Expanding on your thread, Gophers in Iowa, since 2000-01, which I believe was the last great Duke team (Jay Williams, Boozer, Dunleavy, Battier) here is what has occurred in the tournament in the last 11 NCAA tournaments:
2001-02: #1 seed, loses in Sweet Sixteen round to Indiana (#5 seed)
2002-03: #3 seed, loses in Sweet Sixteen round to Kansas (#2 seed)
2003-04: #1 seed, loses in Final Four to Connecticut (#2 seed)
2004-05: #1 seed, loses in Sweet Sixteen round to Michigan St. (#5 seed)
2005-06: #1 seed, loses in Sweet Sixteen round to LSU (#4 seed)
2006-07: #6 seed, loses in first round to VCU (#11 seed)
2007-08: #2 seed, loses in second round to West Virginia (#7 seed)
2008-09: #2 seed, loses in Sweet Sixteen round to Villanova (#3 seed)
2009-10: #1 seed, National Champs
2010-11: #1 seed, loses in Sweet Sixteen round to Arizona (#5 seed)
2011-12: #2 seed, loses in first round to Lehigh (#15 seed)
Final Tally over 11 yr period (assuming #1 seed expected to Final Four, #2 seed to Elite Eight, etc.):
Overperformed to seed: 1 year (2009-10)
Performed to seed: 2 years (2002-03; 2003-04)
Underperformed to seed: 8 years
National Champs: 1 year; Final Four: 2 years; Elite Eights: 3 years; Sweet Sixteen: 9 years
How does that compare to other programs of note in those 11 years?
UNC: 2 national championships; 3 Final Fours, 5 Elite Eights, 7 Sweet Sixteens
Michigan St: 3 Final Fours; 4 Elite Eights, 5 Sweet Sixteen
UCLA: 4 Final Fours; 4 Elite Eights, 5 Sweet Sixteen
UConn: 2 national championships; 1 Final Four; 5 Elite Eights; 6 Sweet Sixteen
Syracuse: 1 national championship; 1 Final Four, 1 Elite Eight, 4 Sweet Sixteens
Kentucky: 1 Final Four; 4 Elite Eights, 5 Sweet Sixteen
Kansas: 1 national championship; 3 Final Fours; 6 Elite Eights; 7 Sweet Sixteens
While Duke has got the other big boys beat on the Sweet Sixteens, they lag behind everyone on this list in Elite Eights (except Syracuse). What does that tell us? That over the last eleven years, except for their national championship in 2010, they have not risen up against the other big boys of the NCAA. In fact, if not for that championship season, the last three NCAA appearances have ended in embarrassment for the Dukies-two blowout losses to Villanova and Arizona and a loss to #15 Lehigh (which didn't look fluky at all-in fact, it seemed that Lehigh left quite a few points on the floor last night).
More and more, Coach K seems to be emulating his mentor, Bob Knight. I mean that in this context-Knight was at the top of his profession from about the mid '70s to mid '80s (from '73 to '84: 2 National Championships, 3 Final Fours, 5 Elite Eights, 7 Sweet Sixteens, 7 Big Ten titles). Over the next 10 years, Knight continued to win, but not at the same elite clip ('85 to '94: 1 National Championship, 2 Final Fours, 3 Elite Eights, 5 Sweet Sixteens, 4 Big Ten Titles). After '94, Knight never made it to the Sweet Sixteen with Indiana nor finished first in the Big Ten (in his remaining six years as Indiana head coach).
Coach K had an amazing 15 year run from 1986 to 2001 that included 3 National Championships, 9 Final Fours, 10 Elite Eights, and 12 Sweet Sixteens. I think there's a strong argument there that it's as impressive as UCLA's national championship streak. However, the next eleven years, laid out above, has shown a leveling off of Duke's superiority to the rest of the college basketball world. Three of the last four years they have been embarrassed in the NCAA tourney. Are those years the aberration or was the '10 N.C. the aberration?
