All right, gonna write a long post here. Feel free not to read it, but I just wanted to look at our 2014 games in detail for my own benefit and writing it down makes me research it/think about it a little bit.
It's a fascinating question of whether 2014 is a harder schedule than 2013, and it's very important because who you play - and especially when you play them - is a big part of your overall record. To do this right, let's recap 2013.
08/29/2013 UNLV W 51-23
09/07/2013 @ New Mexico State W 44-21
09/14/2013 Western Illinois W 29-12
09/21/2013 San Jose State W 43-24
09/28/2013 Iowa L 7-23
10/05/2013 @ Michigan L 13-42
10/19/2013 @ Northwestern W 20-17
10/26/2013 Nebraska W 34-23
11/02/2013 @ Indiana W 42-39
11/09/2013 Penn State W 24-10
11/23/2013 Wisconsin L 7-20
11/30/2013 @ Michigan State L 3-14
12/27/2013 vs. Syracuse L 17-21
So, let's recap, we played 4 NC games against average to below average teams that we beat by grinding into submission. Then we were beaten solidly by Iowa & Michigan. Then, the key to our successful season - we took a bye week off, rested up and regrouped. Then we played a battered, injured, and depressed Northwestern team and ground them into submission. A nice win and it keyed the season turnaround. We solidly beat Nebraska, shakily beat Indiana, and solidly beat Penn State before losing against very good Wisconsin & Michigan St teams by fairly closely margins.
In 2013, we could not have played Northwestern at a more opportune time. If we'd played them week 1 of the B1G season, when they were brimming with confidence and healthy, we probably would've lost. We played at Michigan when we were a bit tired from 6 games in a row. If we'd have played them towards the end of the season, with our incline and their decline it probably would've been very close and we may have won. Also, UNLV improved throughout their season. Probably would've beat them at any time, but they were definitely worse the first few weeks. There weren't really any games I thought we outplayed the other team but lost or that they outplayed us where we won. The only game that was somewhat fluky was the road win at Indy. Indy should've at least kicked a FG to go to OT with the momentum, but they didn't. But we should've never let them back in it. So overall, a solid 8-5 but one very much dependent on catching Northwestern at the right time.
Let's see how the 2014 schedule shakes out, and I think we should really think of it as 3 mini-seasons:
Mini-season 1: before the first bye:
8/28 vs E Illinois
9/6 vs MTSU
9/13 at TCU
9/20 vs SJSU
9/27 at Michigan
So, we should really be able to grind out wins in the 3 home games much as we did last year. The 2 road games are real wildcards, though. In their 2 years in the Big12, TCU has been <.500 both years, but they've competed and haven't been blown out. We could lose or win and it's so early in the season, both teams will still be figuring out what they have and getting organized. We play Michigan in both teams' 5th games in 5 weeks. Michigan plays at Notre Dame week 2 and hosts Utah week 4 (Utah's record on paper is extremely similar to TCU). Michigan lost 6 of their last 8 games last year but were close in all but 1 of them. Are they getting worse or was last year just a string of close losses that snowballed? By week 5, I'm hoping Michigan is at least 3-1 or even 2-2 and feeling lousy about themselves. It's pretty early for players to bail on a coach, but if they're 2-2 and we get up early on them, they could hang their heads and the crowd could turn on them and then we could crush them or at least beat them. But more likely Michigan will be 3-1 or 4-0 and fairly confident. We can still beat them if we're truly improved from last year, but time will tell.
Bottom Line for mini-season 1: worse than 3-2 and we've got serious problems. 4-1 should be almost expected and 5-0 is possible but optimistic
Mini-season 2:
10/5 vs NW
10/12 vs Purdue
10/19 at Illinois
So NW lost Kain Colter, but Venric Mark should be back, but we again play them after our bye and after they play Wisconsin. They play at Penn St the week before that and they open with Cal & N Illinois. So their record could be all over the place depending. No one ever gives NW any respect, but they were a lot better team than their record last year. They gave Ohio St all they wanted and almost won. We might get lucky and play them after a beat down from Wisconsin, or they could be 4-1/5-0 and confident. It's at home this year, which should help us a bit, but still this will be a test. Purdue was terrible last year and should be better but still bad this year. Illinois was bad last year. They will have lost to Nebraska & Wisconsin by our games, but they have 3 NC games they should win plus a road game at Washington and a home game vs Purdue. If they have won 4-5 games, they'll be fighting for a bowl spot and up for the game. With 3 or less wins, Beckman will probably be a lame duck and the Gophers should win big. Either way, we should still win that game.
Bottom Line for mini-season 2: should be 2-1 or 3-0. Less is almost unacceptable unless 2 or more opponents are unexpectedly majorly improved
Mini-season 3:
11/8 vs Iowa
11/15 vs Ohio St
11/22 at Nebraska
11/29 at Wisconsin
Well, this is the tough stretch and it's nice we have a bye going into it to regroup and heal up. Iowa's got a soft early B1G season (@Pur, vs Indy, @Mary, vs NW) before they take us on, but they play 2 non-gimme NC games (vs ISU, @Pitt). They were definitely improved last year and better than us but hopefully we're improved. This will be a good test of how much we've improved from 2013 (or not). Ohio St & Wisconsin both had big success under their 1st year coaches but with largely new defenses in 2014, will they take a step back? Everyone thinks OSU is so awesome, but a co-worker of mine who's an OSU fan says he thinks they're overrated, mostly because they lose their D front 7. Nebraska is the only possibility in the last 4 to offer the chance to play a lame duck coach, but this is probably remote. They have possible (probable?) losses to Mich St, Mia(FL), Wisconsin ahead of our game, but it would probably take them losing those 3 plus 2 of NW, Ill, Purdue, Rutgers, & Fresno St for Pelini to achieve lame duck status (with his players therefore mailing it in) by the time we play them. Otherwise, they should be tough but certainly not unbeatable. Wisconsin has crossovers with Maryland & Rutgers and plays LSU & South Florida in NC. They have question marks at receiver and the defensive front 7. Another good test.
Bottom Line for mini-season 3: we wouldn't be favored in any of these 4 if they made the lines today, and I'm sure we'd be very happy with 2-2 in this stretch, but 1-3 is probably acceptable if all the games are close
Well, you gotta think that if we're improved over last year we'll be at least 5-3 by the 2nd bye (and hopefully 6-2,7-1, or even 8-0) . At that point, we're not going to luck into a win. The season could play out that we'd be better than last year and still end up 5-7 or 6-6. But if we get a few breaks like we got last year, we should easily be 7-5, 8-4, 9-3, or even better. Is this season's schedule tougher than 2013? I think 2014 sets up easier in the first 8 games, but the closing 4 games are tougher. If we can take advantage of the early 8 by going at least 6-2 (and preferably 7-1 or 8-0), then we should be brimming with confidence to take on the big boys the last 4 weeks. If we go 5-3 (gulp, or worse) then 2014 will seem like a tougher schedule, and we'll have taken a step back. Bottom line, we've got to be better than last year, and if we are we should have a good chance to do some damage and even compete for a B1G title. BTW, I'll be attending all 4 November games, so I'm desperately hoping we're improved.
