ESPN: Closest projected game of year: Minnesota at Iowa (MN has 50.2% chance to win)

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BleedGopher

BleedGopher

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per ESPN:

As the 2015 college football season approaches, ESPN Stats & Information will preview each Power 5 conference from the perspective of preseason FPI. As a refresher, preseason FPI is a rating based on a number of factors that have been found to be predictive for the coming season (previous years’ efficiencies, returning starters, recruiting rankings and coaching tenure). An explanation of preseason FPI can be found here and here, and full season projections are available at espn.com/fpi.

Today we will analyze the upcoming season in the Big Ten.

• Closest projected game of the year: Minnesota at Iowa (Nov. 14) – Minnesota 50.2 percent chance to win

The last four meetings between Iowa and Minnesota have been split with an average margin of victory of one point per game. FPI expects another close matchup but gives Minnesota the slightest edge, even on the road, because of its offense, which averaged a season-high 3.9 points per drive against the Hawkeyes last season.

http://espn.go.com/blog/bigten/post/_/id/121604/fpi-previews-the-big-ten-season

Go Gophers!!
 


BleedGopher said:
The last four meetings between Iowa and Minnesota have been split with an average margin of victory of one point per game. FPI expects another close matchup
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That's an interesting way to look at it, I guess.

2014: Minnesota +37
2013: Iowa +16
2012: Iowa +18
2011: Minnesota +1


So, only one game was actually close, but when margin of victory is averaged out, it comes to exactly a point per game.
 


tjgopher said:
That's an interesting way to look at it, I guess.

2014: Minnesota +37
2013: Iowa +16
2012: Iowa +18
2011: Minnesota +1


So, only one game was actually close, but when margin of victory is averaged out, it comes to exactly a point per game.
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Time will tell where Iowa is at that point in the season, I'm reminded of their night game against PSU in 2012 coming off of a surprising win against MSU, they laid an egg and got blown away the rest of the year.
Ferentz will either be the goat or the hero by mid november, and either way we match up well against them IMO. I don't see the gunslinger QB they have now fitting in with their super conservative style and young defense successfully.
 


Just like getting Bo fired last year, we will get the great Kirk fired this year.
 



The average victory margin over the past four years/games is 18, not 1. Geez. It would be much easier to say that someone will set the tone early and dominate, than it is to expect "another close matchup."

Yeah, I know the point the author was getting at: Over the past four games the Gophers have scored 4 total points more than Iowa so that averages to 1 per game. It is totally misrepresented though.
 



Schnauzer, if you take the aggregate score difference from a single team's perspective (meaning + difference for a win and negative difference for a loss) or if you look at the aggregate scores over the 4 year time period and averaged for the four years it is 1 point.

Taking the margin of victory, each year, regardless of winner you get the more accurate margin of victory calculation of 16.5 points.

Regardless of how they got there or the merits of each, the accuracy assumes things are consistent. If the balance of power is shifting, you end up with a rear view look not a going forward look.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 

bottlebass said:
Just like getting Bo fired last year, we will get the great Kirk fired this year.
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And I 100% want to go and see it live. Was at Nebraska last year and I want to see if I can collect ticket stubs from all 13 big ten opponents for the games where we beat them and cost the coach his job. Problem is that if Jerry keeps the program improving we might reach a point where losing to Minnesota isn't cause to get fired anymore. :)
 

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