Athlon is basing their projections too strongly off of last year's performance. There is absolutely no reason that Penn State, Iowa, Illinois should be ranked higher than us.
I think one could make the argument for any of those teams.
Penn State, they lost to a borderline top-25 team in week one and went to the edge against an AQ opponent in week two, losing only because of a terrible kicker. Then they went on to pound a (terrible) FBS school last week.
Illinois had a 20-point victory against Western Michigan at home while Minnesota only managed a 5-point victory. Sure, they got pounded by ASU in the desert, but they also came home and trounced an FCS school last week.
Iowa's loss at home was bad, but it was close to an AQ opponent. They went to a neutral site and beat NIU (better than UNLV), and comfortably won against UNI (better than UNH) last week.
Minnesota needed 3 OTs to beat UNLV, pounded an FCS opponent and escaped against a MAC team at home.
So, while I don't agree with the reasoning, you
could make a case that any of those three teams are better than Minnesota based on the schedules each has played (UNLV/UNH/WMU is the worst collection of opponents out of this group of four teams).