Field of 68 Projection (12/17/10)

[SelectionSunday]

For this projection -- unlike all others I'll make leading up to March Madness -- I am projecting future results. My standard MO is to make at-large projections based on results up to the current point of the season (who you played, where you played 'em, who you beat, where you beat 'em).

Please note, automatic qualifiers are those currently leading their conference (for example: 2-0 is better than 1-0) or, in the event of a tie, the team with the best RPI. All RPI numbers are courtesy of Jerry Palm @ CollegeRPI.com. Let me know if you think I've whiffed on or overvalued any team.

AUTOMATIC QUALIFIERS (31)
America East: Vermont (36)
ACC: Boston College (10)
Atlantic Sun: Belmont (102)
Atlantic 10: Temple (22)
Big East: Georgetown (1)
Big Sky: Northern Arizona (148)
Big South: Liberty (191)
Big 10: Ohio State (14)
Big 12: Kansas (4)
Big West: UCSB (70)
Colonial: Drexel (23)
Conference USA: Memphis (32)
Horizon: Cleveland State (20)
Ivy: Princeton (58)
Metro Atlantic: Iona (87)
MAC: Kent State (27)
MEAC: Hampton (90)
Missouri Valley: Northern Iowa (57)
Mountain West: BYU (5)
Northeast: St. Francis-NY (160)
Ohio Valley: Morehead State (111)
Pac 10: Cal (31)
Patriot: American (151)
SEC: Kentucky (2)
Southern: Wofford (103)
Southland: Sam Houston State (61)
SWAC: Jackson State (96)
Summit: Oakland (50)
Sun Belt: Florida Atlantic (86)
West Coast: Portland (62)
WAC: Utah State (30)

AT-LARGES (37)
ACC (4): Duke (3), North Carolina (16), Miami-Florida (19), Florida State (123)
Atlantic 10 (1): Richmond (33)
Big East (6): UConn (7), West Virginia (9), Syracuse (11), Pitt (15), Notre Dame (29), Villanova (40)
Big 10 (6): Illinois (18), Minnesota (24), Michigan State (39), Wisconsin (44), Northwestern (47), Purdue (49)
Big 12 (6): Kansas State (13), Missouri (26), Baylor (43), Texas (46), Texas A&M (51), Oklahoma State (71)
Colonial (1): Old Dominion (12)
Conference USA (1): Central Florida (53)
Missouri Valley (1): Wichita State (78)
Mountain West (3): San Diego State (21), UNLV (25), New Mexico (80)
Pac 10 (3): Washington (48), Arizona (54), Washington State (110)
SEC (4): Tennessee (6), Florida (8), Vanderbilt (17), Georgia (35)
West Coast (1): St. Mary's (77)

Non-BCS At-Larges (8): Old Dominion (12), San Diego State (21), UNLV (25), Richmond (33), Central Florida (53), St. Mary's (77), Wichita State (78), New Mexico (80)

Last 4 In: Northwestern (47), Wichita State (78), Washington State (110), Florida State (123)

First 4 Out: Xavier (28), NC State (34), Louisville (38), Gonzaga (107)

Others Considered (8): Southern Miss (37), Ole Miss (42), Virginia Tech (67), Virginia (68), VCU (74), Michigan (76), South Carolina (89), Cincinnati (104)

BCS Teams in the Field (35): 51.5%

Non-BCS Teams in the Field (33): 48.5%

*** If you're interested, here's my "resume" since 1991-92, so to speak, when somehow I developed a deranged affliction for projecting the NCAA Tournament field.

Projecting At-Larges (1991-92 through 2009-10)
1991-92: 33/34
1992-93: 31/34
1993-94: 30/34
1994-95: 30/34
1995-96: 33/34
1996-97: 31/34
1997-98: 30/34
1998-99: 31/34
1999-00: 32/34
2000-01: 34/34 (perfect)
2001-02: 33/34
2002-03: 33/34
2003-04: 31/34
2004-05: 32/34
2005-06: 31/34
2006-07: 32/34
2007-08: 33/34
2008-09: 34/34 (perfect)
2009-10: 33/34
2010-11: ??/38
TOTALS: 607/646 (93.96%)
LAST 5 YEARS: 163/170 (95.88%)

Next Field of 68 Projection: Monday, January 10th

 

[GopherCrazy]

i am so glad you post here.

 

[MN1nAZ]

That's two of us!!!

 

[ilovethebarn]

That is amazing to me that you are 90% + right every year. Amazing