Evaluations/Expectations

bleedsmaroonandgold

Well-known member
Joined
Oct 5, 2011
Messages
7,066
Reaction score
2,325
Points
113
I think I said on a thread earlier this year that I evaluate the team against the following four metrics in order of importance to me: 1) postseason results (both how we did and whether or not it was an improvement from the year before), 2) B1G tournament (again, absolute performance and improvement), 3) B1G standings (absolute performance and improvement), and 4) performance against Wisconsin and Iowa (I don't really care about tracking year to year improvement on this one, I hate losing to those two teams and I love beating them though). Now that the year is done, I figured I would analyze how they did against those measuring sticks and what I expect to see next year.

1) Postseason play: NIT runner up. It was a fun run to watch in the NIT, but the fact of the matter is we were in a position to make that run because we failed to qualify for the tournament that I expect us to. However, we still qualified for a tournament we missed last season and then won 4 games, including 3 on the road. A definite improvement from last season. With Royce White going pro, next season, the only player we will not have due to transfers is Justin Cobbs, and we will have Trevor Mbakwe who we would not have had had it not been for his injury last year. Mbakwe>Cobbs, so we are actually in a better position due to transfers and injuries next season, so with the deck stacked in our favor, I expect us to be one of the last 32 teams standing in the NCAA, and if we fail to make the big dance, I will consider it a very disappointing season.

2) B1G Tournament: quarterfinals. Satisfactory performance here. 4 teams were eliminated before us, 4 were standing after us, and (including us) 4 were eliminated at the same time. In that respect, we were dead center in the toughest conference in college ball, so that is a respectable performance. Also, an improvement from last season when we were eliminated in the first round. We were one shot in regulation from making the semis, so for improvement to continue (especially with the good team we expect next year), I expect us to get that shot and make the semis next season.

3) B1G regular season: Tied for ninth, 6-12 (last season: ninth, 6-12). Could have been worse, but no improvement here, and frankly a very disappointing result. Next season, I expect us in the top half of the conference with 6th year Trevor, a Rodney who did not declare for the draft, and talented juniors and sophomores who will have a lot of minutes under their belts.

4) Wisco and Iowa: 0-4. Ouch. Couldn't have been worse. I don't know if we play them both twice or not next season, but I expect us not to lose to Iowa and to beat the Grinch at Williams if we seem them at home (they won't have Taylor, we have 6th year Trevor). Its always tough to play at the Kohl Center.



I am curious for anyone else's thoughts on how they evaluate the team, and what they think of this year versus what they expect next year.
 

4) Wisco and Iowa: 0-4. Ouch. Couldn't have been worse. I don't know if we play them both twice or not next season, but I expect us not to lose to Iowa and to beat the Grinch at Williams if we seem them at home (they won't have Taylor, we have 6th year Trevor). Its always tough to play at the Kohl Center.

We will play both teams twice next season.

Next season the single-plays will be @ Ohio State and @ Purdue, home only vs. Michigan and Penn State. It's a long ways away, but that could work in our favor. I wouldn't expect Ohio State and Purdue to be anywhere near as good as they were this past season, though they'll still be formidable (especially OSU).
 

Next season is going to be monumental for Gopher basketball.

Expectations will be, maybe unfairly, high. Minnesota will be expected to finish top 3 in the B1G, assuming Mbakwe is back.

If Tubby doesn't win--- his job will be on the line and I think recruiting will be impacted.

If Tubby does win--- it sure sounds like there is some momentum building for the practice facility he says he needs and even a Sweet 16 run in the NCAA might be a tipping point that helps get some dirt moving.
 

Next season is going to be monumental for Gopher basketball.

Expectations will be, maybe unfairly, high. Minnesota will be expected to finish top 3 in the B1G, assuming Mbakwe is back.

If Tubby doesn't win--- his job will be on the line and I think recruiting will be impacted.

If Tubby does win--- it sure sounds like there is some momentum building for the practice facility he says he needs and even a Sweet 16 run in the NCAA might be a tipping point that helps get some dirt moving.

I really doubt that Tubby will be put on the hot seat if he has his best season here - 10-8 with 1 NCAA Tourney win. That would have put us in 6th place this season and not that close to the top 3. I sure am looking forward to next season though...

Is it November yet?
 

Simple formula: Cut our TO's in half, and continue to shoot a 70+ FT %. IF that happens next year, this team will do well.
 


Wait, who is seriously putting the Gophers as a favorite to finish in the Top 3? I say Top half, but not top 3...
 

A way too early look at the 2012-13 B1G standings? At this point I'm assuming Illinois will lose Leonard, Zeller returns for Indiana, Burke & Hardaway return to Michigan, Minnesota will have Mbakwe and Williams, and Ohio State loses Sullinger (but keeps Thomas).

1. Indiana
2. Michigan State
3. Michigan
4. Wisconsin
5. Ohio State
6. Minnesota
7. Iowa
8. Purdue
9. Illinois
10. Northwestern
11. Penn State
12. Nebraska
 

If Burke and Hardaway return, I bet Michigan finishes ahead of MSU. McGary and Glenn Robinson III are huge additions. We'll see though, Izzo is a hell of a coach.
 

A way too early look at the 2012-13 B1G standings? At this point I'm assuming Illinois will lose Leonard, Zeller returns for Indiana, Burke & Hardaway return to Michigan, Minnesota will have Mbakwe and Williams, and Ohio State loses Sullinger (but keeps Thomas).

1. Indiana
2. Michigan State
3. Michigan
4. Wisconsin
5. Ohio State
6. Minnesota
7. Iowa
8. Purdue
9. Illinois
10. Northwestern
11. Penn State
12. Nebraska
This is about what I'm thinking as well, but I would put Iowa at 8 and Purdue at 7. I couldn't give you an actual reason, I just trust Painter to have a solid team.
 



I can't see Wisconsin finishing ahead of Ohio State, they'll have a solid front, but they lose their only talanted guard in Taylor, I see them battling Minnesota for 5th, Purdue will be young, so I can see them taking a dip in the standings, but I think seven teams will make the dance and Purdue will be on the bubble
 

A lot of our numbers this year are OK. We out shot our opponents 46 percent to 41 thuogh on 3s its just 36-35. We out-rebounded 'em 35-31 though offensive boards are about even at 11 each. We had about 15 turnovers per game to 14 and the opponents had an extra steal. So I would look for improvement on 1) turnovers, 2) offensive boards and 3) 3 point shooting differential, I don't care if it comes on offense or defense.
 




Top Bottom