Colorado State heading into last year

[eker0016]

Last year if I was a Colorado State fan I would have been wondering where my scoring/minutes were coming from. The previous year stats of the guys who ended up fueling their NCAA run (guys who played 15+ mpg and were part of the rotation in the tournaments:

Nique Clifford: 36 starts, 30 minutes, 12 points -> 36 starts, 35 minutes, 19 points
Jalen Lake: 4 starts, 23 minutes, 6 points -> 36 starts, 31 minutes, 11 points
Kyan Evans: 0 starts (9 games total), 6 minutes, 2 points -> 36 starts, 28 minutes, 11 points
Jaylen Crocker-Johnson (at Little Rock): 33 starts, 23 minutes, 9 points -> 29 starts, 22 minutes, 9 points
Rashaan Mbemba: 2 starts, 11 minutes, 4 points -> 29 starts, 19 minutes, 7 points
Ethan Morton (at Purdue): 0 starts, 10 minutes, 1 point -> 9 starts, 24 minutes, 4 points
Bowen Born (at Northern Iowa): 31 starts, 28 minutes, 13 points -> 0 starts, 15 minutes, 5 points

There were a couple other guys, Kyle Jorgensen a freshman from Minnesota, and Keshawn Williams from Northern Illinois) but their minutes faded as the season went on and the rotation tightened. Ethan Morton also lost his starting job but stayed in the rotation.

I kinda think we are done with the formation of our core rotation. I expect we will add a couple more depth/role/developmental guys but I don't think we have a big money star walking through that door. Niko seems to be big on developing/elevating guys. I'm curious to see if we have an alpha guy step up, a la Clifford/Isaiah Stevens/David Roddy/Robert Tonje or if it is a more balanced approach, as it seems like Durkin/Omot/Reynolds/Willis could all trade nights as our top scorer. I'm also really intrigued to see how Asuma develops as well as Nehemiah Turner.

Also I was interested to see that a few guys I thought would have larger roles like Keshawn Williams (scored 18 ppg at Northern Illinois), Bowen Born (15 ppg at Northern Iowa) and Ethan Morton (started 29 games for the #1 seed Boilermakers 2 years ago) did not while some of the guys who developed in Niko's program earned the minutes instead.

 

[SplitDecision]

I think you're right about the core being established. Its a new era in college bb, and coaches have to keep tighter rotations with more playing time per guy.
That said, do you have any predictions for production based on last year's data of players coming to MN lineup? Noteworthy stats shown.

Willis 16.8pts/5.8asst/72.4%FT
Reynolds 8.6pts/41%3s
Crocker-Johnson 9pts/4.4reb/35.4%3s/76%FT
Durkin 11pts/5.2reb/35.5%3s/85.3%FT
Omot 10.8pts
Asuma 5.6pts/2.9reb/35.7%3s
Vaihola 7.6pts/7reb/62.9%FG
Turner 8.5pts/4.2reb
(Garcia) 19.2pts/7.5reb/37.3%3s/78.3%FT
Grove, Shinholster ?

 

[bga1]

I think you're right about the core being established. Its a new era in college bb, and coaches have to keep tighter rotations with more playing time per guy.
That said, do you have any predictions for production based on last year's data of players coming to MN lineup? Noteworthy stats shown.

Willis 16.8pts/5.8asst/72.4%FT
Reynolds 8.6pts/41%3s
Crocker-Johnson 9pts/4.4reb/35.4%3s/76%FT
Durkin 11pts/5.2reb/35.5%3s/85.3%FT
Omot 10.8pts
Asuma 5.6pts/2.9reb/35.7%3s
Vaihola 7.6pts/7reb/62.9%FG
Turner 8.5pts/4.2reb
(Garcia) 19.2pts/7.5reb/37.3%3s/78.3%FT
Grove, Shinholster ?

I'll try:
Willis 11
Reynolds 11
Crocker Johnson 11
Durkin 14
Omot. 7
Asuma 7
Vaihola 6
Turner 6
Grove 3

 

[60's Guy]

1 Isaac Asuma 6-3 FR GOPHERS 5.6 ppg 2.9 reb
2 Grayson Grove 6-9 FR GOPHERS redshirted
3 Kai Shinholster. incoming Freshman
4. Jaylin Crocker-Johnson 6-8 Soph from Colorado St avg 9 ppg 4.4 Reb Announced 4/1/25
5. BJ Omot 6-8 JR from California Bears avg 10.8 ppg 3 reb Announced 4/2/25
6. Bobby Durkin 6-7 Soph from Davidson avg 13.5 ppg 5.9 reb Announced 4/7/25
7. Robert Vaihola 6-8 JR from San Jose St avg 7.5 ppg 7.5 reb. Announced 4/9/25
8. Langston Reynolds 6-4 JR from Northern Colorado avg 16.0 ppg 5.6 reb. Announced 4/13/25
9. Chansey Willis Jr 6-2 JR from Western Michigan avg 16.8 ppg 4.3 Reb. Annouced 4/14/25
10. Nehemiah Turner FR 6-10 from University of Central Arkansas avg 8.5 ppg on season but 18.5 last 10 games with high of 37 - 4.2 reb Announced 4-23-25
11.
The eight guys with scoring averages from last year (so far) total 87.7 incoming points per game for the Gophers going into this year.
Versus Niko's top 7 at CSU totaled 66 points per game entering last year if I read Eker correctly.
That's almost a 22 point head start.
And hopefully we have one more double figure guy still coming.

 

[march madness]

I think you're right about the core being established. Its a new era in college bb, and coaches have to keep tighter rotations with more playing time per guy.
That said, do you have any predictions for production based on last year's data of players coming to MN lineup? Noteworthy stats shown.

Willis 16.8pts/5.8asst/72.4%FT
Reynolds 8.6pts/41%3s
Crocker-Johnson 9pts/4.4reb/35.4%3s/76%FT
Durkin 11pts/5.2reb/35.5%3s/85.3%FT
Omot 10.8pts
Asuma 5.6pts/2.9reb/35.7%3s
Vaihola 7.6pts/7reb/62.9%FG
Turner 8.5pts/4.2reb
(Garcia) 19.2pts/7.5reb/37.3%3s/78.3%FT
Grove, Shinholster ?

Reynolds’s averaged 16ppg, 6 rebounds last yr.

 

[eker0016]

Vaihola 20 min 4 points
JCJ 20 min 8 points
Durkin 31 min 15 points
Asuma 28 min 9 points
Willis 33 min 11 points

Omot 26 min 13 points
Reynolds 22 min 9 points
Turner 20 min 6.5 points

Spot work: Grove, Shinholster, any additional pieces we bring in like the reserve from Temple Elijah Gray who averaged 20 mpg and has us in his top 3...that's a sign that Niko is filling the bottom of the roster. Maybe Graydon Lemke types too. Obviously these guys will get some minutes, the math equation doesn't need to work out on averages since not everybody will play every game.

I think Durkin is most likely our leading scorer, with Willis or Omot being the 2nd and 3rd options. Reynold a sparkplug/instant offense off the bench. I will be curious to see who starts between Asuma and Omot -- I kinda think Omot comes off the bench and he is versatile enough he could replace any of JCJ/Durkin/Asuma/Willis.

Either way it doesn't feel like we have a dominant go-to scorer like Garcia or Battle. For precedence, back in 2019-2020 Niko's top guys averaged:
Isaiah Stevens: 13 points ( in 32 minutes, highest on the squad)
Nico Carvacho: 12 points
David Roddy: 11 points
Adam Thistlewood: 10 points
Kendle Moore: 9 points
Kris Martin: 7 points

 

[Chico Gopher]

While I love having a lot of guys who are possible double figure scorers, my biggest fear is that they might also be double figure defenders in Big Ten play. I'd love to hear more about "stay in front", "Instinctively execute some of the nuances of higher level team defensive concepts" and "Not give up too many second chance points opportunities" abilities of these guys. I'd feel a lot more comfortable about our chances to do well in the Big Ten.

 

[bga1]

While I love having a lot of guys who are possible double figure scorers, my biggest fear is that they might also be double figure defenders in Big Ten play. I'd love to hear more about "stay in front", "Instinctively execute some of the nuances of higher level team defensive concepts" and "Not give up too many second chance points opportunities" abilities of these guys. I'd feel a lot more comfortable about our chances to do well in the Big Ten.

I am looking to the coach on this issue. On film, which is the best any of us has, this team appears to have a lot more quickness and length than last year's team. That's a start. The rest is taught + of course the effort has to be there. Medved has a good reputation on this issue.

 

[march madness]

While I love having a lot of guys who are possible double figure scorers, my biggest fear is that they might also be double figure defenders in Big Ten play. I'd love to hear more about "stay in front", "Instinctively execute some of the nuances of higher level team defensive concepts" and "Not give up too many second chance points opportunities" abilities of these guys. I'd feel a lot more comfortable about our chances to do well in the Big Ten.

Last year's team had only 2 good individual defenders: Odukale and Asuma, and Asuma was a freshman. I am not an analytics guy, just the eye test. Fox and Garcia were bad defensive rebounders. And the team overall lacked muscle and athleticism, even though it was a veteran team.

I have written before that the recruits, albeit mostly mid-majors, have way more defensive potential. Willis 6-2 190 Pg, fastest player above 6' in a decade or more.
Wing Reynolds 6-4 195 is super athletic, some have compared him to Vincent Grier.
SF Omot 6-8 200, is long and athletic. Those 3 plus Asuma could all be above average defenders.
We havent had 4 since the days of Mbakwe, R Williams, etc.
JCJ was a solid defender at CSU last year also.
The post combo of JCJ, Vaihola, and Turner, have size and strength. I think we will struggle on offense early as all the mid-majors are adjusting to better competition. And team defense will take a while, but I dont think we are outclassed in size and athleticism like the past few years.