Early line has Gophers favored by 2.5

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gophersmokes

Gophersmokes
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I guess Vegas is more impressed with their 4-0 record than me. Take the Gophers minus the points. Becky hasn't gone on the road yet and this ain't the Metrodome anymore. Home field advantage for this game is worth at least six.
 

gophersmokes said:
I guess Vegas is more impressed with their 4-0 record than me. Take the Gophers minus the points. Becky hasn't gone on the road yet and this ain't the Metrodome anymore. Home field advantage for this game is worth at least six.
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Minnesota has yet to statistically establish that they play 6 points better at home than on the road. I'm not even sure what teams that exception would be made for, but it ain't us yet.

If you take away the 3 points for HFA, they are basically saying that on a neutral field, the two teams are equal. I personally think that's pretty fair to even generous considering the loss we have and the way they handled Michigan State.
 

the way they handled Michigan State.
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The Badgers hardly handled Mich St, Mich St. handled themselves. The Wisky offense picked up as the game went along and took advantage of Mich St. turnovers nicely, but the Mich St. offense looked totally disfunctional. Some of this was due to the Badgers but mostly it was just poor execution imo. The Badger defense will get torched by Weber. Can our D line get to Tolzein and stop the Badger run? Probabaly not, it should be a very entertaining to the wire game.
 

My impressions were a little different. I was at the Michigan State-Wisconsin game. The Spartans got handled. Final score was a mirage, game wasn't that close. Michigan State's issues are more on the defensive side of the ball than the offensive side of the ball (Cousins eventually will be a very good Big 10 QB). With no pass rush and not a strong secondary, so far Sparty's defense can make any QB look like a potential Heisman winner. I wouldn't bank on the Badgers' QB having a field day for 2 straight weeks. It'll still come down to the Gophers' ability/inability to stop the Badger running game, which I think they'll do.
 

Let's slow down before we give anyone too much credit for beating Michigan State. They haven't beaten a FBS team in a long time... it may be up to 5 games now. Michigan State is the most overrated program in college football, and they are showing everyone why they are again this season.
 


Omega015 said:
Let's slow down before we give anyone too much credit for beating Michigan State. They haven't beaten a FBS team in a long time... it may be up to 5 games now. Michigan State is the most overrated program in college football, and they are showing everyone why they are again this season.
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So they've lost 4 games in a row (2 to ranked teams, 2 to "also receiving votes" teams) and they're the "most overrated program in college football"? Give me a break. Need I remind you that they won 6 games in the Big Ten last year? Do you know the last time Minnesota did that? 1973.

Boy, I hope we're "the most overrated program in college football" soon.:rolleyes:

P.S. All 4 were away/neutral games.
 

I like that this is Wisconsin's first road game. It is going to be a little different playing outside the confines of Madison. At this point, I will take any advantage we can get.
 

Wisconsin reminds me of some Mason-era Gopher teams. Glide through a crappy non-con schedule, really start feeling good about yourself after an early Big 10 win at home, see your pretty undefeated record, and then...

Well, I have no idea if what I am reminded of is actually the same thing. I am as much wishing as I am being scientific but I agree very much that going on the road for the FIRST time all season to a Big 10 foe is a tall order. I don't know if it will play out this way but at least the makings are there for an ambush.

If I were a Wisconsin fan I wouldn't like the way my schedule was constructed with 4 straight home games and the first three being cup cakes.
 

dpodoll68 said:
So they've lost 4 games in a row (2 to ranked teams, 2 to "also receiving votes" teams) and they're the "most overrated program in college football"? Give me a break. Need I remind you that they won 6 games in the Big Ten last year? Do you know the last time Minnesota did that? 1973.

Boy, I hope we're "the most overrated program in college football" soon.:rolleyes:

P.S. All 4 were away/neutral games.
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First, are you giving MSU credit for losing to CMU? Also receiving votes? Seriously? Sparty was supposed to be a dark horse Big Ten champion, not almost better than a good MAC team.

By the way, I was talking about all-time overrated, not just right now. However, this season looks to be another disappointment for Sparty. CFN had a story a year or two ago where they ranked the most overrated programs of all-time and Michigan State finished #1, ahead of Notre Dame. Historically, no team fails to live up to the hype more than Michigan State. Beating ND at being overrated is no easy task.

It's much more likely that Michigan State is back to being mediocre this season than they are suddenly a powerhouse.
 



"It's much more likely that Michigan State is back to being mediocre this season than they are suddenly a powerhouse."

Sparty certainly not off to a good start this season. But playing Michigan at this time is the perfect tonic. What better way to heal your wounds than by beating your chief rival for the 2nd straight season?

The season thus far certainly isn't going as expected, but Dantonio is the right guy long-term for the MSU program. That wasn't the case with either Bobby "I'm in over my head" Williams or John L "Cowboy" Smith. Hunch is Sparty's program will be fine and is in good hands, regardless of how this season ends up.
 

Schnauzer said:
Wisconsin reminds me of some Mason-era Gopher teams. Glide through a crappy non-con schedule, really start feeling good about yourself after an early Big 10 win at home, see your pretty undefeated record, and then...

Well, I have no idea if what I am reminded of is actually the same thing. I am as much wishing as I am being scientific but I agree very much that going on the road for the FIRST time all season to a Big 10 foe is a tall order. I don't know if it will play out this way but at least the makings are there for an ambush.

If I were a Wisconsin fan I wouldn't like the way my schedule was constructed with 4 straight home games and the first three being cup cakes.
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If you think Fresno State and Northern Illinois are cupcakes, I am not sure how closely you follow college football.

Northern Illinois won at Purdue. You might say Purdue sucks, but they are a Big Ten team that Northern beat on the road.

Fresno State is ranked 50 in the Sagarin ratings. 34 in the ratings he believes are the most accurate. Minnesota is 52. 64 in the ratings he believes are most accurate. I guess we are playing another cupcake this week. ;)

By your definition, Air Force, Syracuse are cupcakes as well. Air Force (61,55 Sagarin) and Syracuse (95, 96 Sagarin).


I agree with Dpod....., don't sleep on MSU when they come to town. That team has a lot of talent, especially on the offensive side of the ball.
 

SelectionSunday said:
My impressions were a little different. I was at the Michigan State-Wisconsin game. The Spartans got handled. Final score was a mirage, game wasn't that close. Michigan State's issues are more on the defensive side of the ball than the offensive side of the ball (Cousins eventually will be a very good Big 10 QB). With no pass rush and not a strong secondary, so far Sparty's defense can make any QB look like a potential Heisman winner. I wouldn't bank on the Badgers' QB having a field day for 2 straight weeks. It'll still come down to the Gophers' ability/inability to stop the Badger running game, which I think they'll do.
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I wouldn't bank on him not having a field day. The road game is the unknown, but he has been very, very good. He is not the leading passer in the Big Ten by accident. Kid throws a great ball, even with pressure. Extremely accurate.

Stopping the running game will be key, obviously. I think the Badgers will be able to run the ball. We will know soon enough.
 




you mean 1-3 Fresno State?

GVBadger said:
If you think Fresno State and Northern Illinois are cupcakes, I am not sure how closely you follow college football.

Northern Illinois won at Purdue. You might say Purdue sucks, but they are a Big Ten team that Northern beat on the road.

Fresno State is ranked 50 in the Sagarin ratings. 34 in the ratings he believes are the most accurate. Minnesota is 52. 64 in the ratings he believes are most accurate. I guess we are playing another cupcake this week. ;)

By your definition, Air Force, Syracuse are cupcakes as well. Air Force (61,55 Sagarin) and Syracuse (95, 96 Sagarin).


I agree with Dpod....., don't sleep on MSU when they come to town. That team has a lot of talent, especially on the offensive side of the ball.
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MSU once again falls flat on their faces. Way over rated. How about the great Wofford? You seem to have left them off this list....as for Fresno, Sagrin's over weighted them at the start, and they are dropping like a stone. Face facts, you have played nobody, and this weekend will show us alot about both teams. This fact scares you to no end. this great Wisconsin schedule b.s. is yet another dodge.
 

I'll take the Gophers minus the points. We now have more talent and athleticism than WI, and the home field advantage. Of course anything can happen in a given 60 minutes, but it would take some real luck in addition to a good performance for WI to beat us now.
 

The great thing GV is what you & I think will have have zero bearing on who wins the football game.

My other question (for re3886) is, is it possible to be overrated when you were never rated in the first place? I don't remember seeing Michigan State in either the AP or coaches polls before the start of the season. No doubt, that doesn't excuse a home loss to CMU where you jump offsides on a field goal, but should Sparty close up shop on the rest of the season because they also lost on the road to Notre Dame (the equivalent of a middle-tier Big 10 team like the Gophers & NW) and Wisconsin (another middle-tier Big 10 team)?
 

Omega015 said:
First, are you giving MSU credit for losing to CMU? Also receiving votes? Seriously? Sparty was supposed to be a dark horse Big Ten champion, not almost better than a good MAC team.

By the way, I was talking about all-time overrated, not just right now. However, this season looks to be another disappointment for Sparty. CFN had a story a year or two ago where they ranked the most overrated programs of all-time and Michigan State finished #1, ahead of Notre Dame. Historically, no team fails to live up to the hype more than Michigan State. Beating ND at being overrated is no easy task.

It's much more likely that Michigan State is back to being mediocre this season than they are suddenly a powerhouse.
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My apologies on the first point. On my initial reading of your post, I thought you said "BCS". Their last four BCS opponents were Wis, ND, #16 GA, and #7 PSU. I personally refuse to call DI-A "FBS", so I tend to have a mental block around that and "FCS". My bad.

But I will still maintain my point that MSU is not overrated. I would rather have Dantonio than any other Big Ten coach, with the possible exception of Ferentz. (P.S. This is not a slam against Brewster. I love Brewster.) Sure, losing at home to CMU was a bad loss, but to be fair, CMU will probably win the MAC this year. So it's not like they're Cal Poly or anything.

As much as it pains me to say, give Wisconsin credit for beating an average Big Ten team in MSU. As for their non-conference schedule? Please.:rolleyes:
 


re3886 said:
MSU once again falls flat on their faces. Way over rated. How about the great Wofford? You seem to have left them off this list....as for Fresno, Sagrin's over weighted them at the start, and they are dropping like a stone. Face facts, you have played nobody, and this weekend will show us alot about both teams. This fact scares you to no end. this great Wisconsin schedule b.s. is yet another dodge.
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I get the whoever the Badgers played is bad and whoever the Gophers played is good argument. If that is what you believe, then I will never convince you otherwise.

Just trying to take the argument to another level, that is all. Throw in a little data with all the BS.

Badgers played Wofford, the Gophers will play South Dakota State. Can we agree both those teams are bad? If not, then maybe we should stop there.

The Gophers played Cal. Certainly a good opponent, not quite as good as they were believed to be the week before.

Let's look at the Sagarin ratings of the 3 opponents besides the 1-AA schools.

The ratings will be the ones Sagarin thinks are the most reliable.

Cal 18
Air Force 55
Syracuse 95

Fresno State 35
Northern Illinois 67
Hawaii 65

The number say the Gophers will play a slightly tougher NC schedule based on the Cal game. if you want to believe the Gophers schedule is brutal and the Badgers play all cupcakes, knock yourself out.
 

Saying the Badgers play only cupcakes may be an exaggeration, but the Badgers should be playing at least 1 legit marquee opponent every year in the NC. I am talking a perennial top 15 or so power, not a Fresno St that occasionally squeaks into the picture. The fact that UW rarely schedules a marquee NC game has cost them national credibility, even when they were good enough to deserve it.

UW is at a place where they should have a tougher NC schedule. The Gophers are arguably at a place where they should not, but give Brewster credit for having the cohones to put top teams on the schedule.
 

I'm surprised the Gophers are carrying this line. I thought Wisconsin's win over MSU would sway the bettors more than it did. Home field is the difference maker.

This game is HUGE! It's our first home conference game and can help make a statement both to future visiting teams and to the home town crowd. The two suspensions puts an added burden on the coaches and if we can win this game makes a statement to the team about the coach. Finally, a victory could have a real recruiting impact.
 

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