Current CollegeRPI.com Projected RPIs

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SelectionSunday

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For sh*ts and giggles, as of this morning the final projected RPIs (with final regular-season record) of the Big Ten's perceived top 7 squads:

15. Purdue (26-5, 15-3)
18. Ohio State (27-4, 14-4)
21. Wisconsin (24-6, 14-4)
26. Illinois (23-8, 13-5)
35. Minnesota (23-7, 12-6)
45. Michigan State (19-10, 12-6)
106. Northwestern (17-12, 7-11)

Raise your hand if you'd take a 23-7, 12-6 finish by the Gophers. (my hand is raised skyward)
 

Raising hand

way up high

Have we won 12 Big Ten games in any year:confused: since the mythical 1997 season?
 

For this to happen:

Blake need to shoot more. And better.
Trevor needs to shoot more. And better.
Rodney.....

I know, I know, I'm being Mr. Obvious here......
 

A more troubling projection from Ken Pomeroy's rankings:

Ohio State 29-2 (16-2)
Purdue 24-6 (13-5)
Illinois 21-10 (11-7)
Michigan State 19-11 (11-7)
Wisconsin 21-9 (11-7)
Minnesota 18-12 (7-11)
Michigan 17-13 (7-11)
Northwestern 16-12 (7-11)
Iowa 13-17 (6-12)
Penn State 12-17 (5-13)
Indiana 16-18 (4-14)
 



Currently I'd put the over-under somewhere in between (10 conference wins) those two projections.
 

I bet Purdue would be thrilled with a 15-3 conference finish with no Hummel. Not sure how that projection happened but it would be sweet to see the Gophers win 12...but I'm not real optimistic. 11-4 the rest of the way is a pipe dream, possible the same pipe that got Joseph suspended the first 6 games this season (I'm assuming it was drugs)
 

tjgopher said:
A more troubling projection from Ken Pomeroy's rankings:

Ohio State 29-2 (14-2)
Purdue 24-6 (13-5)
Illinois 21-10 (11-7)
Michigan State 19-11 (11-7)
Wisconsin 21-9 (11-7)
Minnesota 18-12 (7-11)
Michigan 17-13 (7-11)
Northwestern 16-12 (7-11)
Iowa 13-17 (6-12)
Penn State 12-17 (5-13)
Indiana 16-18 (4-14)
Click to expand...


Hmmm so he is suggesting only 5 Big 10 teams make the dance...
 

Seniorsmoke said:
Hmmm so he is suggesting only 5 Big 10 teams make the dance...
Click to expand...

Technically, he's not suggesting it. His computer formulas are suggesting. His formulas have been a fairly good predictor of season progress over the years, which is why this projection is troubling. His formula differs from the RPI.
 




tjgopher said:
A more troubling projection from Ken Pomeroy's rankings:

Ohio State 29-2 (14-2)
Purdue 24-6 (13-5)
Illinois 21-10 (11-7)
Michigan State 19-11 (11-7)
Wisconsin 21-9 (11-7)
Minnesota 18-12 (7-11)
Michigan 17-13 (7-11)
Northwestern 16-12 (7-11)
Iowa 13-17 (6-12)
Penn State 12-17 (5-13)
Indiana 16-18 (4-14)
Click to expand...

Does this mean that two of OSU's games are going to be cancelled?

Seriously, I still think 13-5 wins this conference.
 


Pretty strange with OSU..

Looking at his team projections for them they're undefeated yet the total indicates two losses?
 



Gonna take 14 wins minimum to win the B1G. Probably 15.
 

Reserve said:
Pretty strange with OSU..

Looking at his team projections for them they're undefeated yet the total indicates two losses?
Click to expand...
edit: Oh, I see what you're saying. Check the disclaimer at the bottom: "Projected record is based on cumulative probabilities of winning each game and may not equal the individual game predictions."

Their actual chance to go undefeated, according to KenPom, is about 8.5%.
 

tjgopher said:
A more troubling projection from Ken Pomeroy's rankings:

Ohio State 29-2 (16-2)
Purdue 24-6 (13-5)
Illinois 21-10 (11-7)
Michigan State 19-11 (11-7)
Wisconsin 21-9 (11-7)
Minnesota 18-12 (7-11)
Michigan 17-13 (7-11)
Northwestern 16-12 (7-11)
Iowa 13-17 (6-12)
Penn State 12-17 (5-13)
Indiana 16-18 (4-14)
Click to expand...

The next two games will pretty much dictate how the season unfolds. They lose both of them then 7-11 or 8-10 looks about right. If they can win at home against Purdue then the NCAA is a possibility.
 

Apparently somebody forgot to tell the people at CollegeRPI.com that Robbie Hummel is out for the year and Purdue sucks and can't score.
 

Both projections have them with an undefeated non-conf, with all losses coming from conference play. Either you're confused or I am.
Click to expand...

Unfortunately I am generally confused, however, is the game plan and projected record not a cumulative record of wins and losses? I'm hoping I put that right. Looking at the projection for OSU

http://www.kenpom.com/team.php?team=Ohio St.

Where are the losses? He's showing every game as win.

Edit - Gotcha rcpratt. :)

Apparently somebody forgot to tell the people at CollegeRPI.com that Robbie Hummel is out for the year and Purdue sucks and can't score.
Click to expand...

I'll let him know. :)
 

Anderson8284 said:
way up high

Have we won 12 Big Ten games in any year:confused: since the mythical 1997 season?
Click to expand...

It's a little tough to compare since many of the years since were played with only a 16 game BT schedule instead of the 18 now, but percentage-wise I believe it would be our best BT performance since 97.
 

Are you really worried about that? I highly doubt we were projected to make the tournament most of last year.

tjgopher said:
Technically, he's not suggesting it. His computer formulas are suggesting. His formulas have been a fairly good predictor of season progress over the years, which is why this projection is troubling. His formula differs from the RPI.
Click to expand...
 

underground629 said:
Are you really worried about that?
Click to expand...

It is a little concerning given the success rate that his effeciency formulas have had over the years.

underground629 said:
I highly doubt we were projected to make the tournament most of last year.
Click to expand...

Well, until we beat Purdue on Saturday of the Big Ten Tournament we weren't going to make the NCAA Tournament last year and even then it was uncomfortably dicey. So, those projections would have been spot on.

And, of course, there are exceptions to every computer formula in relation to projections, so let's hope the Gophers are an exception this year.
 

You don't want to live on the bubble every year. The thing that got the Gophers in last season instead of Illinois is they had a lot better record against the top teams in the Big Ten (Gophs were 1-2 vs. OSU, 1-2 vs. MSU, 1-2 vs. Purdue; compare to Illinois' 0-3 vs. OSU, 1-1 vs. MSU, and 0-2 vs. Purdue) - you might not think that 3-6 instead of 1-6 makes that much of a difference, but when you're on the bubble, there aren't a lot of teams that have three wins vs. BCS conference champions & that's a nuanced but highly important fact - the typical bubble team that bubbles out just doesn't have more than one win against those sort of teams. So even though Illinois had a better record in the Big Ten last year, they had wins against (for example) Michigan instead of, say OSU or Purdue. Clearly a team with a slightly worse record that has a few marquee wins gets in the field ahead of a team with a better record but without the same quality of wins at the top of the resume. So the Gophers will need to get wins against the likes of OSU, MSU, Purdue and Illinois in order to make the field this year - the precise conference record is less important than the quality of wins at the top of the resume.
 

jovs said:
The next two games will pretty much dictate how the season unfolds. They lose both of them then 7-11 or 8-10 looks about right. If they can win at home against Purdue then the NCAA is a possibility.
Click to expand...

+1. Time to show some grit against a good opponent at home. After Indiana I'm skeptical...but this team has talent and experience. I like having Mbakwe as a true PF and if Rodney can step it up - which I personally believe he can - we can take on tough teams and win. DJ might be a presence lost on the offensive end, but defensively he was a liability (anyone who disagrees with this hasn't been watching games).

The game against OSU will be very informative for the Gophs and I am expecting good things. That could just be me being a bias Gopher fan, though.
 


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