FBS Playoffs and SEC Scenarios

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Sparlimb

Sparlimb

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Wouldn't it now be fun if Auburn beats Alabama and Ole Miss beats Mississippi St? Then the SEC West champ would, at best, have 2 losses. Not that crazy of a scenario. We'd have to guess that likely Bama wins out and makes it.

My projection as of this week:

1. Florida St (they aren't the best team, but still undefeated)
2. Alabama (Best 1 loss team)
3. Oregon
4. TCU

So Ohio St. still needs 2 of TCU, Baylor and Oregon to lose.
 

1. Alabama
2. Florida State
3. Oregon
4.Miss St

Bama beat the #1 ranked team and will jump FSU who struggled with Miami.
TCU struggled with Kansas and will probably drop to 6 or 7, behind Baylor and possibly OSU.
Miss St will drop from 1 to 4, losing to a highly ranked Bama squad.
 

1. Alabama
2. Oregon
3. FSU
4. Mississippi State

If it wins out Ohio State will pass TCU for sure and perhaps Baylor.
 

I think OSU is a shoe in if they win out and play a 10-2 Badger team. They will need help if they play MN or Nebraska.
 

SelectionSunday said:
1. Alabama
2. Oregon
3. FSU
4. Mississippi State

If it wins out Ohio State will pass TCU for sure and perhaps Baylor.
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We played both. TCU was better in the games I saw. That said, Ohio St has the name and so you are likely right.
 


Sparlimb said:
Wouldn't it now be fun if Auburn beats Alabama and Ole Miss beats Mississippi St? Then the SEC West champ would, at best, have 2 losses. Not that crazy of a scenario. We'd have to guess that likely Bama wins out and makes it.

My projection as of this week:

1. Florida St (they aren't the best team, but still undefeated)
2. Alabama (Best 1 loss team)
3. Oregon
4. TCU

So Ohio St. still needs 2 of TCU, Baylor and Oregon to lose.
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Even better, Alabama loses to Auburn but Mississippi St. wins out. Missouri also wins out and they somehow beat Mississippi St. Therefore, the SEC champion would be worse than the worst Big Ten team (Indiana). Ha!
 

Sparlimb said:
We played both. TCU was better in the games I saw. That said, Ohio St has the name and so you are likely right.
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I don't know, I think OSU is playing as good as anyone right now.
 

SelectionSunday said:
1. Alabama
2. Oregon
3. FSU
4. Mississippi State

If it wins out Ohio State will pass TCU for sure and perhaps Baylor.
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Just curious how a 1 loss big ten east division team passes 2 1 loss big 12 teams. How do you figure?
 

jpraml said:
1. Alabama
2. Florida State
3. Oregon
4.Miss St

Bama beat the #1 ranked team and will jump FSU who struggled with Miami.
TCU struggled with Kansas and will probably drop to 6 or 7, behind Baylor and possibly OSU.
Miss St will drop from 1 to 4, losing to a highly ranked Bama squad.
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Are we forgetting that Alabama beat Arkansas by 1 whole point while only scoring 14? I get it, TCU struggled vs a very bad Kansas team, but they still got the win. TCU's loss is still better than Alabama's loss.
 



There are going to be a bunch of ticked off fan bases this year. Can't have a playoff without auto bids. You can't compare conferences on one game.
 

afurry91 said:
Just curious how a 1 loss big ten east division team passes 2 1 loss big 12 teams. How do you figure?
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Not that far fetched at all. Let's say OSU finishes 12-1, Baylor 11-1, TCU 11-1. A very plausible, I'd say likely scenario:

12-1 OSU finishes 3-0 vs. top 25 with 2 of those wins occurring away from Columbus (@ MSU, vs. Wisconsin). Other top 25 win becomes Cincinnati, which likely will finish 9-3. Also will have 2 nonconference wins over bowl teams (Navy, Toledo). Loss is a bad one, but not as bad as it looks now, as Va Tech likely finishes 7-5. That's Bucks' biggest albatross, can they be forgiven for that loss?

Baylor finishes 11-1 with 3-1 record vs. top 25. T-25 wins are TCU, K-State, and @ Oklahoma. Only loss is @ 8-4 West Virginia. No nonconference wins of any consequence.

TCU finishes 11-1 with 2-1 record vs. top 25, with both of those at home (K-State, Oklahoma). Only loss is on the road at Baylor, yes, but does a team whose best win is over a likely 9-3 squad really that deserving of a bid? Frogs also would have a nonconference win over a bowl team (Gophers).

In this scenario, I'd order these teams (1) OSU, (2) Baylor, (3) TCU. TCU last easily because none of their best wins were away from home. The truly elite teams have a high-quality win away from home.

Not to mention, OSU would be an undefeated outright conference champion (with an extra win required by conference title game), Baylor/TCU would only be 1-loss co-champs and would not have had to win that extra game.
 

SelectionSunday said:
Not that far fetched at all. Let's say OSU finishes 12-1, Baylor 11-1, TCU 11-1. A very plausible, I'd say likely scenario:

12-1 OSU finishes 3-0 vs. top 25 with 2 of those wins occurring away from Columbus (@ MSU, vs. Wisconsin). Other top 25 win becomes Cincinnati, which likely will finish 9-3. Also will have 2 nonconference wins over bowl teams (Navy, Toledo). Loss is a bad one, but not as bad as it looks now, as Va Tech likely finishes 7-5. That's Bucks' biggest albatross, can they be forgiven for that loss?

Baylor finishes 11-1 with 3-1 record vs. top 25. T-25 wins are TCU, K-State, and @ Oklahoma. Only loss is @ 8-4 West Virginia. No nonconference wins of any consequence.

TCU finishes 11-1 with 2-1 record vs. top 25, with both of those at home (K-State, Oklahoma). Only loss is on the road at Baylor, yes, but does a team whose best win is over a likely 9-3 squad really that deserving of a bid? Frogs also would have a nonconference win over a bowl team (Gophers).

In this scenario, I'd order these teams (1) OSU, (2) Baylor, (3) TCU. TCU last easily because none of their best wins were away from home. The truly elite teams win away from home.
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SS, this is football not basketball. TCU can't be blamed their schedule didn't call for top 10 teams on the road. And in my mind, they were the better team at Baylor. We cannot, however, discount the fact they played and lost the actual game. I don't disagree with your rankings of the 3 teams, but think Ohio St will get the nod based on name recognition and not actual on the field performance. Which will lead to screaming. Granted we'll get a ton of it anyway. Can't wait, since it isn't us being left out in the cold. I'd be more than happy to see Mr. Smugness himself (Urban my boy) be left home at 12-1.
 

Agree that it's different than hoops, but I'd be willing to bet they use a lot of the same principles. In the end, if these 3 are that close, the committee will really have to crunch the numbers. I'm just pointing out that OSU's resume would be right there with the 2 Big XII teams.
 



SelectionSunday said:
Agree that it's different than hoops, but I'd be willing to bet they use a lot of the same principles. In the end, if these 3 are that close, the committee will really have to crunch the numbers. I'm just pointing out that OSU's resume would be right there with the 2 Big XII teams.
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It's nice to hear someone else's opinion. I think where you and I differ is that you assign a greater emphasis on quality wins, and I assign a greater emphasis on bad losses. You also look at the rankings at the end of the season rather than at the time of the game.

Yes, personally, I think the Virginia Tech loss is unforgivable. It's the worst loss of any of the contenders. The question is does the committee cut them some slack for their QB situation early in the season?

I also personally believe Ohio State's schedule overall to just be atrocious. There are so many gimme games in the conference schedule that it's tough to take them seriously with that loss to Virginia Tech. Maryland, Rutgers, Penn State, Indiana, Illinois, Michigan are 6 just bad opponents to put it simply. It's hard to gain respect when that is 75% of your conference schedule. The Big Ten is not terrible as a whole, but the East division is really just a joke 3 through 7.

There is something to be said about beating teams when they are ranked. You don't know how you have altered someone's season after you beat them and in several cases with TCU, crushed them. I believe there is a reason ESPN's team schedules show ranking opponent ranking at time of the game. TCU has crushed some very good teams, and sit with 1 loss. Ohio State has crushed some very bad teams, crushed no good teams, and have a terrible loss. They have had to get up for two games this year (MSU and us) which is easier to do when you have been able to sleepwalk through most of September and all of October. I give the edge to TCU. Maybe if two of Ohio State's last three games weren't Indiana and Michigan, I'd like them a little better, but I don't think they can jump from 8 to 4 with their remaining schedule pending some chaos in the final two weeks.
 


Unless some of the presumptive non-SEC conference champs take a real nose dive, it would be a travesty for there to be two SEC teams.
 

I'm sure there will be some upset teams after the committee picks their 4 teams, but there would be several very upset one loss teams if only 2 teams were able to play for the national championship this year.
 

matt said:
I'm sure there will be some upset teams after the committee picks their 4 teams, but there would be several very upset one loss teams if only 2 teams were able to play for the national championship this year.
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I agree and would take it further that 8 teams is needed. Have to have the 5 auto bids. I don't care if the Big Ten Champ gets killed in a quarterfinal it at least puts every conference on an equal footing. Win your division and champ game and you are in.

Is this really a 12 year deal or can it be changed is "ESPN" wants to change it?
 



WorkingMyTailOff said:
Is there any possible scenario where the SEC gets zero? That would be delicious!
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(1) Ole Miss loses to Arkansas (this one doesn't have to happen but would help);

(2) Alabama loses to Auburn;

(3) Mississippi State loses to Ole Miss; and

(4) probably most importantly. ... East winner Georgia/Missouri beats West winner. Optimum scenario would be Mizzou -- a team that lost to winless-in-Big-Ten Indiana -- winning the SEC. How could the SEC wonks explain that one away?

Even then the SEC might get a bid, but it wouldn't be a shoo-in. All would have at least 2 losses.
 

Absolutely. Mississippi State loses to Ole Miss & Mizzou ends up winning the east & winning the SEC title game.

With FSU & Oregon being in if they don't lose again (Oregon may in Pac-12 title game, FSU will not), suddenly there's only 2 spots left. With the TCU/Baylor debate along with Ohio State, I have a lot of difficulty seeing a 2 loss SEC make it.
 

Yes, we are all Missouri fans now.
 

FireDaveLee said:
Absolutely. Mississippi State loses to Ole Miss & Mizzou ends up winning the east & winning the SEC title game.

With FSU & Oregon being in if they don't lose again (Oregon may in Pac-12 title game, FSU will not), suddenly there's only 2 spots left. With the TCU/Baylor debate along with Ohio State, I have a lot of difficulty seeing a 2 loss SEC make it.
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I think a 2 loss SEC team is a lock.

But that's just me.
 

I think the SEC gets one team in the playoff, unless the chaos scenario outlined above plays out. Even then, a 2-loss Alabama might get in.

Whether they get 1, 2, or even 0 teams into the playoff, the SEC will be well-represented in the New Year's bowls. Right now, I foresee them getting four teams into those six games: Alabama, Mississippi State, Georgia and Mississippi. Arizona State's loss to Oregon State really hurt the Pac-12's chances of landing a second team in those games, and might end up leaving that conference with two extra bowl-eligible teams.
 

I get not wanting an SEC team in. I would rather see bama get in and lose to Ohio state, Oregon, or TCU.

If an SEC team doesn't get in then the whole country has to listen to the media whine again next year. If they lose, the bias goes away.
 

Some guy said:
I get not wanting an SEC team in. I would rather see bama get in and lose to Ohio state, Oregon, or TCU.

If an SEC team doesn't get in then the whole country has to listen to the media whine again next year. If they lose, the bias goes away.
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Them losing both of their BCS games last year didn't stop it. My ideal is one SEC team gets in (preferably the one that lost to the Big Ten bottom feeder), and then they get lit up.
 


Some guy said:
If an SEC team doesn't get in then the whole country has to listen to the media whine again next year. If they lose, the bias goes away.
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Yes, but then the outcry for an 8 team playoff will be MUCH louder.
 

It'll take a multi year championship drought to stop the bias. They won 7 national titles in a row and dominated BCS bowls during that stretch. The bias is warranted in many cases.

If they go 4-5 years without winning a title (or win just one) and start going .500 instead of .700 in BCS bowls, then we'll see the bias start to die down.
 

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