Field of 68 Projection (12/14/14)

[SelectionSunday]

America East (1): Vermont

AAC (2): SMU, UConn

ACC (7): Duke, Louisville, Miami, North Carolina, NC State, Notre Dame, Virginia

Atlantic Sun (1): Florida Gulf Coast

Atlantic 10 (2): Dayton, VCU

Big East (6): Butler, Providence, Saint John's, Seton Hall, Villanova, Xavier

Big Sky (1): Eastern Washington

Big South (1): Coastal Carolina

Big Ten (6): Illinois, Maryland, Michigan State, Ohio State, Penn State, Wisconsin

Big XII (7): Baylor, Iowa State, Kansas, Oklahoma, Texas, TCU, West Virginia

Big West (1): Long Beach State

Colonial (1): Northeastern

Conference USA (1): ODU

Horizon (1): Green Bay

Ivy (1): Harvard

MAAC (1): Canisius

MAC (1): Eastern Michigan

MEAC (1): NCCU

Missouri Valley (2): Northern Iowa, Wichita State

Mountain West (4): Boise State, Colorado State, San Diego State, Wyoming

NEC (1): Mount Saint Mary's

OVC (1): Murray State

Pac 12 (5): Arizona, Cal, Stanford, Utah, Washington

Patriot (1): Army

SEC (4): Alabama, Arkansas, Kentucky, LSU

Southern (1): Mercer

Southland (1): Stephen F. Austin

SWAC (1): Texas Southern

Summit (1): South Dakota State

Sun Belt (1): Georgia State

WCC (2): Gonzaga, Saint Mary's

WAC (1): New Mexico State

Last 4 In: Illinois, Providence, Saint Mary's, TCU

First 4 Out: George Washington, Oklahoma State, Ole Miss, UTEP

 

[DeathClutch]

Meh, Penn State has played some decent Mid- Majors, but their overall Non-Conference SOS is weak. GW and Akron are solid wins, and Charlotte isn't necessarily a bad loss, but they have some very close wins over some bad teams.

 

[60's Guy]

If our guards stay healthy...we can climb in there.

 

[MUgopher32]

Penn State? PLEASE PUT DOWN THE CRACK PIPE.

 

[SelectionSunday]

Just a snapshot. A lot will change over the next 3 months. If Penn State is still here 2 months from now (as well as quite a few others, i.e. TCU) we've got a major story brewing!

 

[Winasota Gopher]

Just a snapshot. A lot will change over the next 3 months. If Penn State is still here 2 months from now (as well as quite a few others, i.e. TCU) we've got a major story brewing!

So when you say "projections" are you saying how you think the year will end according to ytd results? Or are you saying this is if the season ended today here is who would be in?

 

[SelectionSunday]

So when you say "projections" are you saying how you think the year will end according to ytd results? Or are you saying this is if the season ended today here is who would be in?

Good question. This first in-season projection always is a hodge-podge mixture. Combo of what they've done so far along with what I think will happen eventually. This projection and the next one (Dec. 31 or Jan. 1) are the only projections that will be that way. After those 2 the remaining projections will be based solely on "if the season ended today". ... with no projection of future results.

 

[Winasota Gopher]

Good question. This first in-season projection always is a hodge-podge mixture. Combo of what they've done so far along with what I think will happen eventually. This projection and the next one (Dec. 31 or Jan. 1) are the only projections that will be that way. After those 2 the remaining projections will be based solely on "if the season ended today". ... with no projection of future results.

So with that being said, as of today, you think Penn State is going to play well enough in the B1G 10 Season to warrant an at large bid? Not saying you are wrong, admittedly I haven't watched much(any) PSU basketball this year. Just curious if that is truly how you feel as your response to MUgopher's crack pipe comment made me questions how convicted you are on that belief.

 

[SelectionSunday]

So with that being said, as of today, you think Penn State is going to play well enough in the B1G 10 season to warrant an at large bid?.

I would answer no to that, though I would say that after Wisconsin, Ohio State, and Michigan State (with OSU & MSU well behind Bucky), I don't see a lot of difference between teams 4 to 12 (exclude Northwestern and Rutgers) in the Big Ten.

 

[cjbfbp]

Big Ten (6): Illinois, Maryland, Michigan State, Ohio State, Penn State, Wisconsin

If I had to guess, I would say the Big Ten probably gets 7 teams in this year due to the conference having 14 teams and the potential parity within the conference. I think we could see a year something like 2008-09 (or 2010-11) where one team has a dominant conference record (Wisconsin), another team has a pretty good record of something like 12 or 13 wins (maybe Ohio St.), and five others have between 9 and 11 wins.

Given the vulnerability throughout the conference, I think PSU being one of those teams is a reasonable possibility. They should finish the non-conference record at 12-1 and that should give them pretty decent confidence level heading into the season. They have a core of veteran guys and a pretty fair newcomer in Shep Garner.

 

[SelectionSunday]

If I had to guess, I would say the Big Ten probably gets 7 teams in this year due to the conference having 14 teams and the potential parity within the conference. I think we could see a year something like 2008-09 (or 2010-11) where one team has a dominant conference record (Wisconsin), another team has a pretty good record of something like 12 or 13 wins (maybe Ohio St.), and five others have between 9 and 11 wins.

Given the vulnerability throughout the conference, I think PSU being one of those teams is a reasonable possibility. They should finish the non-conference record at 12-1 and that should give them pretty decent confidence level heading into the season. They have a core of veteran guys and a pretty fair newcomer in Shep Garner.

Agreed. I think 6 with a max of 7 is a pretty safe bet for the Big Ten. 8 is a stretch considering how few truly quality wins there are during the non-conference season.

 

[cjbfbp]

Meh, Penn State has played some decent Mid- Majors, but their overall Non-Conference SOS is weak. GW and Akron are solid wins, and Charlotte isn't necessarily a bad loss, but they have some very close wins over some bad teams.

They have had some close games against undistinguished teams but, other than Charlotte (not a bad team at all), they've always managed to finish on the right side of the score, unlike Michigan, Purdue, and Nebraska. While their non-conference schedule hasn't been strong, Sagarin ranks theirs ahead of OSU, Maryland, Iowa, Purdue, and Indiana.

 

[60's Guy]

Here's my take

Agreed. I think 6 with a max of 7 is a pretty safe bet for the Big Ten. 8 is a stretch considering how few truly quality wins there are during the non-conference season.

If Louisville is a top 5 team and St Johns is a top 25 team in the country, then the Gophers are absolutely capable of being a top 68 team. Whether they perform to those standards is very dependent on how healthy they are. I'm not enamored with our talent, but Pitino can coach. I agree we need to be in the top 7 in the Big Ten to even be considered.

 

[cjbfbp]

If Louisville is a top 5 team and St Johns is a top 25 team in the country, then the Gophers are absolutely capable of being a top 68 team.

Of course, but a power conference team needs to be better than one of the top 68 to qualify given all of the automatic bids from lower mid major conferences. The Gophers were better than that last year and didn't make it. To be safe, they need to finish with an RPI in the top 40. Right now I would guess that they will.

 

[bigticket1]

Was glad to see that you had SDSU in from the Summit. They have struggled with 3 new starters and no true point guard , but George Marshall , the transfer from Wisconsin becomes eligible this week , which should help.

 

[tjgopher]

Agreed. I think 6 with a max of 7 is a pretty safe bet for the Big Ten. 8 is a stretch considering how few truly quality wins there are during the non-conference season.

I should know better than to doubt you, but I will say 7 from the Big Ten is a cinch, and I'm predicting 8 make it. I think 8 from the ACC will be in, as well. KenPom (which is a much more accurate early season indicator of what has happened and more importantly, what is likely to happen) has ten teams from the Big Ten in the Top 60 and projects nine Big Ten teams to finish at least 9-9 in the league. SOS will benefit greatly from that throughout the Big Ten season.

Even glancing at an RPI number at this point is meaningless. It just is.