"Field of 65" Projection #4 (1/18/10)

[SelectionSunday]

Joe Lunardi and I currently have 4 differences. Lunardi has Cal, Illinois, Louisville and St. Mary's in the field, in their place I have Oklahoma State, Richmond, VCU and Wichita State.

All RPI rankings are courtesy of CollegeRPI.com, through games played Sunday, January 17.

*Denotes conference leader or (in the event of a tie) best RPI in multiple-bid league.

America East (1): Vermont (136)

ACC (7): Duke (1), Wake Forest (27), Clemson (28), Georgia Tech (33), North Carolina (51), Florida State (54), *Virginia (101)

Atlantic Sun (1): Campbell (189)

Atlantic Ten (5): Temple (12), *Xavier (14), Rhode Island (20), Dayton (29), Richmond (31)

Big East (7): Syracuse (2), *Villanova (4), Pitt (7), Georgetown (8), West Virginia (11), Connecticut (24), Cincinnati (48)

Big Sky (1): Weber State (96)

Big South (1): Coastal Carolina (161)

Big Ten (4): Wisconsin (9), Purdue (17), *Michigan State (18), Ohio State (49)

Big Twelve (7): Kansas (3), *Texas (5), Kansas State (6), Baylor (26), Oklahoma State (36), Texas A&M (39), Missouri (47)

Big West (1): Pacific (107)

Colonial (2): *William & Mary (30), VCU (46)

Conference USA (2): UAB (35), *Marshall (52)

Horizon (1): Butler (23)

Ivy (1): Cornell (37)

Metro Atlantic (1): Siena (32)

MAC (1): Buffalo (75)

MEAC (1): Morgan State (128)

Missouri Valley (2): *Northern Iowa (15), Wichita State (61)

Mountain West (3): New Mexico (16), *BYU (22), UNLV (41)

Northeast (1): Quinnipiac (186)

Ohio Valley (1): Murray State (78)

Pac Ten (1): Arizona State (60)

Patriot (1): Lafayette (193)

SEC (5): *Kentucky (10), Tennessee (19), Vanderbilt (21), Ole Miss (42), Mississippi State (44)

Southern (1): Charleston (93)

Southland (1): Texas A&M-Corpus Christi (17)

SWAC (1): Jackson State (272)

Summit (1): Oakland (74)

Sun Belt (1): Arkansas State (168)

West Coast (1): Gonzaga (13)

WAC (1): Louisiana Tech (53)

------------------------------
Non-BCS At-Larges (9): Temple (12), New Mexico (16), Rhode Island (20), Dayton (29), Richmond (31), UAB (35), UNLV (41), VCU (46), Wichita State (61)

Last 4 In: Oklahoma State (36), Ole Miss (42), VCU (46), Wichita State (61)

First 4 Out: Louisville (38), Old Dominion (40), Northwestern (58), Florida (79)

In the Mix (14): Cal (25), St. Mary's (34), San Diego State (43), St. John's (45), Maryland (56), Washington (58), Harvard (59), Minnesota (65), Illinois (66), Notre Dame (67), Marquette (68), Tulsa (76), Oklahoma (77), Memphis (87)

Next Field of 65 Projection: Monday, January 25th

 

[Blizzard]

In the Mix (14): Cal (25), St. Mary's (34), San Diego State (43), St. John's (45), Maryland (56), Washington (58), Harvard (59), Minnesota (65), Illinois (66), Notre Dame (67), Marquette (68), Tulsa (76), Oklahoma (77), Memphis (87)

Aside from beating Michigan State what will the Gophers have to do to move off of the " in the mix " list?

 

[SelectionSunday]

There's no such thing as a "magic number", but I still think -- looking at the at-large landscape this season -- 11-7 in Big 10 regular-season play will safely land the Gophers in the NCAA Tournament, no matter what happens in Indy.

The bad news is the inexcusable loss to a horrible Indiana team makes getting to 11 wins a lot more daunting. It will be a bad loss at the end of the season because there's no way IU will end up in the top 100.

The good news is, if the Gophers get to that number of 11 before the BTT it's more likely to include a larger amount of quality wins. In the end, I believe the Selection Committee looks more at quality wins (who you beat) than bad losses. Even so, if I'm the Gophers I wouldn't leave it to chance by losing another one to an Iowa, Indiana or Penn State. A bad loss or two happens to most all the bubble teams (that's why they're on the bubble), but more than that?

Please note, I base everything on what I think the Gophers need to do to feel (NCAA) safe heading into the BTT. Certainly going, say, 10-8 in the Big 10 and winning a game or two in Indy is another way they could get into the the field. I'll be honest, after Sunday we look much more NIT-caliber than NCAA-caliber. If we lose Saturday to MSU and if we do indeed lose a player or two to academics, this season could spiral out of control real quick. The Big 10's just too good to survive all that crap.