ESPN: Ranking top games for College Football Playoff implications (#2. uw at MN)

[BleedGopher]

per ESPN:

2. Wisconsin at Minnesota
Why it's No. 2: Because it will determine whom Ohio State will face in the Big Ten championship, and an upset would create an extremely difficult and possibly controversial decision for the committee.

If Wisconsin wins: The Badgers will clinch the West and get their second shot at Ohio State in the Big Ten title game, a chance to avenge their 38-7 regular-season loss to the Buckeyes on Oct. 26. If Wisconsin won the Big Ten, would the committee take a two-loss conference champion that lost at unranked Illinois in what was one of the biggest upsets of the season? (Oregon would like a word.) Or would it take Ohio State instead, an extremely difficult decision to explain on the heels of the conference championship but also justifiable in that they would have split and Wisconsin had the Illinois loss? It's a headache for the committee, and also an example of why Ohio State couldn't afford to lose to Michigan.

If Minnesota wins: The Golden Gophers will face Ohio State in the Big Ten title game, and the conference keeps its chances of having two teams finish in the top four. If Minnesota wins the Big Ten title, it would have one of the most impressive résumés in the country, with victories against Penn State, Wisconsin and Ohio State. As long as Ohio State doesn't lose to Michigan on Saturday, the committee could still consider both Minnesota and Ohio State.

FPI says: Minnesota has a 39.2% chance to beat Wisconsin.

Allstate Playoff Predictor says: If Minnesota wins Saturday, its chances of reaching the playoff are 3.9%.

Ranking Week 14's biggest games by playoff implications

Ohio State and LSU can likely withstand losing to their rivals, but Alabama must beat Auburn convincingly to keep its CFP hopes alive.

www.espn.com

Go Gophers!!

 

[DarrenTheGreek]

Allstate Playoff Predictor says: If Minnesota wins Saturday, its chances of reaching the playoff are 3.9%.

That's hogwash.

 

[WhoFellDownTheGopherHole?]

That's hogwash.

I'm curious if that 3.9% was determined from current data only, and before taking into consideration and accounting for a theoretical win this weekend. I'm guessing so.

 

[Dano564]

So they are giving us a 5% chance to beat OSU, then an 80% chance if we do beat OSU to make the playoff.

 

[matt]

I'm curious if that 3.9% was determined from current data only, and before taking into consideration and accounting for a theoretical win this weekend. I'm guessing so.

For those of you who haven't checked this out yet, FiveThirtyEight has an interactive CFP predictor. It currently gives Minnesota a 7% chance of making the playoff, increasing to 15% with a win on Saturday (not counting any other results).

FiveThirtyEight playoff predictor link

 

[SJUgopher]

So they are giving us a 5% chance to beat OSU, then an 80% chance if we do beat OSU to make the playoff.

I think saw a tweet is was less than 50% if we beat tOSU, which is absurd.

 

[mjfelton15]

I still don’t get how the FPI gives the Gophers a 39% chance of winning. Based on what data?

 

[tmvander]

I still don’t get how the FPI gives the Gophers a 39% chance of winning. Based on what data?

Names on jerseys

 

[Dano564]

For those of you who haven't checked this out yet, FiveThirtyEight has an interactive CFP predictor. It currently gives Minnesota a 7% chance of making the playoff, increasing to 15% with a win on Saturday (not counting any other results).

FiveThirtyEight playoff predictor link

What's interesting about this is Oklahoma and Oregon losing this weekend would be the two factors that would best help our chances to make CFP.
If we beat WI and either of them lose, we go from 15% to 17% chance of CFP going into OSU.

If we win out we are an 84% chance of making the CFP.

Picking win out scenarios for various teams, we usually end up 3rd in likelihood behind the SEC Champ and Clemson if we win out.
Leaving the 4th spot to a 2nd SEC team, Big 12 team, or Pac12 team.

 

[amk8930]

I think we should focus on just beating Wisconsin first. I mean we are only 39% chance there and I assume that takes into account good weather. With bad weather, I’m sure that chance becomes much, much lower.

 

[1983]

This crap is stupid. We have a 50% chance of winning as well as Wisconsin.

 

[matt]

This crap is stupid. We have a 50% chance of winning as well as Wisconsin.

What percent chance would you give the Gophers on a neutral field against the New England Patriots?

 

[bleedsmaroonandgold]

What percent chance would you give the Gophers on a neutral field against the New England Patriots?

Certainly less than the chances I give the gophers against a lower ranked team than us on our home field. I'd put us at better than 50-50 on Saturday.