Field of 65 Projection (3/8/10)/7 available bids

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SelectionSunday

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As of Monday morning I have 19 teams jostling for 7 available bids. So far everything's good on the "bid stealer" front. ... no upsets in the conference tournaments. Here's a look at this week's field. I'll update the "available bids" every day this week, but this will be my final projection until the finale early Sunday morning.

Joe Lunardi and I currently have 1 difference. He has Memphis "in", in their place I have William & Mary. I'm back on the Bill & Mary train, thought it may be a quick ride. If it came down to thesoe 2 for 1 bid, I'd take W&M's resume over Memphis'. And as far as conferences go, there's really no difference between Conference USA and the Colonial.

Teams in bold have already earned automatic bids.

Automatics (31)
1. Kansas (1)
2. Duke (2)
3. Kentucky (3)
4. Syracuse (4)
5. New Mexico (7)
6. Temple (15)
7. Butler (17)
8. Northern Iowa (18)
9. Cal (20)
10. Ohio State (29)
11. Utah State (32)
12. Old Dominion (33)
13. Gonzaga (34)
14. Siena (37)
15. UTEP (41)
16. Kent State (42)
17. Cornell (48)
18. Murray State (60)
19. Oakland (61)
20. Wofford (73)
21. Weber State (77)
22. Sam Houston State (79)
23. UCSB (101)
24. Morgan State (105)
25. Troy (113)
26. East Tennessee State (121)
27. Vermont (129)
28. Quinnipiac (133)
29. Winthrop (157)
30. Lehigh (160)
31. Jackson State (189)

Locks (27)
1. West Virginia (5)
2. Kansas State (6)
3. Baylor (8)
4. Villanova (9)
5. Pitt (10)
6. Purdue (11)
7. Texas A&M (12)
8. Tennessee (13)
9. Georgetown (14)
10. Wisconsin (16)
11. Maryland (19)
12. Xavier (21)
13. Vanderbilt (22)
14. BYU (23)
15. Richmond (24)
16. Michigan State (25)
17. Texas (26)
18. Clemson (27)
19. Oklahoma State (28)
20. Louisville (30)
21. Wake Forest (31)
22. Florida State (35)
23. Missouri (38)
24. UNLV (47)
25. Virginia Tech (50)
26. Marquette (58)
27. Notre Dame (59)

On the Bubble (19 teams fighting for 7 available bids)
1. San Diego State (36) -- IN
2. Rhode Island (39)
3. UAB (40)
4. St. Mary's (43) -- IN
5. Georgia Tech (44) -- IN
6. Wichita State (45) -- season complete
7. Memphis (46)
8. Washington (49)
9. Dayton (51)
10. Florida (52) -- IN
11. Arizona (State (53) -- IN
12. Seton Hall (55)
13. William & Mary (56) -- IN
14. Ole Miss (57)
15. South Florida (63)
16. Mississippi State (69)
17. Illinois (75) -- IN
18. GOPHERS (78)
19. Saint Louis (83)

Non-BCS At-Larges (7): Xavier (21), BYU (23), Richmond (24), San Diego State (36), St. Mary's (43), UNLV (47), William & Mary (56)

Last 4 In: San Diego State (36), Georgia Tech (44), William & Mary (56), Illinois (75)

First 4 Out: UAB (40), Memphis (46), Washington (49), Ole Miss (57)

In the Mix: Rhode Island (39), Wichita State (45), Dayton (51), Seton Hall (55), South Florida (63), Mississippi State (69), GOPHERS (78), Saint Louis (83)
 

Any chance the Gophers get in with wins over PSU and MSU?
 

A chance, but very slight in my opinion. To have a fighter's chance I think it'll need to be an appearance in the finals with a path of MSU and then Purdue. We need top-50 wins, not just wins.

Obviously (assuming the Gophers get to the semis to give us a sniff), a lot depends on what happens elsewhere. What would really help is if at least a few bubblers like Illinois, Georgia Tech, Arizona State, Washington, Florida, Ole Miss, UAB, Memphis, San Diego State, etc., get dumped in their 1st game @ their conference tourneys.
 

Semi's is a given, Florida and Illinois losing right away would help the cause.
 

Illinois in? I am not so sure. If they lose to Wisconsin they have lost 6 of last 7.
 


Illinois

Still in, but certainly the Illini are sending the wrong message at this point. I don't see how the Selection Committee will take them if they lose again to Bucky.

The fact that I still have the Illini in is another testament to the softness of the teams on the bubble.
 


Similar to what I think about the Gophers, if either Cincinnati or UCONN could reach the finals of the Big East Tourney, they would amazingly put themselves back into the discussion.
 

UConn and Cincy

"Similar to what I think about the Gophers, if either Cincinnati or UCONN could reach the finals of the Big East Tourney, they would amazingly put themselves back into the discussion."

I agree. The thing preventing me from keeping Cincy and UConn in the mix is their 7-11 conference record. Just can't justify it.

But as you point out, that certainly changes if either one is still playing @ MSG on Saturday, maybe even Friday (semis). I'd prefer both go out meekly so I don't have to reconsider. Truth is, Cincy has as good of a pair of nonconference wins as anyone (Vanderbilt and Maryland), but those are their only top-50 wins.
 



BTN quoted Jerry Palm saying that Illinois needs to win the BTT to get in now.
 

Illinois

I would strongly disagree with Jerry's assessment. The Illini are a trainwreck right now, for sure, but I still think they'll have a solid case (relative to other teams on the bubble) provided they beat the Badgers on Friday. Lose to the Badgers, and in all likelihood they're toast.
 

SelectionSunday said:
I would strongly disagree with Jerry's assessment. The Illini are a trainwreck right now, for sure, but I still think they'll have a solid case (relative to other teams on the bubble) provided they beat the Badgers on Friday. Lose to the Badgers, and in all likelihood they're toast.
Click to expand...

So you have once again put us in the horrible position of perhaps needing to cheer for the Badgers? Yuk!

Let's just win the whole thing this weekend and leave nothing to chance. :)
 

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