Discussion on transfer portal - Will Many Players be Disappointed?

[alchemy2u]

The transfer portal has opened up a whole new range of possibilities for players, but is it going to end in major disappointment for many players?

In general, players that enter the transfer portal are looking to upgrade their situation. Many have dreams of landing a spot on a better team, getting more exposure, more playing time or maybe even winning a championship. And all of the teams expect to improve by adding better players. In the past, teams have been able to pick up "late bloomers" from lower level teams to fill in immediate needs. A win/win for both the player and the new team.

The situation is much different this year with so many more players jumping into the portal. There is a lot of borderline players that may end up in situations that are worse than the spot they left. How many top P5 schools will be hungry to add a Jr that has been stuck in the 7th spot on a lower level P5 school? Add to that a full round of high school recruits that are coming in to compete with those of players that have been given an extra year. The supply of players is much greater than the availability of good landing spots.

I just get the impression that a lot of players will not be offered better opportunities than they already had at their current school. And most will not be welcomed back to their old school because of the lack of commitment and the glut of available players to replace them.

 

[Ski-U-Ham]

The transfer portal has opened up a whole new range of possibilities for players, but is it going to end in major disappointment for many players?

In general, players that enter the transfer portal are looking to upgrade their situation. Many have dreams of landing a spot on a better team, getting more exposure, more playing time or maybe even winning a championship. And all of the teams expect to improve by adding better players. In the past, teams have been able to pick up "late bloomers" from lower level teams to fill in immediate needs. A win/win for both the player and the new team.

The situation is much different this year with so many more players jumping into the portal. There is a lot of borderline players that may end up in situations that are worse than the spot they left. How many top P5 schools will be hungry to add a Jr that has been stuck in the 7th spot on a lower level P5 school? Add to that a full round of high school recruits that are coming in to compete with those of players that have been given an extra year. The supply of players is much greater than the availability of good landing spots.

I just get the impression that a lot of players will not be offered better opportunities than they already had at their current school. And most will not be welcomed back to their old school because of the lack of commitment and the glut of available players to replace them.

In a normal year, I could see lot of the movement working itself out. High majors moving down, mid majors moving up, and some movement within each. This year's unknown is the logjam that could form with the extra COVID year. There will be transfer portal players, as well as some fringe DI high school players, left holding the bag and having to settle.

 

[WoodburyTim]

How will the fans react to the transfer portal and the mass movement of players? At the end of the day, the only necessary group to make big time athletics work is the paying fanbase. The players and schools are taking the fans for granted. An interesting tactic when college athletics, even pre-COVID, was having trouble getting fans to show up and watch.

A team like Kentucky or NC that reloads every year keeps their fans because they win National Championships. Not everybody can win every year. Do fans want to watch teams that are essentially JUCOS that have a different roster every year? Well nobody watches JUCOS so I am guessing not.

I know I'll get a bunch of responses on here that will say I will watch my Gophers till I die even if I have to learn the roster every year. And to tell the truth, I might even agree with that, but I also know that all of us diehards on GI or Gopherhole don't even get close to generating enough revenue to sustain big time sports. And the casual college fans follow careers and free movement of players is going to destroy that, like it or not.

Everybody wants to say players should be able to move freely and be paid because it sounds good and "fair", but there will be ramifications for the new system. That is just the truth.

 

[60's Guy]

Life is largely determined by the decisions you make. Many are going to be disappointed.
When parents get divorced kids suffer.
I’m sure depending on the player, when coaches get fired players feel responsible.
Not all, but some. Or they just are not happy.
Then a change of scenery is likely best even if it seems like a lesser move to those on the outside.
Every situation is different.

 

[MNVCGUY]

It will be really interested to see what ends up happening to the large number of players that won't end up getting a better offer. Will teams take them back or will they suddenly find their college basketball or college football career is over because they were not content to stay put?

I can understand why players want to look around for a better option but I don't see how this doesn't end with a lot of guys left in limbo just based on the extreme number of players that have put their name in the portal.

 

[Block M]

The college basketball model seems to be on the verge of collapse. The on-the-court product is terrible; roster/coaching turnover insane; and pay-for-play momentum seemingly unstoppable. Fan loyalties/interest being tested to the max.

 

[gophereric30]

The fact that some of these guys are testing the waters is ridiculous.

 

[Holy Man]

This is obviously a unique year with both numbers of transfers and numbers of players available with the extra year. I can easily see many guys hanging up their shoes if it doesn’t go like they want it to and being okay with that.

I’m anti transfer without restriction as a rule for a lot of reasons but I am hesitant to apply a universal trend based on this year. The extra year and what so many guys experienced this year in isolation has me surmising that there is more to this for many of them than just a better basketball opportunity. The couple of first hand accounts I’ve heard relay human situations of the players that are much more difficult than most of us appreciate. After a year like that I can see why a guy would seek a change of scenery and maybe try to get closer to home. It also has me being more compassionate to the opt out guys, who I thought were making excuses.

The landscape is changing but I would not assume that this year is the model for the future. If the players want all that freedom of movement they also need to be held accountable for a commitment on their end, be subject to non compete agreements, etc.

Tangentially I really wonder how many in the portal are super committed to transfer and how many are in with encouragement of coach and an invitation to return if they don’t get something better. This is almost a no risk venture for players while it puts the system into chaos.

 

[leib0039]

The portal is like applying for a new job. You know that no matter what the result of the interview, you have a guaranteed job still. Meanwhile maybe one team is desperate or you just hit it at the right time and you get a nice pay raise.

As far as the kids being disappointed, I'm not sure how they can be. You either go "up" to what you think is a better chance to win or get publicized or you go "down" and you go from a 7th man in the B1G to the second leading scorer on a team in the SoCon.

 

[HopHead]

Like Jerry Seinfeld said regarding professional sports is becoming true for college basketball: We are rooting for laundry.

 

[cjbfbp]

I know I'll get a bunch of responses on here that will say I will watch my Gophers till I die even if I have to learn the roster every year. And to tell the truth, I might even agree with that, but I also know that all of us diehards on GI or Gopherhole don't even get close to generating enough revenue to sustain big time sports. And the casual college fans follow careers and free movement of players is going to destroy that, like it or not.

Everybody wants to say players should be able to move freely and be paid because it sounds good and "fair", but there will be ramifications for the new system. That is just the truth.

In any discussion of change, you will always find traditionalists who insist that these changes will result in the world going to hell in a hand basket.

Yes, there will be ramifications but we don't know what those will be yet. You also have to remember that many people watch or attend games because it's something to do or it's a social activity (their friends or significant others do it so they do too). They are not so emotionally invested in this or that player.

I do agree that, unless your program is a blue blood, reloading every year likely does hurt the chances of continued success and that hurts fan support. But we weren't having much success anyway.

 

[cjbfbp]

Like Jerry Seinfeld said regarding professional sports is becoming true for college basketball: We are rooting for laundry.

Very good, thank you! Leave it to the master of finding humor in every situation.

 

[cjbfbp]

Tangentially I really wonder how many in the portal are super committed to transfer and how many are in with encouragement of coach and an invitation to return if they don’t get something better. This is almost a no risk venture for players while it puts the system into chaos.

I went to Verbal Commits for 2020 transfers and scanned A through L of the listings showing both the transfer and destination schools. There were 1025 D1 transfers listed for 2020 so my guess is that I scanned between 400-500 of them. I didn't find a single player who ended up at his old school.

There were a minority of players who didn't have a destination school listed. I tested about five or six of those to see if they were still with their old schools this year. None of them were.

I'm sure there are players who announce an intent to transfer but end up back at their old schools (Matz is an example) but my guess it that outcome is a lot rarer than some people around here think.

 

[SelectionSunday]

How will the fans react to the transfer portal and the mass movement of players? At the end of the day, the only necessary group to make big time athletics work is the paying fanbase. The players and schools are taking the fans for granted. An interesting tactic when college athletics, even pre-COVID, was having trouble getting fans to show up and watch.

A team like Kentucky or NC that reloads every year keeps their fans because they win National Championships. Not everybody can win every year. Do fans want to watch teams that are essentially JUCOS that have a different roster every year? Well nobody watches JUCOS so I am guessing not.

I know I'll get a bunch of responses on here that will say I will watch my Gophers till I die even if I have to learn the roster every year. And to tell the truth, I might even agree with that, but I also know that all of us diehards on GI or Gopherhole don't even get close to generating enough revenue to sustain big time sports. And the casual college fans follow careers and free movement of players is going to destroy that, like it or not.

Everybody wants to say players should be able to move freely and be paid because it sounds good and "fair", but there will be ramifications for the new system. That is just the truth.

This is 100% spot on. Well thought out post.

 

[MNVCGUY]

The portal is like applying for a new job. You know that no matter what the result of the interview, you have a guaranteed job still. Meanwhile maybe one team is desperate or you just hit it at the right time and you get a nice pay raise.

As far as the kids being disappointed, I'm not sure how they can be. You either go "up" to what you think is a better chance to win or get publicized or you go "down" and you go from a 7th man in the B1G to the second leading scorer on a team in the SoCon.

Except that if you go in the portal your old team doesn't have to take you back. Plus there is no guarantee some low level school is going to find a spot for you as well if you cant find an upgrade.

Don't see how there are not a number of disappointed players left with no good options when this is all said and done. There were stories with football about guys who didn't find a landing spot.

 

[MplsGopher]

Do fans want to watch teams ... that have a different roster every year?

That is taking it all the way to the extreme. I think most teams won't be that extreme on turnover.

The NBA teams, minus their stars, turn over quite a bit year to year, and people still watch that, don't they?

And the casual college fans follow careers and free movement of players is going to destroy that, like it or not.

Well, this is the big hypothesis and test, isn't it?

I disagree, personally. I say casual fans care more about their school (in a "provincialism" sort of way) and the name on the front of the uniform, than the name on the back.

We shall see.

 

[MNVCGUY]

The college basketball model seems to be on the verge of collapse. The on-the-court product is terrible; roster/coaching turnover insane; and pay-for-play momentum seemingly unstoppable. Fan loyalties/interest being tested to the max.

I don't know that this just applies to college basketball. Sports in general has a lot of issues as it is getting harder and harder to get fans to pay the insane costs it requires in order to go to games. And at the pro level with free agency you don't have guys sticking in one spot as long in order for the fans to really grow attached to them.

For college sports in general I don't think the roster turnover is as big a deal because in college sports the roster is always turning over anyway.

 

[alchemy2u]

As players gather more flexibility in how they get to move around, schools will also need to adapt and may not be as loyal to non-productive players. Obviously, schools will be very selective on who they allow to transfer into the team, but may be more likely to casting off players that do not play. More coached will Crean their teams. Like most changes, it will benefit the "stars" and hurt the many of the other players.

 

[alchemy2u]

Except that if you go in the portal your old team doesn't have to take you back. Plus there is no guarantee some low level school is going to find a spot for you as well if you cant find an upgrade.

Don't see how there are not a number of disappointed players left with no good options when this is all said and done. There were stories with football about guys who didn't find a landing spot.

Exactly.

 

[MplsGopher]

you don't have guys sticking in one spot as long in order for the fans to really grow attached to them.

I guess I don't see why this should be important.

Shouldn't fans love the team?

 

[paulser21]

How will the fans react to the transfer portal and the mass movement of players? At the end of the day, the only necessary group to make big time athletics work is the paying fanbase. The players and schools are taking the fans for granted. An interesting tactic when college athletics, even pre-COVID, was having trouble getting fans to show up and watch.

A team like Kentucky or NC that reloads every year keeps their fans because they win National Championships. Not everybody can win every year. Do fans want to watch teams that are essentially JUCOS that have a different roster every year? Well nobody watches JUCOS so I am guessing not.

I know I'll get a bunch of responses on here that will say I will watch my Gophers till I die even if I have to learn the roster every year. And to tell the truth, I might even agree with that, but I also know that all of us diehards on GI or Gopherhole don't even get close to generating enough revenue to sustain big time sports. And the casual college fans follow careers and free movement of players is going to destroy that, like it or not.

Everybody wants to say players should be able to move freely and be paid because it sounds good and "fair", but there will be ramifications for the new system. That is just the truth.

People don’t watch JUCI because there isn’t an emotional investment like there are to the big schools. I didn’t attend the U of M and am from the Rochester area. I never watched a single RCTC game even though a good friend of the family was the head coach there. It was all Gopher or Badger basketball (went to college for a few years in La Crosse and was forced to watch Badger games). And I don’t recall ever seeing a JUCO Game on tv aside from some championship games.

I’m not a fan of the any time transfer rule. I hope it’s a one year COVID related thing.

However, I could see some fans excited to see some of the new transfers and how they pan out.

 

[MNVCGUY]

I guess I don't see why this should be important.

Shouldn't fans love the team?

There is going to be a certain level of just blind loyalty to the team itself. But the attachment is typically driven by the players on that team.

As a pro sports fan you really get attached to those guys that stay put in one place for a long period of time. You remember the guys who played for your favorite team for multiple years, you don't typically wax nostalgic about guys who came for a year and then went somewhere else.

I've been a Twins fan since I was a kid.....but when I think about the teams I grew up watching I don't think back fondly on the guys who came in for a year or two and then moved on to somewhere else. I remember guys like Puckett, Gaetti, Hrbek......guys who spent a big chunk of their career playing for the Twins.

 

[hungan1]

Whether by force or will, entering the Transfer Portal is a double edged sword.

Some kids are bound to get trapped in the portal without a scholarship which is unfortunate.

 

[hungan1]

There is going to be a certain level of just blind loyalty to the team itself. But the attachment is typically driven by the players on that team.

As a pro sports fan you really get attached to those guys that stay put in one place for a long period of time. You remember the guys who played for your favorite team for multiple years, you don't typically wax nostalgic about guys who came for a year and then went somewhere else.

I've been a Twins fan since I was a kid.....but when I think about the teams I grew up watching I don't think back fondly on the guys who came in for a year or two and then moved on to somewhere else. I remember guys like Puckett, Gaetti, Hrbek......guys who spent a big chunk of their career playing for the Twins.

If I had purchased an expensive Stefon Diggs jersey before he was traded, I'd be one p%ss#d off fan.

 

[cjbfbp]

I remember guys like Puckett, Gaetti, Hrbek......guys who spent a big chunk of their career playing for the Twins.

Those guys were good players and a number of their teams were successful. What if they had stunk and their teams were lousy?

College players simply don't have very long tenures anyway and less now than they used to. There's a trade-off here. Many players won't be around long (you'll be sad about that for some and grateful for that with others) but you will get to experience more players so you'll have a greater sense of novelty each season.