ESPN’s FPI predicts every remaining game for Minnesota

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BleedGopher

BleedGopher

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per Ryan:

On paper, the Wisconsin game automatically appeared like a loss for the Gophers. But with their defense currently giving up 47 points per game, it gets even worse for Minnesota. Here’s how the FPI sees the rest of the season going for P.J. Fleck’s squad.

  • at Illinois – 53.1%
  • vs. Iowa – 31.3%
  • vs. Purdue – 39.5%
  • at Wisconsin – 4.3%
  • vs. Northwestern – 23.3%
  • at Nebraska – 33.4%
saturdaytradition.com

ESPN’s FPI predicts every remaining game for Minnesota

It has not been a good start for the Gophers.
saturdaytradition.com saturdaytradition.com

Go Gophers!!
 

About right due to the current situation. However all could changed just like last year.
 

#2Gopher said:
About right due to the current situation. However all could changed just like last year.
Click to expand...

Yep, makes sense that the metrics would look bad right now. But if the D can sort some things out this is something that can change in a hurry.
 

ESPN thinks that there is a chance both Wisconsin and Ohio state make the playoff. Which isn’t happening.

FPI is broken
 

#2Gopher said:
About right due to the current situation. However all could changed just like last year.
Click to expand...

Don't you mean two years ago? We had a bad defense until the last four games of the year. Probably not as bad as this one but we don't have 3 non-conference games this season to improve our numbers. Of course, we likely would have given up big yardage and points to BYU had we played them.
 



UpAndUnder43 said:
I didn't know this. Hilarious.
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Somehow they are both over a 50% chance to make the playoff.
im not sure how how the math works but there is less than a 140% chance a big ten team makes it.

They have Wisconsin as a 40% chance to make it.
If they have Wisconsin a 40% chance to make it then Ohio state certainly has less than an 80% chance of making it.
 

Some guy said:
Somehow they are both over a 50% chance to make the playoff.
im not sure how how the math works but there is less than a 140% chance a big ten team makes it.
Click to expand...

My guess is they firmly believe a B1G team makes it. Ohio St and wisconsin are the only ones likely to do it. So they both have a >50% chance to make it, but that doesn't mean they both are projected to make it.
 

UpAndUnder43 said:
My guess is they firmly believe a B1G team makes it. Ohio St and wisconsin are the only ones likely to do it. So they both have a >50% chance to make it, but that doesn't mean they both are projected to make it.
Click to expand...
But there is a guarantee that a Wisconsin team that makes it wins the big 10
So even if Wisconsin has a 40% chance of going unbeaten...that means there is no more than a 60% chance of Ohio state going unbeaten.

so unless they think there is an extremely large chance of a 1 loss Ohio state or Wisconsin making it...their math doesn’t make sense
 



Some guy said:
But there is a guarantee that a Wisconsin team that makes it wins the big 10
So even if Wisconsin has a 40% chance of going unbeaten...that means there is no more than a 60% chance of Ohio state going unbeaten.

so unless they think there is an extremely large chance of a 1 loss Ohio state or Wisconsin making it...their math doesn’t make sense
Click to expand...

You're not understanding. As of now, those projections make sense because both teams are likely to win out until they play each other. Obviously once they play each other the odds go down, but that game isn't scheduled.
 

UpAndUnder43 said:
You're not understanding. As of now, those projections make sense because both teams are likely to win out until they play each other. Obviously once they play each other the odds go down, but that game isn't scheduled.
Click to expand...
Then the algorithm to produce the odds is broken.
If they don’t play each other, one of them has a 0% chance of making it

If Ohio state has an 85% chance of making it, Wisconsin has no better than a 15% chance of making it unless you think it’s possible the big ten gets two.

If Wisconsin has a 40% chance of making it, Ohio state has no better than a 60% chance of making it unless you think the big ten gets two.
 

Some guy said:
Then the algorithm to produce the odds is broken.
If they don’t play each other, one of them has a 0% chance of making it

If Ohio state has an 85% chance of making it, Wisconsin has no better than a 15% chance of making it unless you think it’s possible the big ten gets two.

If Wisconsin has a 40% chance of making it, Ohio state has no better than a 60% chance of making it unless you think the big ten gets two.
Click to expand...

I'm done arguing but go ahead with your line of thinking.
 

UpAndUnder43 said:
I'm done arguing but go ahead with your line of thinking.
Click to expand...
Do you think there is an 85% chance of Ohio state making it AND a 40% chance of Wisconsin making it?

Using basic probability math that would mean this is possible but when you keep in mind that the two results are very likely nearly 100% dependent on the other not occurring something is way off.
 



regression back to the Gopher football mean. Last year was the shot.
 


I think that the Gophers have a 65% chance of beating Illinois
Score Gophers 35 Illinois 24
TALON fan of the Gophers
[

QUOTE="BleedGopher, post: 2079513, member: 12"]
per Ryan:

On paper, the Wisconsin game automatically appeared like a loss for the Gophers. But with their defense currently giving up 47 points per game, it gets even worse for Minnesota. Here’s how the FPI sees the rest of the season going for P.J. Fleck’s squad.

  • at Illinois – 53.1%
  • vs. Iowa – 31.3%
  • vs. Purdue – 39.5%
  • at Wisconsin – 4.3%
  • vs. Northwestern – 23.3%
  • at Nebraska – 33.4%
saturdaytradition.com

ESPN’s FPI predicts every remaining game for Minnesota

It has not been a good start for the Gophers.
saturdaytradition.com saturdaytradition.com

Go Gophers!!
[/QUOTE]
 
Last edited:

Some guy said:
Really needed to beat Iowa.
Played a horrible first half
Click to expand...
I was there in Iowa City and in Evanston the next week and the NU win in no way soothed the scar of Iowa City 2019. I will never forget those awful Mississippi state uniforms someone came up with for that dark day
 

So the FPI is saying that the Gophers only have one chance at winning in 6 games.

TALON

BleedGopher said:
per Ryan:

On paper, the Wisconsin game automatically appeared like a loss for the Gophers. But with their defense currently giving up 47 points per game, it gets even worse for Minnesota. Here’s how the FPI sees the rest of the season going for P.J. Fleck’s squad.

  • at Illinois – 53.1%
  • vs. Iowa – 31.3%
  • vs. Purdue – 39.5%
  • at Wisconsin – 4.3%
  • vs. Northwestern – 23.3%
  • at Nebraska – 33.4%
saturdaytradition.com

ESPN’s FPI predicts every remaining game for Minnesota

It has not been a good start for the Gophers.
saturdaytradition.com saturdaytradition.com

Go Gophers!!
Click to expand...
 

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