ESPN from Bovada: Current odds to win Big Ten Title

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supadupafly

supadupafly

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Per ESPN (citing oddsmaker Bovada): Ohio State is officially the odds-on favorite to win the Big Ten title at 1-to-1. It's interesting that the Buckeyes are such favorites despite so many question marks, including offensive line, running back, receiver and defensive back seven. But the faith in Urban Meyer is strong.

Michigan State and Wisconsin are tied as the second choice at 9-to-2, followed by Nebraska at 5-to-1. Other teams' odds to win the Big Ten championship (Penn State, obviously, is ineligible):

Michigan: 6-to-1
Iowa: 12-to-1
Minnesota: 33-to-1
Northwestern: 40-to-1
Illinois: 66-to-1
Indiana: 66-to-1
Maryland: 100-to-1
Rutgers: 200-to-1
Purdue: 250-to-1
 

Michigan is a TERRIBLE bet.

Although I don't feel Minnesota will win the Big Ten, 33 to 1 is probably worth the risk.

Looking at those odds, I'd take a shot with Iowa. 12 to 1 and a schedule that can work (Neb. & WI in Iowa City....toughest conference road game is @ TCF). They have just as good a chance to get to Indy as any of the "top 3" in the west have.
 

My hypothetical bet goes to Northwestern. I don't think they will win it but they are always quirky enough to lay down a twenty dollar bill at 40 to 1.
 

FireDaveLee said:
Michigan is a TERRIBLE bet.

Although I don't feel Minnesota will win the Big Ten, 33 to 1 is probably worth the risk.

Looking at those odds, I'd take a shot with Iowa. 12 to 1 and a schedule that can work (Neb. & WI in Iowa City....toughest conference road game is @ TCF). They have just as good a chance to get to Indy as any of the "top 3" in the west have.
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I agree with Minnesota and Iowa being good bets at the stated odds (as much as I hate to admit it with Iowa). I'd also be willing to lay down some money on Sparty at 9:2. No way would I lay down money on OSU if it is an even money bet.
 

supadupafly said:
Per ESPN (citing oddsmaker Bovada): Ohio State is officially the odds-on favorite to win the Big Ten title at 1-to-1. It's interesting that the Buckeyes are such favorites despite so many question marks, including offensive line, running back, receiver and defensive back seven. But the faith in Urban Meyer is strong.

Michigan State and Wisconsin are tied as the second choice at 9-to-2, followed by Nebraska at 5-to-1. Other teams' odds to win the Big Ten championship (Penn State, obviously, is ineligible):

Michigan: 6-to-1
Iowa: 12-to-1
Minnesota: 33-to-1
Northwestern: 40-to-1
Illinois: 66-to-1
Indiana: 66-to-1
Maryland: 100-to-1
Rutgers: 200-to-1
Purdue: 250-to-1
Click to expand...

How can ANY team be a 250-1 to win a CONFERENCE championship? That just seems ludicrous to me.
 


If we are way ahead of Maryland and Rutgers in terms of projected chance to win the Big Ten then why on earth did BTN rate all of our Defensive position groups below Maryland and Rutgers?
 

gophers141 said:
If we are way ahead of Maryland and Rutgers in terms of projected chance to win the Big Ten then why on earth did BTN rate all of our Defensive position groups below Maryland and Rutgers?
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It's that powerhouse third-ranked special teams that really puts us over the edge.
 

gophers141 said:
If we are way ahead of Maryland and Rutgers in terms of projected chance to win the Big Ten then why on earth did BTN rate all of our Defensive position groups below Maryland and Rutgers?
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I think that will be a pattern under Jerry Kill over the years here. He seems to really believe in the importance of the team and work ethic, and produces teams that work within a sound system, and go about their business with everyone knowing their role and working hard. That sounds like a recipe for a team that is greater than the sum of its parts, so I bet we will need to get used to our overall team enjoying a higher rating than any of our positions or players when looked at in a vacuum.
 

supadupafly said:
Per ESPN (citing oddsmaker Bovada): Ohio State is officially the odds-on favorite to win the Big Ten title at 1-to-1. It's interesting that the Buckeyes are such favorites despite so many question marks, including offensive line, running back, receiver and defensive back seven. But the faith in Urban Meyer is strong.

Michigan State and Wisconsin are tied as the second choice at 9-to-2, followed by Nebraska at 5-to-1. Other teams' odds to win the Big Ten championship (Penn State, obviously, is ineligible):

Michigan: 6-to-1
Iowa: 12-to-1
Minnesota: 33-to-1
Northwestern: 40-to-1
Illinois: 66-to-1
Indiana: 66-to-1
Maryland: 100-to-1
Rutgers: 200-to-1
Purdue: 250-to-1
Click to expand...

I don't get Michigan. If you pre-suppose that MSU or OSU have a 2/3 chance of winning the title game, then the odds of Wisconsin, Iowa, and Minnesota make sense. The difference between the first two and the latter being schedule. Of the three, I agree that Iowa is the best place for your money. Wisconsin will need to beat them in Iowa city to get to Indy. Gophers get screwed by the schedule makers.
 





BarnBoy said:
What's ludicrous about it? They are terrible.
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I just think it seems strange that you can be THAT heavy of an underdog when there are only 14 teams. I mean Arkansas has a 300 to 1 odds to win the National Championship Game according to Bovada futures. I'd think Purdue's chances are better to win the conference championship than Arkansas to win the national championship.
 

maroonedinCA said:
I just think it seems strange that you can be THAT heavy of an underdog when there are only 14 teams. I mean Arkansas has a 300 to 1 odds to win the National Championship Game according to Bovada futures. I'd think Purdue's chances are better to win the conference championship than Arkansas to win the national championship.
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Assume for a moment that the B1G champion is going to have to win 10 or 11 games. Purdue will be underdogs or heavy underdogs in all of their B1G games save maybe 1. They might even be underdogs in 1 or 2 of their non-conference games. Let's spot them 2 games and say that they have to win 8 or 9 games in which they are underdogs.

That's like having a lottery drawing where the black/gold ball (Purdue) is mixed in with 2, 3 or 4 white balls (since we know they will be some sort of underdog). They need to pull out the black/gold ball in 9 consecutive drawings. Obviously, if they start ripping off wins, their odds will change in subsequent games, but you get the idea. Heavy, heavy underdogs that must do they improbable (not impossible) week in and out.
 



I'd bet on Wisconsin at 9:2. Their schedule pretty much guarantees them a spot in the title game. Their most difficult game is at Iowa. Let me repeat. Their most difficult game is at Iowa. They could start back ups and get to 5-0.
 

BarnBoy said:
Assume for a moment that the B1G champion is going to have to win 10 or 11 games. Purdue will be underdogs or heavy underdogs in all of their B1G games save maybe 1. They might even be underdogs in 1 or 2 of their non-conference games. Let's spot them 2 games and say that they have to win 8 or 9 games in which they are underdogs.

That's like having a lottery drawing where the black/gold ball (Purdue) is mixed in with 2, 3 or 4 white balls (since we know they will be some sort of underdog). They need to pull out the black/gold ball in 9 consecutive drawings. Obviously, if they start ripping off wins, their odds will change in subsequent games, but you get the idea. Heavy, heavy underdogs that must do they improbable (not impossible) week in and out.
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Oh I completely agree that from a mathematical standpoint it's likely far WORSE than 250:1 but from a relative to other lines standpoint it seems outrageous. Especially in light of the Arkansas one! If you were to take a mathematical point of view, in a vacuum of each team individually, you'd likely find there chances of winning the national championship far worse than the odds being posted even the FSU, OSU, Alabama of the world.
 

maroonedinCA said:
I just think it seems strange that you can be THAT heavy of an underdog when there are only 14 teams. I mean Arkansas has a 300 to 1 odds to win the National Championship Game according to Bovada futures. I'd think Purdue's chances are better to win the conference championship than Arkansas to win the national championship.
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Right, isn't that why their odds are 250/1 and Arkansas' odds are 300/1?
 

maroonedinCA said:
Oh I completely agree that from a mathematical standpoint it's likely far WORSE than 250:1 but from a relative to other lines standpoint it seems outrageous. Especially in light of the Arkansas one! If you were to take a mathematical point of view, in a vacuum of each team individually, you'd likely find there chances of winning the national championship far worse than the odds being posted even the FSU, OSU, Alabama of the world.
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Remember also that it's not a prediction, it's a reflection of the opening line (set by Vegas) and how it flows over time (adjusted by the money either coming in for Purdue or not coming in for Purdue). Bottom line: Very few people think they will win the B1G championship. Sort of a "Wisdom of Crowds".
 

Gopher024 said:
Right, isn't that why their odds are 250/1 and Arkansas' odds are 300/1?
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I guess I meant that the odds are too similar. I feel Purdues chances at the B1G are MUCH better than Ark at the NC. Not by a factor of 1/6th better.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 

If I had a $100 to blow I'd bet:

Minnesota $10
Iowa $20
Wisconsin $35
Michigan St $35
 


gophers141 said:
If we are way ahead of Maryland and Rutgers in terms of projected chance to win the Big Ten then why on earth did BTN rate all of our Defensive position groups below Maryland and Rutgers?
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Because that hack Dienhart is a lazy SOB just copying and pasting his same articles from last year and changing out a couple names. Putting zero effort and any real thought into his rankings. Take anything Dienhart at BTN.com posts with a LARGE grain of salt. The dude is pretty clueless and quite frankly lazy. I personally don't think he really knows much about football to be honest. Dude is just a reporter with access to ink/the internet.
 

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