Could two Big Ten Conference teams make the College Football Playoff?

[BleedGopher]

per Nathan:

With all three of those teams idle in the week ahead — and Clemson assured of that fourth spot assuming it somehow sneaks past FCS Wofford — there does not appear to be much drama for that Nov. 5 reveal.

Perhaps the one wrinkle is whether Penn State — 8-0 just like all of the above and possessing wins over three top-30 opponents per the Sagarin rating — is more worthy of a top-four spot than any of the teams above.

Furthermore, could any scenarios result in the Big Ten sending two teams into the national semifinals?

Only once before have two teams from the same conference made the playoff. In 2017, Georgia was the 3 seed and Alabama the 4 seed, and those teams played for the national championship.

Let us first consider Penn State’s candidacy on its own.

The Nittany Lions’ 8-0 record includes three top-30 Sagarin victories: at Iowa (16) and Michigan State (23) and home against Michigan (10). Even considering Sagarin’s apparent fascination with the Mitten State, that’s solid work. Throw in 59-0 at Maryland and even that hard-fought 17-10 home win over a decent Pittsburgh squad and the Lions’ resume has some legitimacy.

What about Minnesota? The Gophers’ best victory per Sagarin so far is a home win over No. 53 Nebraska. Their current resume is more similar to Baylor or SMU or Appalachian State than the other Big Ten undefeateds.

https://www.cleveland.com/osu/2019/...-teams-make-the-college-football-playoff.html

Go Gophers!!

 

[Otis]

The only way two teams could make the top 4 are the following scenarios:

Penn State only loses to Ohio State and the Buckeyes go unbeaten through the B1G championship along with LSU beating Bama and Bama losing to Auburn along with LSU destroying whoever in the SEC championship. Big 12 would have to have a 1 loss Baylor team win after losing in regular season to Oklahoma. Can't have a 1 loss SEC team after the champion.
That way:
LSU
Clemson
Ohio State
Penn State

Scenario 2:

Gophers run the table and somehow beat OSU in the B1G in a very close game. SEC has a unbeaten champ and 0 1 loss teams, Clemson goes undefeated and Baylor wins the Big 12 after losing the regular season game with Oklahoma.
Final 4:
LSU/BAMA
Clemson
Minnesota
Ohio State

I give scenario 1 about a 10% chance of happening.

Scenario II has about a 0.0001% chance of happening.

 

[Some guy]

Yes.
Penn State wins out.
Minnesota wins about except Penn state game.


Minnesota wins big ten title over Penn state.


That’s is the way the Big Ten gets two.
Minnesota in by winning the conference with one loss.
11-1 Ohio State gets in too

 

[RememberMurray]

The only B1G team with the pedigree to make the CFP with a loss, without winning the conference championship, is Ohio State. My opinion only, of course.

Penn State will have two losses this season, and the first loss is coming up pretty soon — so they're out.

12-1 Ohio State and 13-0 Minnesota will both make the CFP.

Just my opinion.



But... it's gonna happen.

 

[DEGopher]

B1G only chance for two is if Gophers win out (undefeated record), and OhSt’s only loss is to the Gophers. Also, loser of Bama vs LSU has to lose another.

 

[Dano564]

Gophers lose to PSU. Win out.

OSU beats PSU.

Gophers roll OSU.

All teams with one loss.
Minnesota the Champion
PSU and OSU both with cases.

That would be the most complicated scenario, but unless MN is the BTT winner, we would go unless we win the title, or there simply aren't many unbeaten or 1 loss teams.

Even then I could see a 2-loss SEC team ahead of a 1 loss, non-BTT Winning Gopher team.

 

[DEGopher]

Gophers lose to PSU. Win out.

OSU beats PSU.

Gophers roll OSU.

All teams with one loss.
Minnesota the Champion
PSU and OSU both with cases.

That would be the most complicated scenario, but unless MN is the BTT winner, we would go unless we win the title, or there simply aren't many unbeaten or 1 loss teams.

Even then I could see a 2-loss SEC team ahead of a 1 loss, non-BTT Winning Gopher team.

No. Even in your scenario, it only works if the loser between Bama & LSU have another loss.

 

[Dano564]

No. Even in your scenario, it only works if the loser between Bama & LSU have another loss.

Yes. That would need to happen.
My scenario would have to be when there is only 1 unbeaten and maybe a couple other 1 loss teams who could not be from the SEC.

 

[BeerFueledFF]

For this to happen, we likely need something like the following:

In the SEC -

Georgia beats Florida
LSU beats Alabama
Auburn beats Georgia
Auburn beats Alabama
LSU beats Georgia in the SEC title game

ACC - Clemson wins out

Big 12 -
Baylor loses a random game, such as @TCU next week
Baylor beats Oklahoma
Oklahoma beats Baylor in the title game

PAC -
Utah loses to Washington
Oregon loses to USC
Oregon beats USC in the title game

Leaves everyone but Clemson and LSU with 2 losses, and then 2 one loss Big Ten teams get in

This is also super convoluted and unlikely.

 

[Some guy]

The only way for the big ten to get two is for Minnesota or Penn State to win the big ten as an unbeaten or 1 loss team and Ohio State to be a one loss team that didn’t lose the big ten championship game.


Meaning, Ohio state has to lose to penn state in the regular season in a close game.
And then Minnesota or penn State go unbeaten.