"Field of 65" Projection (3/1/10)

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SelectionSunday

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Folks, thanks to a marshmallow soft bubble, the Gophers are a lot closer to a bid than a lot of people think. I'm even more convinced now than I was before that 11-7 in the Big Ten regular season would have been lock city heading to Indy. ... da*n, that's all water under the bridge now, I guess. I digress.

The Gophers are right there if they finish 10-8. I'll leave it at that. Win their last two regular season games and it's going to be a "white knuckler" of a Big Ten Tournament for Gopher fans. Who would have dared thought that after the Michigan tank job, the Northwestern collapse, or the Purdue heartbreaker. ...?

The Gophers (and all those on the bubble) can be thankful there just aren't many teams in the hunt for the final 7-8 bids that will be available when Championship Week heats up this week. Please remember, the bubble will shrink by at least a few bids if the likes of Butler, Northern Iowa, Utah State, etc., fail to win their conference tournaments.

Joe Lunardi and I currently have 2 differences. He has San Diego State and Virginia Tech "in", in their place I have Dayton and Notre Dame.

*Denotes conference leader or (would be) #1 seed if conference tournament were held today.

America East (1): Stony Brook (131)

ACC (6): *Duke (2), Maryland (25), Clemson (27), Wake Forest (29), Georgia Tech (33), Florida State (42)

Atlantic Sun (1): Lipscomb (196)

Atlantic 10 (4): Xavier (12), *Temple (19), Richmond (28), Dayton (41)

Big East (9): *Syracuse (3), West Virginia (6), Villanova (8), Pitt (9), Georgetown (13), Louisville (32), UConn (44), Marquette (49), Notre Dame (68)

Big Sky (1): Weber State (79)

Big South (1): Coastal Carolina (121)

Big 10 (5): Purdue (10), Wisconsin (18), Michigan State (22), *Ohio State (31), Illinois (73)

Big 12 (7): *Kansas (1), Kansas State (5), Baylor (11), Texas A&M (14), Texas (24), Oklahoma State (26), Missouri (36)

Big West (1): UCSB (105)

Colonial (1): Old Dominion (38)

Conference USA (2): UAB (35), *UTEP (50)

Horizon (1): Butler (17)

Ivy (1): Cornell (47)

Metro Atlantic (1): Siena (40)

Mid-American (1): Kent State (48)

MEAC (1): Morgan State (107)

Missouri Valley (1): Northern Iowa (20)

Mountain West (3): *New Mexico (7), BYU (23), UNLV (43)

Northeast (1): Quinnipiac (143)

Ohio Valley (1): Murray State (69)

Pac 10 (1): Cal (21)

Patriot (1): Lehigh (169)

SEC (5): *Kentucky (4), Tennessee (15), Vanderbilt (16), Florida (46), Mississippi State (56)

Southern (1): Wofford (78)

Southland (1): Sam Houston State (74)

SWAC (1): Jackson State (216)

Summit (1): Oakland (61)

Sun Belt (1): Troy (120)

West Coast (2): *Gonzaga (30), St. Mary's (45)

WAC (1): Utah State (34)


Non-BCS At-Large Bids (7): Xavier (12), BYU (23), Richmond (28), UAB (35), Dayton (41), UNLV (43), St. Mary's (45)

Last 4 In: Dayton (41), UConn (44), Mississippi State (56), Notre Dame (68)

First 4 Out: Rhode Island (37), San Diego State (39), Virginia Tech (52), Minnesota (70)

Still in the Mix: Washington (53), Arizona State (54), Ole Miss (55), Cincinnati (58), Charlotte (62), Seton Hall (63), South Florida (67), Saint Louis (87)

Next Field of 65 Projection: Monday, March 8
 

SS,

At what point does/could/would Minnesota replace Illinois as the 5th team from the Big 10?

Illinois still confuses me. They have an RPI of 73 yet in the last AP poll they were about middle of the pack for other teams receiving votes.
 

I think if the Gophers win 2 this week and the Illini lose 2 this week, we'll pass them not only in terms of Big Ten Tournament seeding but more importantly in the overall bubble pecking order.

That said, even though we beat them head to head (and at their place), I can't ignore their wins over Vanderbilt and @ Clemson during the nonconference season. If Illinois wins one of these last 2, they're a lock for the tournament at 11-7. I can't say the same about the Gophers. ... they need both games just to get to 10-8 and remain a viable at-large candidate.
 

SS - its going to be a wild week. Thanks for the Monday fodder.

I realize its secondary, but I was noticing NWU sitting right at RPI 100 along with Miami and Morgan St. As far as the famous "vs RPI Top 100" should we be concerned about them slipping out of the top 100?
 

Pretty much all these bubble teams have bad losses (to opponents with RPI of #101 or higher). When it gets down to selecting the last few teams, I don't look much at bad losses. I want to know who teams beat. That said, obviously I'd prefer that Northwestern, Miami, Portland, etc., all be in the top 100. Especially Northwestern. ... the Gophers need as many top-100 wins as possible (it's an area we're already a little shy), and currently the Wildcats are sitting at #100 on the nose.
 


Eye Test

Hodger, I can't help but think about last season and how the Gophers floundered in the last weeks of the season, and very honestly were failing the "eye" test going into selection time. But the numbers were there, and a bid was a lock.

I am just seeing things the exact opposite way this time around. The numbers aren't there this season, but the last two weeks they really have passed the "eye" test, even with the loss to the Boilers. I don't see how any committee member could see the last two weeks and not believe that this team could make noise in the tournament, despite the low RPI. Such is the peril of an NCAA (and particularly Gopher) fan.

Keeping me on the nervous side is that conference tournaments tend to have less impact than we might think. It does not seem as though the committee treats a big win in the tourney the same way as it does in the regular season. It's just a gut feel. I think we better hope some of the other bubblers falter, as well as take care of business.

Beat Michigan.

Finally, I must get this dig in, with such a weak bubble, how in the world can anyone justify expanding the tournament?
 

"Finally, I must get this dig in, with such a weak bubble, how in the world can anyone justify expanding the tournament?"

My thoughts exactly, Holy Man. All the more reason to capitalize on the opportunity these last couple weeks. Some years the bubble is strong, some it's weak. No need to apologize for receiving an at-large bid in either scenario.

That said, this year is the perfect example of why the tournament should not be expanded. If we're completely honest with ourselves, the way the Gophers (and a lot of other teams) have played most of the season they're not that deserving of a bid. ... but they still may get one anyways.
 

I realize the Pac 10 is terrible (and very justifiably so), but has there ever been a point since the field expanded to 64/65 when a "BCS" league has had only one bid?
 

SelectionSunday said:
"Finally, I must get this dig in, with such a weak bubble, how in the world can anyone justify expanding the tournament?"

My thoughts exactly, Holy Man. All the more reason to capitalize on the opportunity these last couple weeks. Some years the bubble is strong, some it's weak. No need to apologize for receiving an at-large bid in either scenario.

That said, this year is the perfect example of why the tournament should not be expanded. If we're completely honest with ourselves, the way the Gophers (and a lot of other teams) have played most of the season they're not that deserving of a bid. ... but they still may get one anyways.
Click to expand...

From our lips to the NCAA's ears. In a 96 team field, every team on the 'still alive' list would be a lock and teams like Northwestern would be very much alive. I'm glad the Gophers are still fighting, but the idea that after this 'semi-disaster-of-a-season' they would still basically be a lock in future years means the regular season is meaningless, just like the NBA or NHL. That's in addition to severely damaging the tournament itself. I pray the NCAA has on ounce of sense on this matter.
 



SS, how secure would the Gophers bid be if they'd beaten Purdue? I know we shouldn't live in 'what-if' land but since it's the most recent, I can't help it. Thier RPI would surely be somewhere in the 58-63 range, and I have to think not only would they be in, but safe from the 'last 4 in list'?
 

howeda7 said:
From our lips to the NCAA's ears. In a 96 team field, every team on the 'still alive' list would be a lock and teams like Northwestern would be very much alive. I'm glad the Gophers are still fighting, but the idea that after this 'semi-disaster-of-a-season' they would still basically be a lock in future years means the regular season is meaningless, just like the NBA or NHL. That's in addition to severely damaging the tournament itself. I pray the NCAA has on ounce of sense on this matter.
Click to expand...

Touche, Howeda. I think those looking at expansion fail to realize that they will water down the regular season in a big way if 32 more teams are allowed in, damaging gate receipts, etc. We already have an open tournemament in the form of conference tournaments. Every team in the country has a chance to make it.
 

What-ifs

Hard not to think about the Purdue game (or the Texas A&M game, or the the Indiana game, or the MSU game, or the Northwestern game, etc.), but I don't worry about the what-ifs, only what lies ahead. All these teams have games they'd like to have back. That's why they are where they are.
 

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