ESPN analyzes Gophers win total: Bennett says "over" on 6.5 wins, Moyer says "under"

Donate To GopherHole
BleedGopher

BleedGopher

Well-known member
Joined
Nov 11, 2008
Messages
62,396
Reaction score
19,236
Points
113
ESPN analyzes Gophers win total: Bennett says "over" on 6.5 wins, Moyer says "under"

per ESPN:

Brian Bennett: Over

The Gophers are my sleeper pick in the Big Ten West. Remember that they went 5-7 in the regular season last year despite a rash of injuries and a brutal schedule that included games against TCU, Ohio State and Michigan, plus a road trip to Iowa. A little better fortune on the health front should help a great deal. Also helpful: a nonconference slate featuring Oregon State, Indiana State and Colorado State, all at home, and no crossovers against the Buckeyes, Wolverines or Michigan State. Minnesota enters the season with a fifth-year senior at quarterback (Mitch Leidner), a solid running game that should see a boost under new offensive coordinator Jay Johnson and another talented secondary led by Jalen Myrick and Damarius Travis. They'll win at least seven games and should be a factor in the division race.

Josh Moyer: Under

I'm not quite as bullish on the Gophers this season. Don't get me wrong; I still think they'll win six games and head to a bowl. But they're still a notch below the West's best. Leidner may return, but the new offense appears to be a better fit for his backups. And the lack of playmakers at receiver is a big issue moving forward; all the drops in the spring game only reinforced that. Minnesota's secondary is almost certainly going to take a step back, and the pass-rush (or lack thereof) is a real concern. On top of all that, Minnesota's third-down defense was atrocious last season and, even with the nation's No. 13 pass defense, it still allowed more passing first downs there than all but two B1G teams (Indiana, Nebraska). I think this team is likely to win between six and eight games but, because of those question marks, I'm sticking with the "under" for now.

http://espn.go.com/blog/bigten/post/_/id/134425/take-two-minnesotas-win-total-in-2016

Go Gophers!!
 


BleedGopher said:
per ESPN:

Josh Moyer: Under

I'm not quite as bullish on the Gophers this season. Don't get me wrong; I still think they'll win six games and head to a bowl. But they're still a notch below the West's best. Leidner may return, but the new offense appears to be a better fit for his backups. And the lack of playmakers at receiver is a big issue moving forward; all the drops in the spring game only reinforced that. Minnesota's secondary is almost certainly going to take a step back, and the pass-rush (or lack thereof) is a real concern. On top of all that, Minnesota's third-down defense was atrocious last season and, even with the nation's No. 13 pass defense, it still allowed more passing first downs there than all but two B1G teams (Indiana, Nebraska). I think this team is likely to win between six and eight games but, because of those question marks, I'm sticking with the "under" for now.

http://espn.go.com/blog/bigten/post/_/id/134425/take-two-minnesotas-win-total-in-2016

Go Gophers!!
Click to expand...

What? Nobody has seen the new offense yet. The Spring game was as vanilla as it gets - and Leidner did not play in the Spring game. But this guy magically knows the new offense "appears to be a better fit for his backups." Damn, a psychic sportswriter.
 

He's assuming we'll be more of a spread team utilizing the QB option runs, which is almost certainly to be true. But what is also true is the QB needs to know his keys and reads and coverage down to a T, and he has to be the leader of the team. And right now that guy is most likely Mitch Leidner. The offense will probably be an evolution, as they've said all along. I'm not expecting anything mind-blowing along the lines of the Baylor power spread run attack. I'd personally love to see that, but we're not going to see that.
 

BleedGopher said:
per ESPN:

Brian Bennett: Over

The Gophers are my sleeper pick in the Big Ten West. Remember that they went 5-7 in the regular season last year despite a rash of injuries and a brutal schedule that included games against TCU, Ohio State and Michigan, plus a road trip to Iowa. A little better fortune on the health front should help a great deal. Also helpful: a nonconference slate featuring Oregon State, Indiana State and Colorado State, all at home, and no crossovers against the Buckeyes, Wolverines or Michigan State. Minnesota enters the season with a fifth-year senior at quarterback (Mitch Leidner), a solid running game that should see a boost under new offensive coordinator Jay Johnson and another talented secondary led by Jalen Myrick and Damarius Travis. They'll win at least seven games and should be a factor in the division race.

Josh Moyer: Under

I'm not quite as bullish on the Gophers this season. Don't get me wrong; I still think they'll win six games and head to a bowl. But they're still a notch below the West's best. Leidner may return, but the new offense appears to be a better fit for his backups. And the lack of playmakers at receiver is a big issue moving forward; all the drops in the spring game only reinforced that. Minnesota's secondary is almost certainly going to take a step back, and the pass-rush (or lack thereof) is a real concern. On top of all that, Minnesota's third-down defense was atrocious last season and, even with the nation's No. 13 pass defense, it still allowed more passing first downs there than all but two B1G teams (Indiana, Nebraska). I think this team is likely to win between six and eight games but, because of those question marks, I'm sticking with the "under" for now.

http://espn.go.com/blog/bigten/post/_/id/134425/take-two-minnesotas-win-total-in-2016

Go Gophers!!
Click to expand...

Apparently Josh has studied the new playbook...funny how he still basically agreed with the over and committed to the under.
 


Does anyone know where ESPN pulled the 6.5 wins line from? As far as I can tell the only book with it open (South Point) still has it set at 6 wins.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 

You know, I kind of like this Brian guy, but that Josh guy isn't as good at his job.
 


The official line is "6" in Vegas for what it is worth. At 6.5, the smart money may be on the 'under.' If we stay healthy, we should easily surpass that number, but not much has to go wrong for us to wind up with 5-6 wins. My point is 6.5 is a pretty astute over/under for this year...we're all smelling roses (literally and/or figuratively) at this time of year - but 5-8 wins is probably where we end up. Toss-up?
 



Heading to Vegas the first week of August and I really hope that the line is still 6 wins. 6 vs 6.5 is a whole different ball game, huge difference


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 

GopherHomer said:
The official line is "6" in Vegas for what it is worth. At 6.5, the smart money may be on the 'under.' If we stay healthy, we should easily surpass that number, but not much has to go wrong for us to wind up with 5-6 wins. My point is 6.5 is a pretty astute over/under for this year...we're all smelling roses (literally and/or figuratively) at this time of year - but 5-8 wins is probably where we end up. Toss-up?
Click to expand...

Seriously...if we can't get at least 7 wins with this schedule I will be extremely disappointed, even with some injuries.
 

Last year I picked the under and got hammered on this board...won that bet. This year I am picking the over. Even with the graduation in the secondary and the new offense, our schedule is way easier and our depth is better. I think our offense will be top 5 in the Big Ten and our defense will be good enough. We will be top 5 in turn over margin and we will be much better in the red zone.

I predict 8 wins and a good bowl game.
 

Both guys make some reasonable points. We'll play the games and time will tell...
 



PMWinSTP said:
Seriously...if we can't get at least 7 wins with this schedule I will be extremely disappointed, even with some injuries.
Click to expand...

I will too - but it's not like I have never been 'extremely disappointed' with the Gophers before. All I was trying to say is that, while the schedule sure does set up well for us to acheive 8+ victories, an over/under at 6.5 would still be a tricky bet for me. PSU, Neb, uw, Iowa, NW will all likely be favorites to beat us (albeit by fairly small spreads) even with a fully healthy squad. If Leidner were to get hurt - I would give us 5 L's in those games...that would mean to beat 6.5 number, we would have to sweep the rest of our games. This is dire prediction that I don't necessarily think will happen, but in placing a bet it would be something that I would think about. I will admit, though, that if I was forced to make $1k bet I would still take the 'over' at 6.5 but I don't think it's a slam-dunk.
 

short ornery norwegian said:
What? Nobody has seen the new offense yet. The Spring game was as vanilla as it gets - and Leidner did not play in the Spring game. But this guy magically knows the new offense "appears to be a better fit for his backups." Damn, a psychic sportswriter.
Click to expand...

Umm, it's not that hard to find a replay of a UL-Laffeyette game or at least be familiar with the type of O they ran. Plus Demarcus Jackson, a Jay Johnson QB recruit, as well as the other QB targets this recruiting cycle, are all very different types of players than what Leidner is.
 


You must log in or register to reply here.



Top Bottom