Field of 68 Breakdown: North Carolina Snags Lock Status; 9 At-Large Bids Remain

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SelectionSunday

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(updated through games played Wednesday, March 10)
Here's a breakdown of how I view the NCAA Tournament field. I will update this daily as we weave our way through Championship Week all the way to Selection Sunday, when I'll post my final Field of 68 projection in the wee hours of Sunday morning.

WEDNESDAY WORDS
1. North Carolina becomes the 28th "stone-cold lock" at-large after thrashing bubble team Louisville in the 2nd round of the ACC Tournament. That leaves us with 9 available at-large bids heading into Thursday's tournament action.

2. Maryland and Michigan State both likely will make the NCAA, but the winner of their 2nd round matchup Thursday at the Big Ten Tournament will seal the deal.

3. After its rout of NC State (knocking the Wolfpack off the at-large board), Syracuse can lock up a bid if the Orangemen can beat ACC top seed Virginia this afternoon.

4. Duke (13-11) is back on my at-large board after Wednesday's pasting of Louisville. The Blue Devils remain a longshot, needing a pair of wins over Florida State and then the Virginia Tech/North Carolina winner just to get into the conversation. Still, the Dukies are not buried yet.

NET rankings (through March 10) are noted in parentheses. Thursday games are noted in bold italic.

Clinched Automatic Bids (11)
#1 GONZAGA (1)
#1 LOYOLA-CHICAGO (10)
#1 WINTHROP (54)
#1 LIBERTY (82)
#1 UNC-GREENSBORO (84)
#2 MOREHEAD STATE (122)
#6 DREXEL (137)
#4 ORAL ROBERTS (158)
#4 MOUNT SAINT MARY'S (161)
#1 CLEVELAND STATE (162)
#7 APPALACHIAN STATE (209)

Auto Bid Placeholder/Highest Remaining Tournament Seed (20)
#4 Hartford (America East title game)
#1 Wichita State (AAC quarterfinals
#1 Virginia (ACC quarterfinals) -- vs. Syracuse
#1 Saint Bonaventure (A-10 title game)
#1 Villanova (Big East quarterfinals) -- vs. Georgetown
#1 Southern Utah (Big Sky quarterfinals) -- vs. Northern Colorado
#1 Michigan (Big Ten quarterfinals)
#1 Baylor (Big XII quarterfinals) -- vs. Kansas State
#1 UCSB (Big West quarterfinals) -- vs. Long Beach State
#1 Western Kentucky (Conference USA quarterfinals) -- vs. UTSA
#3 Saint Peter's (MAAC quarterfinals) -- vs. Rider
#1 Toledo (MAC quarterfinals) -- vs. Ball State
#1 North Carolina A&T (MEAC semifinals)
#1 San Diego State (Mountain West quarterfinals) -- vs. Wyoming
#1 Oregon (Pac 12 quarterfinals) -- vs. Arizona State
#2 Colgate (Patriot title game)
#1 Alabama (SEC quarterfinals)
#1 Nicholls State (Southland semifinals)
#1 Prairie View A&M (SWAC semifinals)
#1 Grand Canyon (WAC semifinals)

Stone-Cold Locks (28)
Illinois (4)
Iowa (5)
Houston (6)
Ohio State (9) -- vs. Minnesota
Colorado (11) -- vs. Cal
Kansas (13) -- vs. Oklahoma
Arkansas (15)
USC (16) -- vs. Utah
Texas Tech (17) -- vs. Texas
Tennessee (18)
BYU (19) -- season complete
Purdue (20)
Florida State (22) -- vs. Duke
West Virginia (23) -- vs. Oklahoma State
Texas (24) -- vs. Texas Tech
Creighton (25) -- vs. Butler
Wisconsin (26) -- vs. Penn State
LSU (28)
Florida (29) -- vs. Vanderbilt
Oklahoma State (30) -- vs. West Virginia
UConn (31) -- vs. DePaul
North Carolina (32) -- vs. Virginia Tech
VCU (35)
Oklahoma (36) -- vs. Kansas
Georgia Tech (37) -- vs. Miami
Rutgers (38) -- vs. Indiana
Clemson (40) -- season complete
Missouri (47) -- vs. Georgia

1 More Win Locks It Up (4)
Maryland (34) -- vs. Michigan State
Syracuse (39) -- vs. Virginia
Virginia Tech (44) -- vs. North Carolina
Michigan State (67) -- vs. Maryland

On The Bubble (10) -- 5 of these 10 would make the field
UCLA (42) -- vs. Oregon State
Boise State (43) -- vs. Nevada
Drake (45) -- season complete (+304 PD)
Utah State (49) -- vs. UNLV
Colorado State (50) -- vs. Fresno State
Ole Miss (53) -- vs. South Carolina
Louisville (57) -- season complete (+29 PD)
Seton Hall (58) -- vs. Saint John's
Xavier (62) -- season complete (+97 PD)
Saint John's (66) -- vs. Seton Hall

Longshots (3) -- Win 2 Games + Get A Lot of Help
Saint Louis (46) -- season complete (+207 PD)
Duke (51) -- vs. Florida State
Memphis (52)
 
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Minnesota could be a longshot by Friday!
 


Otis said:
Minnesota could be a longshot by Friday!
Click to expand...
Honestly I have felt like Minnesota needed 16 wins to be in contention and 17 to be in for a long time. I still feel that way.

if they beat northwestern, Ohio state, Purdue....they likely are back in the conversation. If they follow that up by beating Michigan again, they’d be in without a tourney title.


all that being said...I think they lose to northwestern tonight
 


Some guy said:
Honestly I have felt like Minnesota needed 16 wins to be in contention and 17 to be in for a long time. I still feel that way.

if they beat northwestern, Ohio state, Purdue....they likely are back in the conversation. If they follow that up by beating Michigan again, they’d be in without a tourney title.


all that being said...I think they lose to northwestern tonight
Click to expand...

Yeah, if the stars align perfectly and they go on a run maybe they find a way to sneak in. But like you, I am banking on tonight being the final game of the season. I just don't think this team has much fight left at this point.
 

MNVCGUY said:
Yeah, if the stars align perfectly and they go on a run maybe they find a way to sneak in. But like you, I am banking on tonight being the final game of the season. I just don't think this team has much fight left at this point.
Click to expand...
I forgot how bad northwestern was. We have a chance
 

NOTHING can save Richard’s job. Nothing. Let’s get some wins for the boys.
 

Now updated through games played Wednesday, March 10. I'll update NET rankings Thursday morning.
 










Some guy said:
SS I would love to see you do a “first 16 out” in order so I can see how many teams need to get Covid for the gophers to go
Click to expand...
He'd wear his keyboard down to nubs typing that many names
 

SS, can you add a projection of who could be the Stand by Teams or would this just be the first 4 out?
 

Otis said:
SS, can you add a projection of who could be the Stand by Teams or would this just be the first 4 out?
Click to expand...
Stand-by teams will be the first 4 out.

I'll have those with my final projection late Saturday night/early Sunday morning.
 

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