Comparing last year and this year with KenPom

[zambam]

So, I just made a post in another thread where I use a lot of numbers from KenPom and I figured I'd expand that post to the entire team and compare with last year's team. The stats I'm using are from the KenPom team page which you need a subscription to access, so I can't link sorry. Team stats I'll look strictly at conference stats, but I do not believe this option extends to the player stats. Also note that last year's stats will include all games played, where as this year there are games yet to be played. And for the sake of clarity, anywhere that I am interjecting my opinion or comment on anything I will use italics like I have here.

Team stats: The similarities
Offensively, both teams ranked last in the conference in Steal% (percentage of times the ball is stolen from them). 2014 has a Stl% of 11.2%, 2013 has a Stl% of 12.1% Neither are good. 2014 ranks 11th in Turnover% at 20.2%, 2013 ranked 12th at 21.3%. 2014 3P% is 33.2% and 2013 is 32.8%. Both ranked 5th in eFG%, 2014 at 50.4% and 2013 at 48%.
Defensively, 2014 gives up an eFG% of 48.6% and 2013 an eFG% of 48.3% apparently the .3% lower was good enough for 2013 to be ranked at 7th rather than the 8th 2014 is ranked at. TO% for 2014 is 16.2% (8th) and 2013 is 16.9% (9th). OR% given up for 2014 is 31.7% and 2013 is 31.4%. Surprisingly, 2013 ranked at 5th and 2014 at 11th. The Big Ten seems to have gotten much better at getting defensive rebounds. 3P% for 2014 is 36.7% and 2013 is 36.9%, 2014 ranked 11th and 2013 ranked 12th. Both 3rd in 2P%, with 2014 at 45.2% and 2013 at 44.3%. 2014 defensive possession length is 19.4 seconds and 2013 is 19.3 seconds.
I believe the similarities end here. Both teams are bad at taking care of the ball, and the Stl% being so high offensively means they are giving up way too many fast breaks with the turnovers. The defensive 3P% agrees a lot with what I thought going in, the other team always seems to be hitting a lot of 3s against the Gophers. Despite the narrative of Pitino's defense forcing more turnovers, the team has actually stayed at about the same level.

The major differences:
will list like this from now on: 2013 stat to 2014 stat
Offensive OR%: 41% to 31.3%
O FTA/FGA: 39.4 to 34.6 (this is the ratio multiplied by 100)
O FT%: 65.7% to 72.2%
O Blk%: 9% to 13.4%
Defensive FTA/FGA: 39.1 to 45.6
D Blk%: 15.8% to 12%
This team got worse in all the wrong categories. Less offensive rebounds, less free throws, and getting blocked more does not create good offense. Giving up more free throws and blocking less shots in my mind means you are giving the opponent more easy opportunities to score.

So what's the big difference? Well, most people here can probably see it already. Trevor Mbakwe played at the 5 and Rodney Williams played at the 4 last year, whereas this year Elliott Elliason is playing at the 5 and (now) Joey King is playing at the 4. Trevor Mbakwe was a fair shot blocker at 6.7% and Rodney Williams was slightly lower at 5.5%. Last year's team still had Elliason at his 9.4% and Andre Ingram at his 4.3%. That's a pretty good shot-blocking front court. This year Elliott has a great (in my opinion) Blk% at 10.8% but the next closest is Mo at 6.3% and then Austin and Oto at 2%. Despite Elliott's efforts, our PF's this year are just too poor of shot blockers.
It's possible the defensive FTA/FGA is linked here as well. The team isn't blocking as many shots because they are fouling more instead? King, Mo and Elliott (all 3 using major minutes now) have a Fouls Committed/40 minutes of higher than 5 whereas last year the only ones that did (EE and Ingram) didn't see major minutes.
The offensive rebounding problem can easily be tacked on here as well. We all know how well Trevor rebounded, his 15.7% was good enough for 12th in the country. Elliott has done a reasonable job in trying to replace him, with an OR% of 11.7% (150th in the country). Mo has also stepped up at 12.6% (not ranked due to having a %Minutes of less than 40%). After these two we see a massive drop off where next highest is Austin at 6.8%. Mo and Elliott are never are never on the floor together however, so the second highest we ever have on the floor is Austin's 6.8%. This just isn't enough, because Rodney last year had an OR% was 9.4%. What's more, last year's team was the best offensive rebounding team in the country.
Offensive FTA/FGA is easy: Trevor had a ridiculous FTRate of his own last year at 73.8. He shot A LOT of free throws. The highest this year is Dre at 51.9. This also explains the bump in FT%, Dre shoots the most free throws and is much better at it than Trevor.
Offensive Block% difference is all speculation on my part: Trevor was uber aggressive and Rodney could jump over most people. Elliott and Mo are not as aggressive and no one on this team is jumping over anyone. Also last year's team didn't have a 5'9" guy running the point (love Little Dre but short guys get blocked more).

Either way, I think the major problems this year compared to last year are Oto and Joey at PF. I think the lack of a good PF is the reason this year's team isn't making the tournament (speculation, but I've thought this all year) and last year's team did.

If anyone wants anything else from these stats (player stats especially) let me know. I listed most of the team stats, but there are a ton of player stats.

 

[EG#9]

Does KenPom keep any stats on unforced turnovers? If they do I'd be interested to see where the Gophers rank in that category. I know GW posted about the Gophers being low in creating non-steal turnovers, I wonder if they are high in giving up non-steal turnovers? Still non-steals are not necessarily unforced. It doesn't bother me as much when the other team makes a nice trap on the ball and a player throws it out of bounds as at least the defense contributed to that play. What kills me about the Gophers is the turnovers like Austin travelling every game, Malik shuffling his feet while trying to shoot a three, Elliott and Austin stepping over the in bounds line with the ball, Andre deciding to throw a pass up the sideline to an unsuspecting player on a semi-break only to see the ball go out of bounds, Mo dropping a perfect pass out of bounds, etc, etc. The Gophers have committed so many of these careless/nervous/choking style turnovers over the past two years.

Great stats though overall, its interesting (and frustrating) to see how many of the stats are virtually identical from last seasons disappointing team. I didn't picture a Pitino team going for 54 points or fewer in three consecutive games, but here we are. I agree somewhat with your conclusion about the weak play at the 4 being the main culprit in the differences between '13 and '14.

Thanks for posting these.

 

[WanderingGopher]

I think the lack of a good PF is the reason this year's team isn't making the tournament (speculation, but I've thought this all year).

Not getting Buckles was the difference between making the NCAA and not. I said that 6 months ago and maintain the same thing today. The NCAA f*cked us.

 

[zambam]

Does KenPom keep any stats on unforced turnovers? If they do I'd be interested to see where the Gophers rank in that category. I know GW posted about the Gophers being low in creating non-steal turnovers, I wonder if they are high in giving up non-steal turnovers? Still non-steals are not necessarily unforced. It doesn't bother me as much when the other team makes a nice trap on the ball and a player throws it out of bounds as at least the defense contributed to that play. What kills me about the Gophers is the turnovers like Austin travelling every game, Malik shuffling his feet while trying to shoot a three, Elliott and Austin stepping over the in bounds line with the ball, Andre deciding to throw a pass up the sideline to an unsuspecting player on a semi-break only to see the ball go out of bounds, Mo dropping a perfect pass out of bounds, etc, etc. The Gophers have committed so many of these careless/nervous/choking style turnovers over the past two years.

Great stats though overall, its interesting (and frustrating) to see how many of the stats are virtually identical from last seasons disappointing team. I didn't picture a Pitino team going for 54 points or fewer in three consecutive games, but here we are. I agree somewhat with your conclusion about the weak play at the 4 being the main culprit in the differences between '13 and '14.

Thanks for posting these.

No he doesn't keep unforced turnovers, but if you just want turnovers that aren't steals we have a Turnover% of 20.2% and Steal% of 11.2% so 9% of our turnovers aren't explained by steals.

For players he also has Turnover Rate, but that doesn't differentiate between steals and any other turnover. Mathieu turns the ball over the most, but the rest of the team still has a high turnover rate. The only one with a relatively low turnover rate is Malik Smith, but he shoots the most.

 

[The-Real-Truth]

This a type of work that drug companies to to convince FDA to get their approval. They set up a few variables and make their comparisons. That's why we see so many drugs with so many side effects. Stats results are good but I am not a big fan of them.

Until the situation is 100% identical, no accurate conclusion can be made. This is very objective while being so subjective.