vermont (108)
American: Cincinnati (14)
ACC: Syracuse (4)
Atlantic Sun: Mercer (66)
Atlantic Ten: Saint Louis (18)
Big East: Villanova (3)
Big Sky: Weber State (156)
Big South: North Carolina-Asheville (206)
Big Ten: Michigan State (10)
Big XII: Kansas (1)
Big West: Cal-Irvine (126)
Colonial: Delaware (64)
Conference USA: Southern Miss (34)
Horizon: Green Bay (71)
Ivy: Harvard (52)
MAAC: Iona (84)
MAC: Toledo (31)
MEAC: North Carolina Central (138)
Missouri Valley: Wichita State (6)
Mountain West: San Diego State (15)
Northeast: Robert Morris (147)
Ohio Valley: Belmont (58)
Pac 12: Arizona (2)
Patriot: Boston U (98)
SEC: Florida (5)
Southern: Davidson (152)
Southland: Stephen F. Austin (88)
SWAC: Southern U (186)
Summit: North Dakota State (48)
Sun Belt: Georgia State (86)
West Coast: Gonzaga (21)
WAC: Utah Valley (136)

Virtual Locks (20)
Wisconsin (7)
Duke (8)
Iowa State (9)
Kentucky (11)
UMass (12)
Creighton (13)
Ohio State (16)
Michigan (17)
UCLA (19)
Virginia (20)
Oklahoma (22)
Iowa (23)
New Mexico (24)
Colorado (25)
Pitt (26)
Texas (27)
Memphis (28)
UConn (30)
Louisville (33)
North Carolina (38)

In, But Not Safe (9)
VCU (29)
George Washington (32)
Oklahoma State (35)
Xavier (36)
Kansas State (37)
SMU (39)
GOPHERS (41)
BYU (43)
Stanford (44)

In, On the Right Side of the Bubble (7)
Arizona State (40)
Richmond (45)
Tennessee (47)
Providence (50)
Cal (51)
Georgetown (57)
LSU (62)

Out, On the Wrong Side of the Bubble (6)
Saint Joseph's (46)
Missouri (49)
Florida State (54)
Ole Miss (56)
Dayton (60)
Saint John's (63)

On the Radar, But Major Work to Do (12)
Oregon (42)
Saint Mary's (53)
Indiana State (55)
NC State (59)
Clemson (65)
Boise State (67)
Nebraska (68)
Maryland (69)
Louisiana Tech (72)
UTEP (77)
Indiana (78)
Arkansas (79)

Last 4 In: Richmond (45), Tennessee (47), Providence (50), LSU (62)

First 4 Out: Saint Joseph's (46), Florida State (54), Ole Miss (56), Dayton (60)

New to the Field (since Jan. 27 projection): Arizona State, Boston U, BYU, Davidson, Georgetown, Iona, LSU, North Carolina Central, Vermont, Weber State

Dropped from the Field (since Jan. 27 projection): American, Arkansas, Canisius, Chattanooga, Florida State, Northern Colorado, Oregon, Saint Mary's, Savannah State, Stony Brook
 

Jerry Palm's latest bracketology (today)

Palm and I differ on 2 at-larges. He has Missouri and Oregon in the field, in their place I have BYU and LSU.

Palm's last 4 in? Oregon (42), Richmond (45), Missouri (49), Georgetown (57)
My last 4 in? Richmond (45), Tennessee (47), Providence (50), LSU (62)

Palm's first 4 out? Dayton (60), Baylor (61), LSU (62), Saint John's (63)
My first 4 out? Saint Joseph's (46), Florida State (54), Ole Miss (56), Dayton (60)

http://www.cbssports.com/collegebasketball/bracketology
 

I really hope that one day I won't be automatically clicking on your projection posts because once again it's bubble watching time. They're excellent, but, geez, it would be nice to wrap up a spot about the end of January for once.
 

Mulligan said:
I really hope that one day I won't be automatically clicking on your projection posts because once again it's bubble watching time. They're excellent, but, geez, it would be nice to wrap up a spot about the end of January for once.
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Thanks. It's hard to believe, but last year at this time the Gophers had a RPI of #13. ... yet still made us pull our hair out all the way through Selection Sunday, capped by the gut-tearing buzzer-beater vs. Illinois in Chicago. Agreed, would best prefer the Gophers take a less stressful path.
 

Thanks for the projection of 68.

Pains me to say it, but Nebraska might have a better shot at 9 conference wins than the Gophers. Win out at home and pay back NW for that loss. That's what I'm hoping for.

Off topic a bit, but how would you like to be an Illinois fan? Finally beat Penn State after an 8 game skid.
 


fan of Ray Williams said:
Pains me to say it, but Nebraska might have a better shot at 9 conference wins than the Gophers. Win out at home and pay back NW for that loss. That's what I'm hoping for.
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Still holding out for 9-9 (though 8-10 more likely for Gophers), but realistically 9 pretty much becomes unattainable without a road split this week.
 

Good reading as always. I feel decent about the NW game. We are better and we should be angry.
 

Lots of streaks in the B1G this year, both winning and losing. Maybe it is time for us to go on a 4 game winning streak. Stick it to the cheesedinks, pay back NW and hold home court against Illinois. That would end this bubble talk and get us back to talking about seeding!
 

The more optimistic way to look at things. ...

If they beat the Badgers for a season sweep, it will be really difficult for the Gophers to screw it up (NCAA bid) down the stretch. A sweep of Bucky would increase the margin for error greatly. If the Gophers are gonna' win one game this week, it's better they beat the Badgers.
 



SelectionSunday said:
The more optimistic way to look at things. ...

If they beat the Badgers for a season sweep, it will be really difficult for the Gophers to screw it up (NCAA bid) down the stretch. A sweep of Bucky would increase the margin for error greatly. If the Gophers are gonna' win one game this week, it's better they beat the Badgers.
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I'm assuming that a win against the Badgers makes 8-10 very comfortable on selection sunday, right?
 

jmag21 said:
I'm assuming that a win against the Badgers makes 8-10 very comfortable on selection sunday, right?
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I'll go with "uneasy but optimistic" over "very comfortable"!

But yes, 8-10 that includes a road win over Wisconsin, Ohio State, or Michigan would put the Gophers on pretty solid footing, even with a 1-and-done in Indy. But when you're a bubble team, never like those 1-and-dones at the BTT. Allows for too many bad thoughts to creep into my head over the following three days (Friday-Sunday).
 

amazing how that road win over richmond really is helping the team out now.
 




If the Gophers go 8-10, they are in with about a 90% certainty.

Look at some of these other teams and what they'd have to do to get close.
 


Mulligan said:
I really hope that one day I won't be automatically clicking on your projection posts because once again it's bubble watching time. They're excellent, but, geez, it would be nice to wrap up a spot about the end of January for once.
Click to expand...

I echo this. SS is the best poster of GH, but I hope someday SS' posts become irrelevant. Like after 6 consecutive 25+ win seasons.
 

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