Estimated Season With Royce White - Based on his Sabermetric Projection

Donate To GopherHole
M

Missed-layup

Junior Member, a Senior Mind
Joined
Jan 17, 2010
Messages
304
Reaction score
0
Points
16
The following is a new sabermetric projection borrowed from baseball statisticians that looks at the impact one player could have on the final outcome of a basketball game. This is a new technology and not a proven statistical methodology. This is based on potential projections while accounting for the offensive capabilities of the player(Op1) who is analyzed, subtracted from teammates who might not be playing due to this players addition(Sp1+sp2+sp3...) and the defensive projections of the opposing team (DT). A more complicated version has been used in the NBA to analyze the impact of trades on team performance. This does not account for intangibles such as attitude, injuries, substitution adnormalities, coaching styles etc. This projection only loosely accounts for the defensive impact of the player analyzed, as that becomes much more statistically difficult to evaluate. Again this is new technology and not a proven method to predict the outcomes. This is just an indication tool. The following shows the impact Royce White likely would have had on the Gophers season.

.........................................................Actual........... /......................With Royce


Thu, Nov 05 Minnesota Duluth (Exh) - 114 - 47 (W)...........................114-47(w)* *statistical limits hit

Mon, Nov 09 MSU-Moorhead (Exh) - 98 - 49 (W).............................104- 46(w)


Fri, Nov 13 Tennessee Tech 18 - 87 - 50 (W)..............................95 - 46 (W)

Mon, Nov 16 Stephen F. Austin 18 82 - 42 (W)...............................94-38 (W)

Thu, Nov 19 Utah Valley 18 76 - 51 (W)............................... 84 - 46 (W)

Thu, Nov 26 Butler 82 - 73 (W)................................92-73 (W)

Fri, Nov 27 Portland 56 - 61 (L)...................................76-56 (W)

Sun, Nov 29 Texas A&M 65 - 66 (L)....................................85-62(W)

Wed, Dec 02 Miami (Fla.) 58 - 63 (L)....................................74-60 (W)

Sat, Dec 05 Brown - 91 - 55 (W)..................................94-50 (W)

Morgan State 94 - 64 (W)..................................96-50 (W)

Sat, Dec 12 St. Joseph's 97 - 74 (W)..................................101-72 (W)

Tue, Dec 15 Northern Illinois 89 - 48 (W)....................................92-42(W)

Wed, Dec 23 South Dakota State 92 - 62 (W)......................................98 - 58 (W)

Tue, Dec 29 Penn State 75 - 70 (W).....................................88-68 (W)

Sat, Jan 02 Iowa 86 - 74 (W)....................................92-70 (W)

Tue, Jan 05 Purdue 60 - 79 (L).....................................70-72 (L)

Sat, Jan 09 Ohio State 73 - 62 (W)....................................77-58 (W)

Wed, Jan 13 Michigan State 53 - 60 (L) .....................................63-58 (W)

Sun, Jan 17 Indiana = 78 - 81 (L) OT ..................................95- 80 (W)

...............................................14 - 6 .......................................... 19 -1
 

Just when I thought your posts couldn't get any more outlandish...

THE KID HAS NEVER PLAYED A COLLEGIATE GAME!

I don't know how you get your %'s of offensive and defensive "capabilities?" At least baseball and basketball have statistical averages to base their projections on.

Right now Royce has the same collegiate basketball career statistical average as Lady GaGa: 0.0 across the board.
 


All sabermetric projections aside, I could see us being anywhere from 17-3 to 19-1 with Royce
 



A kid that has never played a minute in college causes a 68-point swing (Portland, TA&M, Miami) in just three games? Sorry, not buying it.
 

ShowinGoldyLove said:
Just when I thought your posts couldn't get any more outlandish...

THE KID HAS NEVER PLAYED A COLLEGIATE GAME!

I don't know how you get your %'s of offensive and defensive "capabilities?" At least baseball and basketball have statistical averages to base their projections on.

Right now Royce has the same collegiate basketball career statistical average as Lady GaGa: 0.0 across the board.
Click to expand...

That is a very good point and that is why this is not a proven statistical tool. It is just a projection tool. We really don't know what kind of college player he would be but we do know his ESPN projection was similar to that of the Wall kid at KY, that is why it projected such a high impact on Gopher wins. Like baseball this uses an average player (Par) and adds or subtracts the impact the analyzed player would bring to the team. In Whites case he had a projected high impact +10 rating , similar but slighlty less then Wall as ESPN projeted
 

fan of Ray Williams said:
Could you do a Sabermetric of DePaul's record?
Click to expand...

You probably could based on Tubbys value above Par (above an average coach) if he were to join DePaul. You would just need the right sabermetric tools to do this. That is a good suggestion. It would take time to develop but it could probably be done.
 

Can we see the numbers if LeBron James played for the Gophs? How about Bill Russell or Oscar Robertson?
 



Missed-layup said:
That is a very good point and that is why this is not a proven statistical tool. It is just a projection tool. We really don't know what kind of college player he would be but we do know his ESPN projection was similar to that of the Wall kid at KY, that is why it projected such a high impact on Gopher wins. Like baseball this uses an average player (Par) and adds or subtracts the impact the analyzed player would bring to the team. In Whites case he had a projected high impact +10 rating , similar but slighlty less then Wall as ESPN projeted
Click to expand...

Does this tool project any more theft allegations?
 


rcpratt said:
A kid that has never played a minute in college causes a 68-point swing (Portland, TA&M, Miami) in just three games? Sorry, not buying it.
Click to expand...


That is a good point you make as well, notice these games were lower scoring and it is precisely in these type of games where an added 10-20 points that Royce would bring would have made the difference, as our scoring was lower then normal.
 

Does this mean if Trevor would have played in all of the games the Gophers would be undefeated? Just curious
 



How many lay-ups did Nostradamus miss and what effect did they have on his quatrains?
 

Wall at Kentucky is considered a potential number 1 draft choice. I know Royce was considered a major talent as a recruit, but are you really suggesting that Royce was considered a potential number 1 pick?

Sabermetrics in baseball are great. Love the statistical analysis and think they can be used very well. Don't know anything about it in basketball, but after this projection I lost a little faith.
 

CDH27 said:
Does this mean if Trevor would have played in all of the games the Gophers would be undefeated? Just curious
Click to expand...

With two players you cannot run the simulation, the variability is too great as too many variables change the outcome. Trevr likely would not have the huge impact White did.
 

MNBadgerGuy said:
Wall at Kentucky is considered a potential number 1 draft choice. I know Royce was considered a major talent as a recruit, but are you really suggesting that Royce was considered a potential number 1 pick?

Sabermetrics in baseball are great. Love the statistical analysis and think they can be used very well. Don't know anything about it in basketball, but after this projection I lost a little faith.
Click to expand...

According to ESPN Wall was the most impactful Guard and White was supposed to be the most impactful forward.
 

After watching Trevor and Royce play this past summer, there was no doubt in my mind that Trevor would have been more of a factor than Royce this year. Something we will never know the answer too, but I have to admit I am even more skeptical about the model if it says Trevor would not have been a factor.
 

CDH27 said:
After watching Trevor and Royce play this past summer, there was no doubt in my mind that Trevor would have been more of a factor than Royce this year. Something we will never know the answer too, but I have to admit I am even more skeptical about the model if it says Trevor would not have been a factor.
Click to expand...

The "model" does not say that, I just don't know how to rate him without any experience or any benchmark like Wall. He likely would not have been as big of a factor as White is all I am saying because I don't have anything to benchmark him against nor did ESPN rank him in this top class of players like White or Wall. Your opinion might be right but statistically we have no way of supporting it like with the White/Wall comparisson which ESPN says is accurate because it came from them.
 

Ignoring that crap, I still say we would have no more than 2 losses with Royce and probably only one loss with both him and Trevor.
 

I think it was GopherLady who earlier this year suggested that if White wouldn't have got himself (and the Gophers) into this mess that, just maybe, the Gophers would not have suspended Mbakwe. But the Gopher brass thought that with two guys under suspicion both needed to be suspended.

End result ... if White had gone somewhere else, Mbakwe is likely active and Gophers are several games better off for it. Nice going Royce!
 

Holy cow, another thread of the "WTF?" variety. I guess the more bad news we all get, the more bizarre things are destined to get. :eek:
 

Not to be nit-picky, but we would've played West Virginia in the final, so we may have been 18-2 at the moment. Either way, we need Royce now.
 

Sabermetrics

What would they be if Kevin Payton was still on the team???
 




Missed-layup said:
According to ESPN Wall was the most impactful Guard and White was supposed to be the most impactful forward.
Click to expand...

Would love to see the full article that you refer to because according to ESPN's rankings, White was the 10th ranked PF in the country, with Favors obviously at #1. John Wall was obviously the #1 PG.

To take Wall's performance and use it as a guide for what White would have done is patently ridiculous. Wall is the consensus #1 draft pick. Do you really think that White would have been #2? No way.
 

As a statistical nerd, I would love to look at this. Where can I find the methodologies, formulas, inputs, anything?
 

Just look up sabermetrics. It will lead you to Wikipedia. It's a baseball deal from what I read.
 

You must log in or register to reply here.



Top Bottom